una relazione di Daniela Corsini

Abstract

Nel 2020, l’epidemia di Covid-19 ha interrotto le catene di approvvigionamento globali e aumentato la domanda di beni rifugio. Nel 2021, il mercato globale dell’oro dovrebbe beneficiare di un rimbalzo della domanda di gioielli e di un contesto macroeconomico favorevole tra politiche monetarie espansive, tassi di interesse bassi e un aumento delle aspettative di inflazione.

Materie prime: pesano la variante Omicron e le politiche monetarie

L’impatto negativo della variante Omicron e la minaccia di politiche monetarie più restrittive rappresentano ora i principali ostacoli per i mercati delle materie prime e potrebbero innescare più ampie correzioni dei prezzi nel breve termine. Tuttavia, un temporaneo indebolimento dei corsi delle materie prime favorirebbe l’economia mondiale, contribuendo ad accelerare i tassi di crescita, e semplificherebbe il compito delle principali banche centrali, che potrebbero continuare a sostenere la ripresa economica invece di combattere le pressioni inflazionistiche.

Le prospettive macroeconomiche si confermano più deboli di quanto inizialmente previsto, a causa delle elevate pressioni inflazionistiche e dei timori di una stretta monetaria più rapida di quanto precedentemente anticipato da parte della Federal Reserve. Inoltre, l’inattesa diffusione della variante Omicron ha provocato una revisione al ribasso delle stime di domanda mondiale di materie prime, ritardando ulteriormente la ripresa in alcuni settori, come l’aviazione, o causando un peggioramento delle prospettive per le filiere globali a causa della persistente minaccia di colli di bottiglia logistici e chiusure temporanee delle attività economiche e produttive.

A nostro avviso, in questo momento l’impatto negativo della variante Omicron e la minaccia di politiche monetarie più restrittive rappresentano i principali ostacoli per i mercati delle materie prime e potrebbero innescare più ampie correzioni dei prezzi di mercato nel breve termine.

Tuttavia, un temporaneo indebolimento dei corsi delle materie prime addurrebbe grandi benefici all’economia mondiale, contribuendo ad accelerare i tassi di crescita, e semplificherebbe il compito delle principali banche centrali, che potrebbero continuare a sostenere la ripresa economica invece di combattere le pressioni inflazionistiche alimentate dalle materie prime.

Nel nostro scenario di base, dopo una probabile, più profonda, correzione a inizio anno, i prezzi della maggior parte delle materie prime potrebbero riprendere una traiettoria di moderato rialzo. Infatti, le quotazioni di petrolio e metalli non ferrosi potrebbero recuperare parte del terreno perso non appena le banche centrali avranno rassicurato i mercati e la crescita economica globale si sarà consolidata

Nel 2022, gli specifici fondamentali di domanda e offerta dovrebbero ritornare ad essere i principali driver dei prezzi delle materie prime, prevalendo sui fattori macroeconomici, e la volatilità dovrebbe essere alimentata soprattutto da flussi di notizie riguardanti interruzioni delle forniture, ritardi nelle filiere logistiche e previsioni sulle future dinamiche di consumo, soprattutto in Cina.

Nel medio e lungo termine, continuiamo ad attenderci un trend rialzista per i metalli industriali, mentre i prezzi di gas naturale ed energia dovrebbero registrare una progressiva diminuzione, pur mantenendo le consuete oscillazioni stagionali.

Previsioni per l’universo delle materie prime

Petrolio. A seguito del recente indebolimento dei fondamentali di domanda e offerta e dei timori di una più rapida stretta monetaria, abbiamo rivisto al ribasso le nostre stime sulle quotazioni del petrolio nel 2022. A nostro avviso, una temporanea correzione potrebbe spingere il Brent verso un livello medio di 65 dollari nel 1° trimestre 2022. Successivamente, le pressioni al rialzo sul prezzo del petrolio potrebbero riprendere forza a fronte di previsioni più ottimistiche sulla domanda mondiale, grazie a un aumento stagionale dei consumi di combustibili e, si spera, di un allentamento dei timori sull’andamento dell’epidemia. Di conseguenza, ci attendiamo che si consolidi un trend rialzista del prezzo del petrolio a partire dal 2° trimestre 2022. Nel nostro scenario di base, prevediamo una quotazione media per il Brent di 67,5 dollari nel 2022 e di 70 dollari nel 2023. La volatilità dovrebbe rimanere una importante caratteristica di mercato e contribuirà spesso ad amplificare movimenti intraday.

Mercati energetici. Anche se difficilmente potranno ripetersi ogni anno le condizioni estreme che hanno caratterizzato i mercati mondiali di gas ed energia alle porte della stagione invernale 2021/22, possiamo comunque attenderci più frequenti periodi di stress di mercato e una maggiore volatilità dei prezzi dell’energia, dovuti alla necessaria e inevitabile transizione verso fonti energetiche più pulite e alla progressiva penetrazione delle energie rinnovabili.

Metalli preziosi. Nel 2021, le quotazioni di tutti i principali metalli preziosi hanno registrato una flessione. Manteniamo una view negativa su oro e argento, poiché riteniamo che l’adozione di politiche monetarie più restrittive continuerà a ridurre la propensione a investire nei due metalli. Per contro, ci attendiamo un parziale recupero delle recenti perdite subite da platino e palladio, grazie alla probabile accelerazione della domanda proveniente dal settore automobilistico, dovuta all’allentamento della crisi dei semiconduttori.

Metalli industriali. L’inattesa diffusione della variante Omicron e le aspettative di una più rapida stretta da parte della Federal Reserve hanno determinato un aumento del rischio di una più marcata correzione dei prezzi di gran parte dei metalli industriali. Ora, prevediamo infatti una diminuzione delle quotazioni nel 1° trimestre 2022. Tuttavia, più avanti nel corso del 2022, gli specifici fondamentali di domanda e offerta dovrebbero tornare ad essere i principali driver e quindi le quotazioni dei metalli non ferrosi dovrebbero recuperare terreno. Nel medio/lungo termine, continuiamo ad attenderci un trend rialzista per i metalli industriali.

Merci agricole. L’agricoltura è il settore delle materie prime che esibisce la più marcata elasticità dell’offerta ai prezzi. Di conseguenza, le elevate quotazioni registrate nel 2021 dovrebbero contribuire ad aumentare l’offerta nel 2022, laddove possibile, e potrebbero determinare diffuse diminuzioni dei prezzi in anticipazione della prossima stagione dei raccolti. Tuttavia, anomale condizioni meteorologiche restano la minaccia più preoccupante e potrebbero alimentare volatilità, a causa degli impatti più gravi e meno prevedibili del cambiamento climatico e del riscaldamento globale sul settore.

Metalli preziosi: preferiamo il palladio all’oro

Nel 2021, le quotazioni dei metalli preziosi hanno registrato una flessione. Manteniamo una view negativa su oro e argento, poiché l’adozione di politiche monetarie più restrittive dovrebbe ridurre la propensione a investire nei due metalli. Per contro, ci attendiamo un parziale recupero di platino e palladio, grazie alla probabile accelerazione della domanda dal settore automobilistico. Pertanto, nell’ambito di un’asset allocation strategica a medio termine, preferiamo il palladio all’oro.

Nel 2021, le quotazioni di tutti i principali metalli preziosi hanno registrato una flessione. Oro e argento hanno subito pressioni al ribasso dovute al rafforzamento del dollaro americano e agli annunci di un’anticipazione della stretta monetaria da parte delle principali banche centrali. In effetti, le aspettative di un rialzo dei tassi scoraggiano gli investimenti in oro e altri asset infruttiferi, poiché ne determinano un aumento del costo opportunità. Manteniamo una view negativa su entrambi i metalli, poiché riteniamo che l’ostacolo rappresentato dall’attesa stretta monetaria continuerà a ridurre la propensione a investire in oro sui mercati finanziari. Attualmente, riteniamo che l’argento non sia abbastanza forte per potersi decorrelare dall’oro, nonostante i promettenti fondamentali a lungo termine.

Nel 2° semestre, anche le quotazioni di platino e palladio hanno subito una diminuzione, poiché la scarsità di semiconduttori ha avuto un impatto negativo più grave del previsto sulla produzione di autoveicoli e, di conseguenza, sul consumo di entrambi i metalli. Probabilmente i prezzi hanno toccato i minimi e attualmente ci attendiamo un parziale recupero delle recenti perdite subite, complice la probabile accelerazione della domanda dal settore automobilistico dovuta al graduale allentamento della crisi dei semiconduttori.

Nel nostro scenario di base, prevediamo un consolidamento della crescita globale e un graduale allentamento dei colli di bottiglia e della crisi dei semiconduttori. Le politiche monetarie dovrebbero subire una stretta, pur continuando a sostenere la ripresa dell’economia mondiale sinché necessario. Pertanto, nell’ambito di un’asset allocation strategica a medio termine, preferiamo il palladio all’oro.

Oro

Secondo gli ultimi dati pubblicati dal World Gold Council (WGC), nel 3° trimestre 2021 i mercati finanziari hanno ulteriormente perso appetito per l’oro a causa dell’attesa di adozione di politiche monetarie più restrittive e del dibattito riguardo l’avvio del tapering da parte della Fed.

Considerando i volumi di oro detenuti da ETF come proxy dell’appetito dei mercati finanziari per il metallo giallo, a fine settembre le posizioni totali detenuti da ETF erano vicine alle 3.600 tonnellate, poiché il comparto aveva registrato disinvestimenti pari a circa 156 tonnellate da inizio anno, la diminuzione più forte dal 2013. Nel solo 3° trimestre 2021, le posizioni in oro detenute da ETF sono diminuite di circa 27 tonnellate. Di conseguenza, nel trimestre questi fondi hanno fornito un contributo negativo alla domanda di oro, rappresentando una perdita netta pari al 2% circa della domanda globale. Si tratta di un cambiamento significativo del sentiment di mercato, considerando che i flussi degli ETF avevano fornito un contributo positivo pari al 4% circa del consumo globale nel 2° trimestre 2021 e avevano rappresentato ben il 40% della domanda mondiale nel 2° trimestre 2020, una percentuale senza precedenti.

Considerando la rilevanza dei flussi in oro da ETF, nel 3° trimestre 2021 la domanda mondiale di metallo prezioso ha subito una contrazione del 7% a/a, nonostante tutte le componenti non finanziarie siano aumentate. Infatti, la ripresa della crescita economica mondiale ha spinto al rialzo il consumo di oro nei settori gioielleria (+33% a/a) e tecnologia (+7% a/a), mentre i maggiori tassi di risparmio, i timori sui rischi di inflazione e l’incertezza sull’andamento dell’epidemia di coronavirus hanno alimentato la domanda di lingotti e monete (+18% a/a). Nel settore ufficiale, la domanda è stata sostenuta dal rinnovato interesse per la diversificazione delle riserve ufficiali. Infatti, le banche centrali sono passate dall’essere venditrici nette di oro nel 3° trimestre 2020 ad acquirenti nette di metallo nel 3° trimestre 2021.

Considerando le attese di politiche monetarie più restrittive e di una crescita globale ancora solida, nei prossimi trimestri le componenti non finanziarie della domanda di oro potrebbero rafforzare la loro ripresa, e prevediamo un incremento degli acquisti in gioielleria, tecnologia e nel settore ufficiale. Per contro, gli ETF aventi oro fisico come sottostante potrebbero essere penalizzati da maggiori disinvestimenti dovuti all’aumento del costo opportunità legato al possesso del metallo giallo, a fronte di aspettative di un rialzo dei rendimenti e dei rischi di rialzo dei tassi di interesse di riferimento.

Nel nostro modello di base, prevediamo una quotazione media per l’oro di circa 1.770 dollari nel 1° trimestre 2022 e una possibile diminuzione intorno a una media di 1.720 dollari nel 2022. Nonostante lo scenario monetario sfavorevole, ci attendiamo solo moderate pressioni al ribasso sulle quotazioni dell’oro, grazie al forte sostegno fornito dalla ripresa in atto nel settore della gioielleria, favorita dalla crescita economica, e dal settore ufficiale, poiché le banche centrali potrebbero sfruttare il calo delle quotazioni per diversificare le proprie riserve. Inoltre, i timori relativi all’inflazione potrebbero frenare i disinvestimenti dagli ETF.

A causa della forte incertezza che grava sullo scenario macroeconomico per l’impossibilità di prevedere l’andamento dei rischi epidemiologici, i prezzi record dell’energia e i persistenti colli di bottiglia che penalizzano le filiere logistiche e le attività manifatturiere, le nostre previsioni rimangono esposte a rischi significativi.

Per l’oro, lo scenario più pessimistico sarebbe quello di un contesto macroeconomico caratterizzato da un’ulteriore accelerazione della crescita mondiale favorita da un’attenuazione dei timori epidemiologici, dall’allentamento dei colli di bottiglia e da un forte impegno delle banche centrali a intervenire per impedire il surriscaldamento dell’economia. Infatti, in questo scenario gli investitori accorderebbero la loro preferenza agli asset ciclici piuttosto che ai beni rifugio e l’aumento dei tassi di interesse scoraggerebbe gli investimenti in oro. In questo scenario, le quotazioni del metallo potrebbero scendere rapidamente in prossimità di un supporto di 1.450 dollari.

Per contro, lo scenario più ottimistico per l’oro sarebbe quello di un contesto macroeconomico caratterizzato dal peggioramento delle prospettive di crescita globale, complici una diffusione incontrollata dell’epidemia e vaccini poco efficaci. Le banche centrali sarebbero quindi costrette a rinviare la stretta monetaria pianificata nel tentativo di sostenere le rispettive economie, mentre i colli di bottiglia delle filiere logistiche e produttive permarrebbero, alimentando le pressioni inflazionistiche. In questo scenario estremo di stagflazione, l’oro potrebbe ritestare i suoi massimi al di sopra dei 2.000 dollari.

Argento

Nel nostro modello di base, prevediamo un prezzo medio per l’argento di circa 24 dollari l’oncia sia per il 1° trimestre 2022 che per l’intero anno. Ci attendiamo che il metallo scambi per la maggior parte del tempo all’interno di un intervallo compreso tra 21 e 27 dollari l’oncia.

Rispetto all’oro, l’argento dovrebbe mantenersi più volatile, ma probabilmente non sarà abbastanza forte per potersi decorrelare dal metallo giallo. Di conseguenza, nei prossimi anni l’argento appare destinato a seguire il trend ribassista dell’oro, nonostante i fondamentali positivi e le previsioni di aumento della domanda globale, soprattutto nel settore delle tecnologie verdi.

Per i prossimi anni, ci attendiamo un rapporto tra oro e argento ancora leggermente superiore alla media di lungo periodo, data la ancora forte correlazione positiva di lungo termine tra i due metalli, nonostante il supporto fornito all’argento dalla transizione verde.

Platino e palladio

Le nostre previsioni sui metalli del gruppo del platino (PGM) sono strettamente connesse alle aspettative di una ripresa nel settore automobilistico e, di conseguenza, agli sviluppi della crisi dei semiconduttori. Infatti, secondo le stime di Johnson Matthey, l’85% circa della domanda di palladio proviene dalle marmitte catalitiche utilizzate per lo più nei veicoli dotati di motori a benzina, mentre oltre il 30% della domanda di platino proviene dalle marmitte catalitiche utilizzate per lo più nei veicoli dotati di motori diesel.

Nel 2021, i PGM hanno registrato un ciclo di espansione e crisi. In effetti, nel primo semestre platino e palladio hanno sovraperformato gli altri metalli preziosi, poiché i produttori di autoveicoli hanno rapidamente incrementato gli acquisti per rifornire i magazzini e soddisfare i nuovi ordinativi, nonostante i primi segnali di rallentamenti lungo le filiere produttive dovuti alla carenza di semiconduttori.

Successivamente, con il passare del tempo e il consolidamento della ripresa mondiale, la scarsità di semiconduttori si è aggravata, costringendo i produttori di autoveicoli a rivedere al ribasso i piani di produzione e, in alcuni casi, a bloccare alcuni stabilimenti produttivi. Di conseguenza, la domanda di PGM si è drasticamente ridotta. Diversi produttori hanno rivisto al ribasso le proprie previsioni di output, alimentando il pessimismo sui mercati finanziari e dubbi sulla futura crescita di consumi di platino e palladio nel settore.

Attualmente, i produttori di autoveicoli sono probabilmente ben forniti per soddisfare le loro esigenze di PGM a medio termine. Di conseguenza, finora i bassi prezzi non hanno attirato i consumatori, a causa delle stime ancora incerte sulla produzione futura. Più a lungo termine, nonostante ci sia ancora spazio per un aumento dei prezzi, probabilmente il potenziale di rialzo dei PGM è stato strutturalmente ridotto dalla crisi dei semiconduttori, poiché gli attuali ritardi nelle dinamiche di consumo dei PGM implicano che l’offerta beneficerà di più tempo per poter soddisfare la domanda e che l’offerta secondaria beneficerà di più tempo per tornare a fluire sul mercato, grazie a una ripresa delle attività di riciclo.

Nel nostro scenario di base, per il 1° trimestre 2022 ipotizziamo un prezzo medio per il platino e il palladio rispettivamente di 1.025 dollari l’oncia e di 2.000 dollari l’oncia. Secondo le nostre previsioni, nel 2022 le quotazioni potrebbero raggiungere un livello medio vicino a 1.075 dollari per il platino e 2.050 dollari per il palladio.

A nostro avviso, il palladio potrebbe aver toccato i minimi, poiché la soglia di 1.700 dollari dovrebbe rappresentare un forte supporto per il metallo. Per contro, il minimo di 950 dollari raggiunto a novembre è un debole supporto per il platino e riteniamo che il livello di 900 dollari costituisca un più solido livello minimo.

Manteniamo una view rialzista a lungo termine (nonostante la revisione al ribasso delle previsioni rispetto al mese di giugno dovuta ai disagi più gravi e prolungati del previsto lungo la filiera), poiché ci attendiamo un possibile miglioramento della crisi dei semiconduttori nel 2022, grazie ai piani per ampliare la produzione di microchip a livello mondiale, e quindi prevediamo una ripresa sia della produzione di autoveicoli che della domanda globale di PGM.

Appendice

Certificazione degli analisti

Gli analisti finanziari che hanno predisposto la presente ricerca, i cui nomi e ruoli sono riportati nella prima pagina del documento dichiarano che:
(1) Le opinioni espresse sulle società citate nel documento riflettono accuratamente l’opinione personale, indipendente, equa ed equilibrata degli analisti;
(2) Non è stato e non verrà ricevuto alcun compenso diretto o indiretto in cambio delle opinioni espresse.

Comunicazioni specifiche

Gli analisti citati non ricevono, stipendi o qualsiasi altra forma di compensazione basata su specifiche operazioni di investment banking.

Comunicazioni importanti

Il presente documento è stato preparato da Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. e distribuito da Intesa Sanpaolo SpA-London Branch (membro del London Stock Exchange) e da Intesa Sanpaolo IMI Securities Corp (membro del NYSE e del FINRA). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. si assume la piena responsabilità dei contenuti del documento. Inoltre, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. si riserva il diritto di distribuire il presente documento ai propri clienti. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. è una banca autorizzata dalla Banca d’Italia ed è regolata dall’FCA per lo svolgimento dell’attività di investimento nel Regno Unito e dalla SEC per lo svolgimento dell’attività di investimento negli Stati Uniti.

Comunicazioni importanti

Il presente documento è stato preparato da Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. e distribuito da Intesa Sanpaolo SpA-London Branch (membro del London Stock Exchange) e da Intesa Sanpaolo IMI Securities Corp (membro del NYSE e del FINRA). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. si assume la piena responsabilità dei contenuti del documento. Inoltre, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. si riserva il diritto di distribuire il presente documento ai propri clienti. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. è una banca autorizzata dalla Banca d’Italia ed è regolata dall’FCA per lo svolgimento dell’attività di investimento nel Regno Unito e dalla SEC per lo svolgimento dell’attività di investimento negli Stati Uniti.

Le opinioni e stime contenute nel presente documento sono formulate con esclusivo riferimento alla data di redazione del documento e potranno essere oggetto di qualsiasi modifica senza alcun obbligo di comunicare tali modifiche a coloro ai quali tale documento sia stato in precedenza distribuito. Le informazioni e le opinioni si basano su fonti ritenute affidabili, tuttavia nessuna dichiarazione o garanzia è fornita relativamente all’accuratezza o correttezza delle stesse.

Le performance passate non costituiscono garanzia di risultati futuri.

Lo scopo del presente documento è esclusivamente informativo. In particolare, il presente documento non è, né intende costituire, né potrà essere interpretato, come un documento d’offerta di vendita o sottoscrizione di alcun tipo di strumento finanziario. Inoltre, non deve sostituire il giudizio proprio di chi lo riceve.

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. non assume alcun tipo di responsabilità derivante da danni diretti, conseguenti o indiretti determinati dall’utilizzo del materiale contenuto nel presente documento.

Il presente documento potrà essere riprodotto o pubblicato esclusivamente con il nome di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A..

Il presente documento è stato preparato e pubblicato esclusivamente per, ed è destinato all’uso esclusivamente da parte di, Società che abbiano un’adeguata conoscenza dei mercati finanziari, che nell’ambito della loro attività siano esposte alla volatilità dei tassi di interesse, dei cambi e dei prezzi delle materie prime e che siano finanziariamente in grado di valutare autonomamente i rischi.

Tale documento, pertanto, potrebbe non essere adatto a tutti gli investitori e i destinatari sono invitati a chiedere il parere del proprio gestore/consulente per qualsiasi necessità di chiarimento circa il contenuto dello stesso.

Per i soggetti residenti nel Regno Unito: il presente documento non potrà essere distribuito, consegnato o trasmesso nel Regno Unito a nessuno dei soggetti rientranti nella definizione di “private customers” così come definiti dalla disciplina dell’FCA.

Per i soggetti di diritto statunitense: il presente documento può essere distribuito negli Stati Uniti solo ai soggetti definiti ‘Major U.S. Institutional Investors’ come definito dalla SEC Rule 15a-6. Per effettuare operazioni mobiliari relative a qualsiasi titolo menzionato nel presente documento è necessario contattare Intesa Sanpaolo IMI Securities Corp. negli Stati Uniti (vedi sotto il dettaglio dei contatti).

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. pubblica e distribuisce ricerca ai soggetti definiti ‘Major U.S. Institutional Investors’ negli Stati Uniti solo attraverso Intesa Sanpaolo IMI Securities Corp., 1 William Street, New York, NY 10004, U.S.A, Tel: (1) 212 326 1199.

Incentivi relativi alla ricerca

Ai sensi di quanto previsto dalla Direttiva Delegata 593/17 UE, il presente documento è classificabile quale incentivo non monetario di minore entità in quanto:
– contiene analisi macroeconomiche (c.d. Macroeconomic Research) o è relativo a Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (c.d. FICC Research) ed è reso liberamente disponibile al pubblico indistinto tramite il sito web della Banca – Q&A on Investor Protection topics – ESMA 35-43-349, Question 8 e 9.

Metodologia di distribuzione

Il presente documento è per esclusivo uso del soggetto che lo riceve da Intesa Sanpaolo e non potrà essere riprodotto, ridistribuito, direttamente o indirettamente, a terzi o pubblicato, in tutto o in parte, per qualsiasi motivo, senza il preventivo consenso espresso da parte di Intesa Sanpaolo.

Il copyright ed ogni diritto di proprietà intellettuale sui dati, informazioni, opinioni e valutazioni di cui alla presente scheda informativa è di esclusiva pertinenza del Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo, salvo diversamente indicato. Tali dati, informazioni, opinioni e valutazioni non possono essere oggetto di ulteriore distribuzione ovvero riproduzione, in qualsiasi forma e secondo qualsiasi tecnica ed anche parzialmente, se non con espresso consenso per iscritto da parte di Intesa Sanpaolo.

Chi riceve il presente documento è obbligato a uniformarsi alle indicazioni sopra riportate.

Metodologia di valutazione

Il presente documento è stato preparato sulla base della seguente metodologia.

Dati Macroeconomici
I commenti sui dati macroeconomici vengono elaborati sulla base di notizie e dati macroeconomici e di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream. Le previsioni macroeconomiche e sui tassi d’interesse sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo, tramite modelli econometrici dedicati. Le previsioni sono ottenute mediante l’analisi delle serie storico-statistiche rese disponibili dai maggiori data provider ed elaborate sulla base anche dei dati di consenso tenendo conto delle opportune correlazioni fra le stesse.

Previsioni Comparto Energetico
I commenti sul comparto energetico vengono elaborati sulla base di notizie e dati macroeconomici e di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream. Le stime di consenso, se non diversamente specificato, provengono dalle principali Agenzie internazionali sull’energia, su tutte l’IEA (International Energy Agency – che si occupa del settore a livello mondiale), l’EIA (Energy Information Administration – istituto che si occupa specificatamente del settore energetico USA) e l’OPEC. Le previsioni sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo tramite modelli dedicati.

Previsioni Comparto Metalli
I commenti sul comparto metalli vengono elaborati sulla base di notizie e dati macroeconomici e di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream.
Le stime di consenso sui metalli preziosi, se non diversamente specificato, provengono principalmente dalla GFMS, la storica agenzia di previsioni basata a Londra. Le previsioni riguardano: oro, argento, platino e palladio. Le previsioni sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo tramite modelli dedicati.
Le stime di consenso sui metalli industriali, se non diversamente specificato, provengono principalmente dalla Brook Hunt, agenzia di previsioni indipendente che dal 1975 redige statistiche e previsioni su metalli e minerali, e dal World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), una struttura indipendente di ricerca sul mercato globale dei metalli industriali che pubblica una serie di analisi statistiche con cadenza mensile, trimestrale e annuale. Le previsioni sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo tramite modelli dedicati.

Previsioni Comparto Agricolo
I commenti sul comparto agricolo vengono elaborati sulla base di notizie e dati macroeconomici e di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream.
Le stime di consenso sui prodotti agricoli sono molteplici. Ogni singolo paese ha la propria agenzia interna di statistica che stima e prevede i raccolti, la capacità produttiva, la quantità di offerta di prodotti e soprattutto la quantità (assoluta e percentuale) di terra disponibile per la messa a coltura di un determinato prodotto.
A livello internazionale le principali agenzie sono: l’USDA (United States Department of Agricolture) che, oltre a fornire i dati relativi al territorio americano, si occupa in generale anche del settore granaglie a livello mondiale mediante il sottocomparto della FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service); l’Economist Intelligence Unit, del Gruppo Economist, che si occupa trasversalmente di tutti i prodotti agricoli a livello mondiale; e la CONAB (Companhia Naciònàl de Abastecimento), l’agenzia del Governo brasiliano che si occupa di agricoltura (con un occhio di riguardo per il caffè) e che fornisce anche uno sguardo su tutto il continente sudamericano.
Le previsioni sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo tramite modelli dedicati.

Livelli tecnici
I commenti sui livelli tecnici si basano sulle notizie e i dati di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream. Le previsioni sui livelli tecnici di interesse sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo tramite modelli tecnici dedicati. Le previsioni sono ottenute mediante l’analisi delle serie storico-statistiche rese disponibili dai maggiori data provider ed elaborate sulla base anche dei dati di consenso tenendo conto delle opportune correlazioni fra le stesse. Vi è inoltre un approfondimento legato alla scelta degli opportuni strumenti derivati che meglio rappresentano il comparto o la specifica commodity su cui si vuole investire.

Raccomandazioni
Outlook Negativo: la raccomandazione di outlook Negativo per un settore è un’indicazione di ampio respiro. Essa indica non solo il deteriorarsi delle condizioni di prezzo degli indici o dei future che meglio rappresentano la materia prima in questione (quindi il ridursi di una performance di prezzo), ma implica anche la riduzione delle previsioni produttive, climatiche e di approvvigionamento (energetico o idrico) che caratterizzano, più di altri strumenti finanziari, questi comparti.
Outlook Neutrale: la raccomandazione di outlook Neutrale per un settore è un’indicazione che abbraccia molti aspetti. Essa indica che la combinazione delle previsioni di prezzo per gli indici e i future e l’insieme delle condizioni produttive, climatiche e di approvvigionamento (energetico o idrico) porteranno ad un movimento laterale dei prezzi o delle scorte o della capacità produttiva, registrando perciò performance nulle o minime per il comparto in esame.
Outlook Positivo: la raccomandazione di outlook Positivo per un settore è un’indicazione di ampio spettro. Essa indica non solo il miglioramento netto delle condizioni di prezzo degli indici o dei future che meglio rappresentano la materia prima in questione (quindi una performance positiva di prezzo), ma implica anche il miglioramento delle previsioni produttive, climatiche e di approvvigionamento (energetico o idrico) che caratterizzano, più di altri strumenti finanziari, questi comparti.

Frequenza e validità delle previsioni

Le indicazioni di mercato si riferiscono a un orizzonte temporale di breve periodo (il giorno corrente o i giorni successivi, salvo diversa indicazione specificata nel testo). Le previsioni sono sviluppate su un orizzonte temporale compreso tra una settimana e 5 anni (salvo diversa indicazione specificata nel testo) e hanno una validità massima di tre mesi.

Comunicazione dei potenziali conflitti di interesse

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. e le altre società del Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo (di seguito anche solo “Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo”) si sono dotate del “Modello di organizzazione, gestione e controllo ai sensi del Decreto Legislativo 8 giugno 2001, n. 231” (disponibile sul sito internet di Intesa Sanpaolo, all’indirizzo: https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/it/governance/dlgs-231-2001) che, in conformità alle normative italiane vigenti ed alle migliori pratiche internazionali, include, tra le altre, misure organizzative e procedurali per la gestione delle informazioni privilegiate e dei conflitti di interesse, ivi compresi adeguati meccanismi di separatezza organizzativa, noti come Barriere informative, atti a prevenire un utilizzo illecito di dette informazioni nonché a evitare che gli eventuali conflitti di interesse che possono insorgere, vista la vasta gamma di attività svolte dal Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo, incidano negativamente sugli interessi della clientela.

In particolare, l’esplicitazione degli interessi e le misure poste in essere per la gestione dei conflitti di interesse – facendo riferimento a quanto prescritto dagli articoli 5 e 6 del Regolamento Delegato (UE) 2016/958 della Commissione, del 9 marzo 2016, che integra il Regolamento (UE) n. 596/2014 del Parlamento europeo e del Consiglio per quanto riguarda le norme tecniche di regolamentazione sulle disposizioni tecniche per la corretta presentazione delle raccomandazioni in materia di investimenti o altre informazioni che raccomandano o consigliano una strategia di investimento e per la comunicazione di interessi particolari o la segnalazione di conflitti di interesse e successive modifiche ed integrazioni, dal FINRA Rule 2241, così come dal FCA Conduct of Business Sourcebook regole COBS 12.4 – tra il Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo e gli Emittenti di strumenti finanziari, e le loro società del gruppo, nelle raccomandazioni prodotte dagli analisti di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. sono disponibili nelle “Regole per Studi e Ricerche” e nell’estratto del “Modello aziendale per la gestione delle informazioni privilegiate e dei conflitti di interesse”, pubblicato sul sito internet di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A all’indirizzo https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/it/research/RegulatoryDisclosures. Tale documentazione è disponibile per il destinatario dello studio anche previa richiesta scritta al Servizio Conflitti di interesse, Informazioni privilegiate ed altri presidi di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., Via Hoepli, 10 – 20121 Milano – Italia.

Inoltre, in conformità con i suddetti regolamenti, le disclosure sugli interessi e sui conflitti di interesse del Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo sono disponibili all’indirizzo https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/it/research/RegulatoryDisclosures/archivio-dei-conflitti-di-interesse ed aggiornate almeno al giorno prima della data di pubblicazione del presente studio. Si evidenzia che le disclosure sono disponibili per il destinatario dello studio anche previa richiesta scritta a Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. – Macroeconomic Analysis, Via Romagnosi, 5 – 20121 Milano – Italia.

Intesa Sanpaolo Spa agisce come market maker nei mercati all’ingrosso per i titoli di Stato dei principali Paesi europei e ricopre il ruolo di Specialista in Titoli di Stato, o similare, per i titoli emessi dalla Repubblica d’Italia, dalla Repubblica Federale di Germania, dalla Repubblica Ellenica, dal Meccanismo Europeo di Stabilità e dal Fondo Europeo di Stabilità Finanziaria.

a speech by Sara Giusti

Abstract

The jewellery industry has been severely affected by the Covid19 pandemic. World demand dropped sharply in 2020, hitted by shop closures, stop in tourism flows, decrease in purchasing power across global consumers, increase uncertainty and gold prices at maximum levels. The scenario for 2021 remains highly uncertain, depending on the evolution of pandemic, with a rebound in demand that will still leave jewellery market well below 2019 levels.

The Italian jewellery industry in 2021

World demand for gold jewellery continued to grow in the third quarter of 2021 (+33%), with a slowdown expected compared to the growth in the first two quarters, which were the hardest hit by the crisis-related downturn in 2020. During the summer months, the Italian jewellery industry continued the strong performance already seen at the beginning of the year and for the first nine months as a whole it was already above pre-COVID levels both with respect to turnover (+13.1%) and exports in terms of values (+6.9%) and quantity (+8.0%).

Commodities: hit by Omicron and monetary policies

The negative impact of the Omicron variant and the threat of more restrictive monetary policies now represent the worst headwinds for commodity markets and could trigger deeper corrections in market prices in the near term. However, temporarily weaker commodity prices would clearly benefit the global economy, contributing to an acceleration in growth rates, and simplify the task of the main central banks, which could continue supporting the global recovery instead of fighting commodity-driven inflationary pressures.

Precious metals: we favour palladium vs. gold

In 2021, all the main precious metals have fallen in price. We maintain a negative view on both gold and silver, as we think that the headwinds of more restrictive monetary policies will continue to weaken appetite for both metals on financial markets. On the contrary, we now expect that platinum and palladium could recover part of their recent losses, as demand from the automotive sector should pick up thanks to the easing semiconductor shortage. Thus, in a medium-term strategic asset allocation we would favour palladium vs. gold.

The Italian jewellery industry in 2021

The recovery in world demand for gold jewellery continued in the third quarter of 2021 (+33%), although at a slower pace than in the first two quarters (+54% in the first quarter and +62% in the second quarter) and with a lag of -14% compared to the pre-crisis period. The Italian jewellery industry continued its strong performance which brought it above the values of the first nine months of 2019 both with respect to turnover (+13.1%) and exports in terms of values (+6.9%) and quantity (+8.0%).

In the third quarter of 2021, world demand for gold jewellery recovered significantly on 2020 (+33% in quantity), although with a natural slowdown compared to the first two quarters (+54% in the first quarter and +62% in the second quarter), which were hit harder by the crisis in 2020 (Fig. 1). For the first nine months of 2021 as a whole, world demand still lagged behind 2019 by -14%. Thanks to the strong upturn in the first three months (+216%), China was the market with the strongest growth in 2021 (+84%), followed by India (+45%) and the Middle East (+43%), which were among the markets with the highest growth in the third quarter, along with Hong Kong (Fig. 2). Compared to the pre-crisis period, China and the United States were the most important markets, which have already surpassed 2019 levels by +4.1% and 17.1% respectively.

Italian exports of gold jewellery, on the other hand, fully recovered their pre-COVID values in the first nine months of 2021, both in terms of values (+6.9%) and quantity (+8.0%), with a strong upturn in the second quarter (+251% in values; +273% in quantity), which also continued in the third quarter with growth rates of around 60% (Figures 3-4).

In the main export markets, the United States retained its role as the primary market for Italian gold jewellery exports due to values that almost doubled compared to the first nine months of 2020 (+98%) and to the fact that they exceeded pre-COVID figures both in terms of values (+66.3%) and quantities (+44.5%). The significant growth in exports to the Arab Emirates also continued (+141.1% in values; +151.0% in quantities), which recovered the amounts for the first nine months of 2019 (+8.8%), although still lagging behind in terms of quantities (-12.8%). Of particular note was the trade with Ireland, as a result of the policies of foreign operators already present in 2020 that confirmed the use of the Irish market as a tax and logistics base for other markets, probably also including the United Kingdom (where imports from Italy plummeted -35.8% in the period January-September). Despite the significant rebound (+42.1% in values and +48.9% in quantity), exports to Switzerland lagged behind the figures for the first nine months of 2019 by more than -35%, probably also in this case reflecting the distribution policies of the large luxury brands that use Switzerland as a main logistics hub. Particularly noteworthy was the growth in sales to South Africa, which more than doubled on 2020, when they had grown despite the crisis generated by the pandemic (Table 1).

At local level, the figures already recorded in the first two quarters were confirmed, with stronger performance in the provinces of Vicenza and Arezzo, which posted an overall recovery compared to 2020 of +70% for Vicenza and +92% for Arezzo, while the Valenza district recorded growth of +27%. This performance resulted in a full recovery compared to the pre-crisis period for the Vicenza and Arezzo districts, with an increase of +17% compared to 2019, while Valenza still lagged behind by -36%, probably influenced more than the other two districts by the pricing policies of multinationals (the figure at local level is only available in values and not in quantity) (Figures 5-6).

In the period January-September 2021, exports of the Vicenza jewellery district amounted to EUR 1.2Bn with growth of over EUR 480M compared to the same period of 2020 (+69.9%) and also up compared to 2019 (+16.7%). Exports were driven above all by the strong sales to the United States, which more than doubled on 2020 (+113%) with a substantial increase also compared to the pre-crisis period (+79.9%), and by the significant growth in exports to South Africa (+82.4% compared to 2020 and +74.6% compared to 2019). The growth in exports to Malaysia, which was already significant in 2020 (+94.4%), also strengthened, and in the first nine months of 2021 it ranked as the sixth largest market compared to tenth in 2020. Exports to the United Arab Emirates (+6.2%) exceeded 2019 levels, while exports to Hong Kong were not recovering (-52.1%) (Table 2).

The Arezzo district also recovered the value of pre-COVID exports and at EUR 1.8Bn had increased its value by around EUR 880M compared to the first nine months of 2020 (+92.4%) and by EUR 270M compared to 2019 (+17.3%). Of particular significance was the growth of exports to the United States, which more than doubled compared to 2020 (+129.5%) and significantly exceeded 2019 (+87.8%), as well as to South Africa, which increased on the value in 2019 by more than EUR 80M, coming to represent 5.1% of district exports. Also noteworthy was the complete recovery in exports to the United Arab Emirates (+15.3%), which is the primary market, in addition to the recovery versus France (+15.2%) and Turkey (+30.9%), while exports to Hong Kong continued to fall compared to 2019 (-37.1%) (Table 3).

The Valenza Po jewellery district, on the other hand, still showed a lag compared to 2019 (-36.2%) and, with a value of over EUR 1Bn in exports, recorded growth of EUR 222M compared to 2020 (+27.3%). The analysis of the countries of destination shows that this district was affected by the logistic choices of some major operators, which can be seen in the strong increase in sales to Ireland, which became the primary market from 2020, whereas in 2019 it accounted for just over 4% of exports. In contrast, exports to France were negatively affected, falling both in 2020 (-34.7%) and in 2019 (-73%), as well as exports to Switzerland (-23.4% in 2020 and -83.2% in 2019) (Table 4).

The production and turnover indices confirmed the signs of recovery: in the average for the first nine months of 2021, industrial production and turnover in the sector grew by around 65% compared to 2020, but they also increased by 13.1% in turnover and 8.5% in production when compared to the average for 2019 (Fig. 7). The latest results for October also confirmed this trend with indices increasing 15% over 2019 in terms of turnover and production.

The outlook for the global economy is currently very uncertain, due to the persistent supply bottlenecks, but real growth expectations remain robust in 2022. The Italian jewellery industry has shown itself to be well capable of responding to the crisis, thanks to the strong presence in international markets, with a growing focus on digitalisation, brand policies and sustainability, bolstered by the quality and elegance of Italian-made jewellery.

a speech by Ulrich Klotz

Abstract

In the present paper, optimum process parameters were determined for typical 950Pt jewellery alloy. Optimum densities of <99.9% were reached for a wide range of processing parameters. However, the resulting density was found to depend significantly on the part geometry and on the chosen support structure. The supports have to take into account for the geometrical orientation of the part relative to the laser build direction and the orientation on the build plate. Local overheating is responsible for porosity in these areas. Therefore, the supports play an important role in the thermal management have to be optimized for each part. The design of suitable supports was successfully demonstrated for a typical jewellery ring sample.

1 Introduction

The additive manufacturing of platinum alloys jewellery items found increasing interest in the last years. However, so far most work focused on gold alloys [1–4] and publications presented results on platinum alloys [5–7] Two aspects promote such interest: on one hand, the investment casting process of platinum alloys is rather challenging and struggles with casting defects such as shrinkage porosity, micro porosity or investment reactions [8–10]. On the other hand the physical properties of platinum alloys, particularly the reflectivity of the infrared laser light, are much more similar to steel or titanium alloys [11]. This makes the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process much easier compared to gold or silver alloys. In the past, the LPBF process of different 950Pt alloys has been successfully demonstrated for several alloys on different machines [5,12].
In the present work LPBF trials were conducted with a commercially available 950Pt-Au-In alloy (alloy 951Pt P1, C. Hafner, Germany). The LPBF process parameter were optimized concerning minimum porosity. The effect of support structures was studied and effects on alloy chemistry and defects are described in detail.

2 Experimental

2.1 Laser Powder Bed Fusion experiments

A MLab R LaserCUSING machine (ConceptLaser/GE Additive, Lichtenfels, Germany) with a laser power of max. 100 W was used in this study. The laser power was set to 95 W and kept constant for all tests. Despite the relatively low laser power a sufficient energy density could be achieved because of the small spot size (30 µm) of the machine. A two-step scanning routine was applied where the contour scan was made prior to the hatch scan [1]. The contour scan speed was 600 mm/s for all tests. The hatch scan parameters were varied to find optimum parameters with minimum porosity in a test part. The hatch distance and the laser speed were changed from 27 – 63 µm and 100 – 600 mm/s, respectively. The powder was provided as alloyed powder. It had a size distribution of 5 -30 µm (d10/d90 value) and was applied with rubber lip wiper in layers of 20 µm.
The test part has an angular shape with wires and plates of different diameters similar to the one described in [1]. The support structure and the slicing of the model was done with the software AutoFab. The part was oriented in a 45° angle relative to the movement of the wiper.

2.2 Microstructure investigation and porosity measurement

The test parts were embedded in epoxy (EPO Fix) and metallographically prepared. Grinding was done with grit P320, P600, P1200 paper followed by subsequent polishing with 9 µm and 3 µm diamond paste The last polishing step was made with 0,04 µm OPS suspension. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images were obtained by a ZEISS Gemini instrument that is equipped with an energy dispersive x-ray (EDX) instrument for local chemical analysis.
The porosity measurement was conducted by image analysis with the software AxioVision (ZEISS, Germany) on a stitched light optical image recorded at 5x optical magnification (Figure 1). The horizontal part of the sample was selected as region of interest (ROI). In order to determine the porosity the image was binarized using a threshold value at the minimum of the histogram. The porosity value is given as the percentage of black pixels inside the ROI.

3 Results

3.1 Process parameter optimization

Figure 1 shows two examples of test samples that were produced by different sets of laser parameters. The right part shows the optimum process parameters with minimum porosity. Figure 2 illustrates the effect of the laser parameters on the porosity. The lowest porosity values of about 0,1 % (99,9% density) were achieved for a hatch distance of 63 µm. At this hatch distance, the porosity levels are nearly independent of the laser speed. The porosity increases with decreasing hatch distance and increasing laser speed. Both, decreasing hatch distance and increasing laser speed result in lack-of-fusion porosity. A hatch distance of 63 µm and a laser sped of 500 mm/s were selected as optimum parameters throughout this study.

3.2 Design of support structures for jewellery parts

Two jewellery items, typical engagement rings with three or seven stones, were provided by project partners for additive manufacturing. The rings were supported by columnar hollow supports in areas less than 45° to the build plate (Figure 3). The supports were symmetrical on both sides of the ring. The wiper applied the powder on the build plate perpendicular to the plane of the ring shank. The laser direction was from right to left. Defects occurred on the right side in unsupported areas of the ring shank. Along a certain length of the ring shank, material is missing, but only on the right, outer side of the ring shank. The problem starts at the end of the support structure and it ends at a build angle of 90°.

In order to understand the problem, the AM process was interrupted at a height of 7 mm, which is in the problematic region of the ring shank. An SEM investigation of the last built layer (Figure 4) indicates a perfect surface on the left side of ring. On the right side however, the surface appears highly porous. The surface is uneven with significant balling of the melt pool. The view on the outer surface of the ring shank and a metallographic section through the centre of the ring shank (Figure 5) show powder particles that stick to the surface. The powder particles itself show a layer of much finer particles that appears like a kind of condensate on the surface. Local chemical analysis using EDX showed an enrichment of the condensate in the alloying Au and In compared to the ring shank material.

4 Discussion

4.1 Parameter optimization

Suitable LPBF parameters of the chosen 950Pt platinum could be determined to obtain a porosity below 0,1 %. The porosity is a factor of 10 lower compared to surface treated 18k 3N gold alloys that were produced using the same machine [1]. Staiger [13] investigated the width and depth of laser tracks on metallic sheet material and found that the width and depth of a 950 platinum alloy was comparable to austenitic stainless steel and grade 5 titanium. 18k palladium white gold showed slightly higher width and depth compared to 950 platinum, while 18k yellow and red gold showed much lower width and depth of the laser lines. The similarity of 950 platinum to austenitic stainless steel and grade 5 titanium is due to its similar reflectivity for the infrared light and the similar thermal conductivity.
The porosity of parts produced by LPBF is a function of scan speed [14,15]. At low scan speed, i.e. high energy tendency the porosity is relatively high due to keyhole porosity. Keyholing could be achieved on 950 platinum sheet only at extremely low scan speed (25-50 mm/s at 95W) [13]. According to Tang et al. [15] the lowest porosity is a achieved in a range of medium scan speed. For 950 platinum alloys, this was achieved in the present study at 100-600 mm/s (hatch distance 63 µm, laser power of 95 W, Figure 2). If the scan speed is further increased, Tang et al. [15] describe an increase of porosity due to lack of fusion. This work showed lack of fusion in 950 platinum for hatch distances below 63 µm. The previous study on 18K yellow gold [1] found lack of fusion for the complete range of process parameters. Fully dense gold parts could be achieved at much higher laser powers of 375 W [4].

4.2 Optimization of the support structure

The condensation of material that was observed on the defective ring shank (Figure 5) requires an initial evaporation of alloying elements. This is a clear indication of localised excessive heating of the material. In order to identify the reason for such overheating the process condition were analysed in detail. It appears that the laser is working from the right to the left during the hatch scan. The different curvature of the ring on left and right side relative to the laser direction results in insufficient heat dissipation on the right side of the ring shank. The laser is scanning from right to left. Therefore, it first encounters an unsupported powder bed with limited heat dissipation on the right side of the ring shank. As a consequence, about 50% of ring shank cross section (Figure 4) is locally overheated, which results in the evaporation of the lower melting elements (Au, In) of the alloys. The left ring shank however does not sufer from such overheating because the laser starts on a well supported powder bed. On the very left side of the left ring shank the already lasered layer provides sufficient heat dissipation to prevent overheating.
In order to prevent the defective ring shank, sufficient heat dissipation has to be provided on the right side of the ring shank by additional supports. The critical angle that requires additional supports was determined to be ca. 61° and 72° on the left and the right side of the ring shank, respectively. The critical angles on either side were determined by an optical quality control of the rings.The supports should reach up to 6 mm and 8 mm on the left and the right side of the ring, respectively. Such regions are marked in red in Figure 6. These angles are much larger than a conventional rule of thumb that only surfaces with an angle below 45° should require supports.

Finally, all regions with smaller angles relative to the building plate were supported. Figure 7 shows the support structures before and after optimization. With the optimized supports the ring could be manufactured without defects Figure 8. Polishing and stone setting resulted in perfect finish.

5 Summary and Conclusions

The additive manufacturing of 950 platinum alloys was successfully demonstrated by the laser powder bed fusion technology. The optimum process parameters were a hatch distance of 63 µm and a laser speed of 100-600 mm/s at a laser power of 95 W (Nd-YAG laser with 1064nm wavelength and a spot size of 30 µm). For such parameters a residual porosity below 0,1 % could be reached. A smaller hatch distance resulted in lack of fusion porosity. 950 platinum alloys can be processed with similar parameters like austenitic stainless steel (316L).
Jewellery ring samples were prepared with conventional support structures. However, it appeared that the supports have to take into account machine-specific laser scanning procedures. Additional supports were required at positions were the laser encounters an unsupported powder bed, if the orientation of the parts was below ca. 72° relative to the build plate. Otherwise, excessive heating resulted in the evaporation of material and defective surfaces. Therefore, a careful design of the supports structures has to be considered as part of the LPBF process optimization.

6 Acknowledgements

This research project was supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) through the AiF (IGF no. 20670N) based on a decision taken by the German Bundestag. We kindly acknowledge the support of the members of the users committee, in particular, the provision of 950Pt alloy powder and 3D CAD models by C. Hafner GmbH+Co.KG and Christian Bauer Schmuck GmbH+Co.KG, respectively. We thank the colleagues at fem for their contribution, namely Dario Tiberto, Daniel Blessing and for the additive manufacturing trials, metallography and SEM.

7 References

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[12] T. Laag, J. Heinrich, Powder Processing of Platinum Group Metals: Advantages and Challenges, in: St. Fe Symp. 2018, Met-Chem Research, ABQ, NM, USA, 2018: pp. 327–343. https://www.santafesymposium.org/2018-santa-fe-symposium-papers/2018-powder-processing-of-platinum-group-metals-advantages-and-challenges?rq=platinum (accessed November 12, 2021).
[13] R. Staiger, Einfluss der Prozessparameter und er Werkstoffeigenschaften bei der additiven Fertigung von metallischen Werkstoffen, Bachelor Thesis, HFU Hochschule Furtwangen, 2019.
[14] H. Gong, K. Rafi, H. Gu, T. Starr, B. Stucker, Analysis of defect generation in Ti–6Al–4V parts made using powder bed fusion additive manufacturing processes, Addit. Manuf. 1–4 (2014) 87–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addma.2014.08.002.
[15] M. Tang, P.C. Pistorius, J.L. Beuth, Prediction of lack-of-fusion porosity for powder bed fusion, Addit. Manuf. 14 (2017) 39–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addma.2016.12.001.

a speech by Daniela Corsini

Abstract

In 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic disrupted global supply chains and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. In 2021, the global gold market should benefit from a rebound in jewelry demand and a supportive macroeconomic environment amid expansionary monetary policies, low interest rates and a pick-up in inflation expectations.

Commodities: hit by Omicron and monetary policies

The negative impact of the Omicron variant and the threat of more restrictive monetary policies now represent the worst headwinds for commodity markets and could trigger deeper corrections in market prices in the near term. However, temporarily weaker commodity prices would clearly benefit the global economy, contributing to an acceleration in growth rates, and simplify the task of the main central banks, which could continue supporting the global recovery instead of fighting commodity-driven inflationary pressures.

The macroeconomic outlook remains weaker than earlier expected due to persistently high inflation pressures, and concerns about a quicker than earlier expected pace of tightening from the Federal Reserve. In addition, the unexpected spread of the Omicron variant forced downward revisions to estimates about global commodity demand, further delaying the recovery in some sectors, like the aviation industry, or worsening the prospects of global supply chains due to the persistent threat of logistic bottlenecks and lockdowns.

In our opinion, the negative impact of the Omicron variant and the threat of more restrictive monetary policies now represent the worst headwinds for commodity markets and could trigger deeper corrections in market prices in the near term.

However, temporarily weaker commodity prices would clearly benefit the global economy, contributing to an acceleration in growth rates, and simplify the task of the main central banks, which could continue supporting the global recovery instead of fighting commodity-driven inflationary pressures.

According to our baseline scenario, after a probable, deeper correction in early 2022, most commodities could resume a path of modest price increases. In fact, market prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals could recover part of the lost ground as soon as central banks reassure markets and global economic growth consolidates.

In 2022, specific supply and demand fundamentals should come back as core drivers of commodity prices, prevailing over macroeconomic factors, and volatility should be mainly fuelled by news flows about supply disruptions, delays across the logistic chains and forecasts about future consumption patterns, especially in China.

In the medium- and long-term, we still forecast a bullish trend for industrial metals, while natural gas and energy prices should gradually decrease, maintaining their usual seasonal swings.

Forecasts for the commodities universe

Crude oil. Given the recent weakening in crude oil supply and demand fundamentals and concerns about a quicker pace toward restrictive monetary policies, we revised downwards our estimates for crude prices in 2022. In our opinion, a temporary correction could push Brent near an average of USD 65 in 1Q22. Then, upward pressures on crude prices could resume strength driven by more optimistic forecasts about global crude demand, thanks to a seasonal increase in fuel consumption and, hopefully, easing concerns about the development of the epidemic. Thus, we envisage a rising trend in crude prices from the 2Q22 onwards. In our baseline scenario, we now forecast that on average Brent should record a level of USD 67.5 in 2022 and USD 70 in 2023. Volatility should remain an important market feature and will often contribute to amplify intra-day market movements.

Energy. Although the extreme conditions faced by global gas and power markets ahead of the 2021/22 winter are unlikely to repeat every year, we can expect further moments of market stress and more volatility on energy prices, as the necessary and ineluctable transition toward cleaner energy sources proceeds and the penetration of renewable energies progresses.

Precious metals. In 2021, all the main precious metals have fallen in price. We maintain a negative view on both gold and silver, as we think that the headwinds of more restrictive monetary policies will continue to weaken appetite for both metals on financial markets. On the contrary, we now expect that platinum and palladium could recover part of their recent losses, as demand from the automotive sector should pick up thanks to the easing semiconductor shortage.

Industrial metals. After the unexpected spread of the Omicron variant and talks about a quicker pace of tightening from the Federal Reserve, the risk of a deeper correction in most industrial metals’ prices intensified and now we see lower prices in 1Q22. However, later in 2022 specific supply and demand fundamentals should come back as core drivers of metals’ prices, and non-ferrous metals’ prices should recover ground. In the medium- and long-term, we still forecast a bullish trend for industrial metals.

Agricultural products. Agriculture is the most supply-elastic commodity sector. Thus, the high prices recorded in 2021 should contribute to expand supplies in 2022, when possible, and could trigger widespread price declines in anticipation of the next harvest season. However, unusual weather patterns remain the most worrying threat and could fuel volatility due to deeper and less predictable impacts of climate change and global warming on the sector.

Precious metals: we favour palladium vs. gold

In 2021, all the main precious metals have fallen in price. We maintain a negative view on both gold and silver, as we think that the headwinds of more restrictive monetary policies will continue to weaken appetite for both metals on financial markets. On the contrary, we now expect that platinum and palladium could recover part of their recent losses, as demand from the automotive sector should pick up thanks to the easing semiconductor shortage. Thus, in a medium-term strategic asset allocation we would favour palladium vs. gold.

In 2021, all the main precious metals have fallen in price. Gold and silver suffered downward pressures due to a stronger U.S. dollar and announcements from the main central banks anticipating tighter monetary policies. In fact, expectations of higher rates discourage investments in gold and other non-interest-bearing assets as they increase their opportunity cost. We maintain a negative view on both metals, as we think that the headwinds of more restrictive monetary policies will continue to weaken appetite for gold on financial markets. Currently, silver isn’t strong enough to decouple from gold despite the promising fundamentals in the long term.

In the second half, platinum and palladium prices also dropped, as the global shortage of semiconductors had a deeper than expected negative impact on global vehicle production and thus on consumption of both metals. Prices probably bottomed and we now expect that platinum and palladium could recover part of their recent losses, as demand from the automotive sector should pick up thanks to the easing semiconductor shortage.

In our baseline scenario, we envisage a consolidation in global growth and a gradual easing of bottlenecks and semiconductor shortage. Monetary policies should tighten, but remain supportive of the global economic recovery as long as necessary. Thus, in a medium-term strategic asset allocation we would favour palladium vs. gold.

Gold

The latest data published by the World Gold Council (WGC) show that appetite for gold on financial markets further deteriorated during 3Q21 as monetary policies were tightening and the Fed progressed toward the planned tapering.

Considering ETFs’ holdings as a proxy for gold appetite on financial markets, at the end of September global holdings were close to 3,600 tons, as the sector had recorded outflows worth about 156 tons since January 2021, the largest decline since 2013. In 3Q21, ETFs’ gold holdings decreased by about 27 tons, thus ETFs’ contribution to gold demand turned negative during the quarter, representing a net loss worth about 2% of global demand. It is a remarkable change in market sentiment, when considering that ETFs’ flows were a positive contributor worth about 4% of global consumption in 2Q21 and covered a stunning 40% of demand in 2Q20.

Given the relevance of ETFs’ flows, in 3Q21 global gold demand contracted by 7% y/y, although all non-financial components of gold demand rose. In fact, a recovery in global economic growth boosted gold consumption in the jewellery (+33% y/y) and technology sectors (+7% y/y), while higher saving rates, concerns about inflation risks and uncertainty about epidemiological developments fuelled demand for bars and coins (+18% y/y). In the official sector, a renewed appetite in diversifying official reserves supported gold demand. In fact, central banks turned from net sellers of gold in 3Q20 to net buyers of the precious metal in 3Q21.

Given the current expectations of tighter monetary policies and still robust global growth, over the next quarters the non-financial components of gold demand may extend their recovery, and we envisage higher purchases from the jewellery, technology and official sectors. On the contrary, gold-backed ETFs could suffer from more outflows due to an increase in the opportunity cost of holding gold, amid expectations of higher yields and threats of higher benchmark interest rates.

According to our baseline model, we forecast that gold could average about USD 1,770 in 1Q22 and could decline toward a USD 1,720 average in 2022. Despite the unfavourable monetary framework, we envisage only moderate downside pressures on gold prices thanks to the important support of the ongoing recovery in the jewellery sector, which should gain support from global growth, and of the official sector, as central banks could take advantage of lower gold prices to diversify their reserves. In addition, inflation concerns could limit the volumes of ETFs’ outflows.

Given the exceptionally high level of uncertainty that clouds the macroeconomic framework due to unpredictable development in epidemiological risks, record high energy prices and persistent bottlenecks negatively affecting logistic chains and manufacturing activities, our forecasts remain subject to significant risks.

The worst-case scenario for gold would be a macroeconomic environment characterized by a further acceleration in global growth, thanks to fading epidemiologic concerns, easing bottlenecks and a strong commitment from central banks to intervene and prevent the economy from overheating. In fact, under this scenario investors would favour cyclical assets against safe haven assets, while higher interest rates would also discourage gold holdings. Under such worst-case scenario, gold could quickly drop toward a USD 1,450 support.

On the contrary, the best-case scenario for gold would be a macroeconomic environment characterized by a deterioration in the prospects for global growth, possibly driven by a spreading epidemic coupled with scarcely effective vaccines. Central banks would be forced to postpone a planned tightening of monetary conditions in an effort to support their economies, while bottlenecks to logistic and supply chains would persist, fuelling inflation pressures. Under such extreme scenario of stagflation, gold could retest its peaks above USD 2,000.

Silver

According to our baseline model, silver should trade close to an average price of USD 24 an ounce both in 1Q22 and in 2022. We expect that the metal could remain most of the time in a trading range between USD 21 and USD 27 an ounce.

Relative to gold, silver should maintain higher volatility, but it will not probably be strong enough to decouple from the yellow metal. Thus, silver will probably follow gold’s downward trajectory over the next years despite positive fundamentals and expectations of expanding global demand, especially in green technologies.

We expect that the gold/silver ratio could remain slightly above its long-term average over the next years, as the long-term positive correlation between silver and gold should remain significant, despite the support granted to silver by the green transition.

Platinum and palladium

Our forecasts for platinum-group metals (PGM) are strictly connected with expectations about a possible recovery in the automotive sector and thus with developments in the semiconductor crisis. In fact, according to estimates from Johnson Matthey, about 85% of palladium demand comes from autocatalysis mainly used in vehicles mounting gasoline-powered engines, while more than 30% of platinum demand comes from autocatalysis mainly used in vehicles mounting diesel-powered engines.

In 2021, PGM have gone through a boom and bust cycle. In fact, in the first half platinum and palladium overperformed other precious metals because car manufacturers quickly expanded their purchases to restock their warehouses and satisfy new vehicle orders, despite the first signs of disruptions to global supply chains due to semiconductors’ shortage.

Then, as time passed, and the global recovery consolidated, semiconductor scarcity deepened and forced car manufacturers to scale down their output plans and even halt some production facilities. As a consequence, PGM demand faded. Several car producers revised downwards their output guidance, fuelling pessimism on financial markets and raising doubts about future consumption growth for platinum and palladium in the sector.

Now, car producers are probably adequately supplied to meet their medium-term needs of PGM. Thus, so far low prices have failed to attract consumers due to still uncertain estimates about future vehicle production. In the longer term, although we still see ample room for a recovery in prices, probably the upward potential for PGM prices has been structurally lowered by the semiconductor crisis, as the current delays in PGM consumption patterns imply more time for global PGM supply to satisfy demand and more time for secondary supply to flow back in the market thanks to a pick-up in recycling activities.

Our baseline scenario now assumes an average platinum price of USD 1,025 an ounce and an average palladium price of USD 2,000 an ounce in 1Q22. We forecast that in 2022 platinum could trade near a USD 1,075 average and palladium near a USD 2,050 average.

In our opinion, palladium probably bottomed in late November, as USD 1,700 should represent a strong support for the metal. On the contrary, the USD 950 low reached in November is a weaker support for platinum, and we see the level of USD 900 as a more solid floor.

We maintain a bullish view in the long term (albeit forecast numbers have been revised downward from previous forecasts due to longer and deeper than expected disruptions along the supply chain) because we expect that the semiconductor crisis could ease in 2022, following plans to expand the global output of microchip, and both vehicle production and global demand for PGM should pick up.

Appendix

Analyst Certification

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Valuation Methodology

This document has been prepared in accordance with the following method.

Macroeconomic Data
Comments on macroeconomic data are prepared based on macroeconomic and market news and data available via information providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv-Datastream. Macroeconomic and interest rate forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated econometric models. Forecasts are obtained using analyses of historical-statistical data series made available by the leading data providers and also on the basis of consensus data, taking account of appropriate connections between them.

Forecasts in the Energy Sector
Comments on the Energy Sector are prepared based on macroeconomic and market news and data available via information providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv-Datastream. Unless otherwise stated, consensus estimates come from the leading international energy Agencies, primarily the IEA (International Energy Agency – which deals with this sector on a global scale), the EIA (Energy Information Administration – an institute that deals specifically with the US energy sector) and OPEC. Forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated models.

Forecasts in the Metals Sector
Comments on the Metals Sector are prepared based on macroeconomic and market news and data available via information providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv-Datastream.
Unless otherwise specified consensus estimates on precious metals come mainly from GFMS, the long-established forecasting agency based in London. The forecasts cover gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated models.
Unless otherwise stated, consensus estimates for industrial metals come mainly from Brook Hunt, an independent forecasting agency which has prepared statistics and predictions on metals and minerals since 1975, and from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), an independent research body on the global market of industrial metals which publishes a series of monthly, quarterly and annual statistical analyses. Forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated models.

Forecasts in the Agricultural Sector
Comments on the Agricultural Sector are prepared based on macroeconomic and market news and data available via information providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv-Datastream.
There are several consensus estimates on agricultural products. Each individual country has its own internal statistics agency that estimates and forecasts crops, production capacity, the product supply quantities and, above all, the amount of land available for cultivating a particular product, in both absolute and percentage terms.
At an international level, the main agencies are: the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) which, in addition to providing data on the US territory, also deals in general with the grain industry worldwide through the FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service); the Economist Intelligence Unit of the Economist Group which deals with all agricultural products on a global scale; and CONAB (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento), the Brazilian Government agency that deals with agriculture (with a particular focus on coffee) and which also provides some insight into the entire South America.
Forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated models.

Technical levels
Comments on technical levels are based on market news and data available via information providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv-Datastream. Interest rate technical level forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated technical models. Forecasts are obtained using analyses of historical-statistical data series made available by the leading data providers and also on the basis of consensus data, taking account of appropriate connections between them. There is also a further in-depth study linked to the choice of appropriate derivatives that best represent the sector or the specific commodities on which one intends to invest.

Recommendations
Negative Outlook: a Negative Outlook recommendation for a sector is a wide-ranging indication. It not only indicates deteriorating price conditions of the indices or futures that best represent the commodity in question (thus the reduction of a price performance), but it also implies the deterioration in the forecasts on production, weather and input supplies (like water or energy) that characterize these sectors more than other financial instruments.
Neutral Outlook: a Neutral Outlook recommendation for a sector is an indication that includes a multitude of aspects. It indicates that the combination of price forecasts of indices and futures and all the conditions of production, weather and input supplies (like water or energy) will lead to a sideways movement in prices or inventories or production capacity, recording, therefore, void or minimum performances for the sector under examination.
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Frequency and validity of forecasts

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a speech by Carlo Buckhardt

Abstract

In order to overcome existing restraints in the in-service behaviour of currently available additive manufacturing (AM) materials’ sets, an advanced production method for high performance technology metals was developed on the basis of a modified vat polymerisation-based (VP) printing for metal powders. The new lithography-based metal manufacturing (LMM) process is able to photoharden highly filled innovative metal-photopolymeric binder.
After debinding and sintering, the fully dense metal AM parts will provide various advantages such as superior properties with respect to cracks or internal stress when compared to laser-based powder bed fusion (L-PBF) AM parts. LMM is suitable to build very detailed, complex structures with a minimum of after-treatments without need for support structures, exhibiting superior surface quality, having less demanding requests with respect to powder particle size/morphology and allowing effective re-use of the feedstock materials.
In the paper, the LMM process will be explained in detail, its suitability for the production of jewellery and watch pieces will be demonstrated for stainless steel type materials and titanium alloys on various samples, an outlook for precious metal powders will be given

Pforzheim University

• founded 1899
• one of the biggest Universities for Applied Sciences in Germany (~6.000 students)
• threefaculties:
  Business, Economics & Law
  Engineering
  Design
• 29 Bachelor-and 17 Master-Courses
• one of 7 fully certified universities in Germany

Institute for Precious and Technology Metals

Partner oftheregional precision engineering industry

• contract research, serial inspections, damage analyses, expert opinions, production optimisations, etc.
• fully equipped materials lab; incl. 2 SEM, FIB, EDX/XRD, Laserscan, DTA, mechanical testing, corrosionetc. (DAkkSakkredited)
  National and international research partner
• recycling of rare earth metals/permanent magnets
• additive manufacturing of metals
  Head: Prof. Dr.Carlo Burkhardt
• 4 national projects, 3 international multilateral (EU) projects (>30 M€ overall budget)

LMM Additive Manufacturing

Lithography-based Metal Manufacturing

• basedon theVat-PolymerizationPrinciple
• verygoodsurfacecharacteristics
• verygoodgeometricalprecision
• nothermal distortions
• materials: stainlesssteel, toolsteel, titanium, […]
• suitable also for non-weldable materials
• printing speed: max. 16 cm³/h
• suitable for:
• smalland very small parts(<30g)
• smalltomoderate quantities

LMM-Process

How it works

LMM-Process

Sintering

LMM-Process

Shrinkage

LMM-Process

Precision

• finished part tolerances up to ±0.5% of nominal dimension possible
• stair-step effect due to layer-by-layer production

LMM-Process

Surfaces

LMM-Process

Some parts

MetShape GmbH

• Start-up and spin-off of Pforzheim University as of 01.04.2019
• funded by the program “Young Innovators” of the Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts Baden-Württemberg
• specialized in additive component manufacturing using the Lithography-based Metal Manufacturing process (LMM) and related development services
• main focus:
  • conducting feasibility studies for components and materials
  • small scale productions
  • installationof process chains for in-house production

a speech by Beatriz Biagi

Jewellery trends evolve slowly. While other industrial sectors develop and adopt technological innovations quickly, the fine jewellery sector around the globe largely sticks to “same old” production and commercial procedures, feeling no urge to change. Cultural and security issues play a major role in both, keeping fine jewellery a priority for established customers and failing to address a growing number of potential customers.

Over the past 3 decades customer attitudes towards precious jewellery have not changed significantly for a large majority of rooted customers, for whom jewellery purchasing follows the cultural affinity matured over centuries and is essentially linked to special occasions, investment and heritage. This will most probably remain unvaried in the future, as long as the precious materials used are considered highly valuable. And as long as this customer segment remains big enough to justify keeping business practices unvaried. However, there are enough trend indicators showing that expectations are different for a growing number of clients and that what jewellery and luxury products represent will change over the next decades.

During the last 15 years it has become evident that the two major factors inducing a shift in our lives are Technology and Sustainability. We have observed new areas of opportunity being addressed often by newcomers and start-ups also in the fine jewellery scenario.  Precious wearable technologies, medical and communication devices, digital marketplaces and on-demand productions have steadily grown, bringing innovation into the international jewellery scenario.

As predicted in 2006, Sustainability has permeated across all products and is becoming a mainstream trend, as environmental and ethical awareness persistently grows. Although ethical correctness rises operation costs, there is ground to believe that customers will be willing to pay a premium for transparency and sustainability in jewellery or rather spend their disposable income in products and services of brands that adopt and can guarantee best practices. Putting sustainability as a priority by clients is a still quite irrelevant purchasing attitude in the jewellery business, but will gain importance in the years to come.

It is clear that in a luxury business based on gems and metals, environmental sustainability and ethical issues are not necessarily embedded in the system. Nevertheless, many companies are embracing the urge to protect the sources of the materials used, specially when talking about gems produced by living organisms, and to protect all persons involved in the process of extracting materials and transforming them at all stages, up to the production of fine jewellery or other luxury products.

For sure the jewellery sector is starting to adapt to today’s reality. In the past years we have seen a rise in online purchasing, as well as digital communication and client engagement.

We are seeing more significant efforts of businesses and brands to implement ethically correct procedures throughout the trade, aligning to voluntary standards and certifications.

On the other hand, experiential purchasing is gaining importance among young generations against purchases driven by investment or by attachment to traditions. These changes of attitudes and expectations towards fine jewellery in young generations will affect our sector differently, depending on the cultural environment of customers and their degree of affinity and attachment towards precious jewellery.

Today more than ever products and brands are successful if their stories are opportunely conveyed. In the past fine jewellery didn’t need to be supported by any communication or promotional activities. It literally sold just because it existed, as a large part of the population was culturally attached to what fine jewellery and precious metals meant. This is still the case for a large number of customers, especially in rural areas in Asia and among mature generations.

But as customers adopt a more metropolitan and global lifestyle, they lose the emotional connection towards fine jewellery. As customers become younger and more digitalised, they tend not to follow customs and habits dictated by traditional rituals as their parents and grandparents did. They start investing their time and resources in emotional products and experiences that satisfy their personal and needs and individual desires.

We are not talking about an ephemeral style trend. Any jewellery company that wants to be successful in the next decades needs to approach innovation by implementing a coordinated project that addresses design, product development and marketing. It is time to fully understand that it is not by using ideas of internship design students or by launching an Instagram influencer campaign, that we will build competitivity in the mid-term.

The development of successful proposals requires in the first place a correct problem setting and I would like to focus on that today. There are some fundamental questions to be answered regarding why somebody would want to buy our products and how. We have to understand the decision process involved in any successful product purchase and define the spectrum of possible paths to ideally pursue the best match between what we can offer and what our clients require.

Who decides for the style of the jewellery piece and who for the budget to be spent or invested? Very often these decisions are made by two (or more) persons independently, who nevertheless have to be sure they make the right choice even not directly confronting themselves with what the other person decides, but relying on the jeweller’s recommendations.

For which occasion will my product be purchased? A different story will be told if the jewellery piece is proposed for an anniversary, an engagement or a wedding, for a religious festival or festivity, for Valentine’s day or Mother’s day, as a treat or just for fun.

Who will purchase the product, where and how? A complete different set of values and buying attitudes need to be taken in consideration if the proposed jewellery will be self-purchased or bought as a gift, and if it will be bought by a woman or a man. This is the case also while analysing the purchasing process when bridal jewellery is at stake. For example, we can observe a complete different scenario selling a wedding set in India, rather than an engagement ring in the US. Furthermore, we need to understand the attitudes and expectations of those who will wear the jewellery pieces, their lifestyles, concerns and interests. And last but not least, we need to learn to communicate and engage with our clients addressing barriers we are already facing now, such as misinformation, false and counterfeited products or lack of trust.

But most importantly, we need to understand and attract our potential clients. Potential clients are by definition non-existing clients and actually we need to get to know them as accurate as possible, even before we start communicating with them. This segment represents the most difficult target, needing more resources invested for often uncertain returns. Our potential clients nowadays are represented mainly by young millennials and the youngest incoming gen-Z customers in metropolitan areas. Many consumer surveys show these young potential customers have different purchasing behaviours as precedent generations, due to the fact that they rely on digital technologies for every aspect of their lives.

This means for example, they will seek information and feedback from other customers on the net, rather than going to physical stores or ask advise form their families or close friends. Relying on digital technologies also means they demand immediate and personalised proposals, easy purchasing and hassle-free returns and product changes. They need to feel good about their choices, even if decisions might seem casual or thoughtless. It means they no longer keep long-term fidelity towards brands and can spontaneously change their minds. 

Digital technologies are in fact provoking a process of dematerialisation in every aspect of our lives. The meaning of wealth and luxury will inevitably continue to evolve, provoking a shift in the value perception of precious materials. Sustainability and ethical issues are being placed by the general public into the top of the value scale, which leads to questioning the need of using precious metals and natural gems in the first place. The idea of luxury itself is changing, in a world in which basic elements such as clean water, time and peace are to become the most-sought treasures. It becomes clear that in a longer term, the value perception of precious jewellery will no longer be as we know it today and that we need to start taking action to be able to satisfy our future clients.

Each company needs to understand which functions and services will be sought for by their potential client segment, which materials and products and will be accepted and which procedures must be put in place to be coherent. It is crucial to fully understand which message needs to be conveyed  today and what kind of stories brands and products will have to tell in the future, in order to change, not losing any of the existing strengths but rather strengthening the growing potential.

In any case the jewellery sector needs to seriously invest resources not only thinking which products will sell, but also which services and emotions should be accordingly offered. There are many positive attitudes linked to jewellery purchasing, that should no longer be taken for granted, but consciously processed to be built upon.

We should ask ourselves as jewellery makers and sellers which positive experiences do we evoke and can we provoke? To whom? We should understand what it means that our jewellery will represent a valuable treasure for a bride or will become a style statement for the wearer. What it takes to be seen and chosen with the help of a family jeweller or proposed by a recognised brand. How precious materials can become luxury accessories, personal communication or medical devices, religious or status symbols and how these bring security and happiness.

The role of precious jewellery is deeply embedded in human nature, and it will continue to be so, as long as it evolves into the shapes, symbols and functions clients look for. 

The positive elements that precious jewellery is capable of arousing in the pubic represent the most convincing source for competitivity and as such, need to  be wisely addressed and communicated. These represent the solid foundations that will guide us throughout the next decade to generate a compelling business personality.

una relazione di Beatriz Biagi

In gioielleria, i trend si evolvono lentamente. Mentre altri settori cavalcano l’onda delle novità tecnologiche, l’alta gioielleria nel mondo resta fedele alla “vecchia” produzione e alle consuete prassi commerciali, senza avvertire alcuna urgenza di cambiamento. Lo status quo viene mantenuto per ragioni culturali e di sicurezza, e la gioielleria importante resta appannaggio dei clienti tradizionali, mancando di attingere a un bacino crescente di potenziali acquirenti.

L’alta gioielleria è legata a occasioni speciali, investimenti ed eredità e negli ultimi 30 anni l’atteggiamento dei clienti non è cambiato, specchio di un’affinità culturale maturata nei secoli – che probabilmente continuerà a esistere finché i materiali utilizzati conserveranno la loro aura di pregio esclusivo e finché il segmento target sarà abbastanza ampio da giustificare l’immobilità delle prassi di business. Ma già si avvertono i primi segnali di cambiamento: molti clienti hanno aspettative diverse e il significato simbolico di gioielli e prodotti di lusso muterà nei prossimi decenni.

Due grandi fattori hanno plasmato le nostre vite negli ultimi 15 anni: la tecnologia e la sostenibilità. Anche nell’alta gioielleria si sono aperti nuovi spazi, che player emergenti e start-up non hanno tardato a occupare. Tecnologie indossabili, dispositivi medicali e di comunicazione, mercati digitali e produzione on-demand hanno registrato una crescita costante, portando una ventata di innovazione nel settore internazionale del gioiello.

Come previsto nel 2006, la sostenibilità è ormai un valore chiave per ogni prodotto e sta diventando un trend dominante, insieme a una crescente consapevolezza etica e ambientale. Produrre eticamente fa aumentare i costi, ma senza dubbio esistono clienti disposti a pagare un prezzo premio pur di avere trasparenza e sostenibilità nei gioielli, o comunque a investire il proprio denaro in prodotti e servizi di marchi che adottino e garantiscano l’applicazione di best practice. La sostenibilità non figura ancora tra i criteri prioritari nell’acquisto di un gioiello, ma avrà sempre più importanza negli anni a venire.

È chiaro che, in un comparto del lusso che tratta gemme e metalli, la sostenibilità ambientale e le questioni etiche non siano parametri fondamentali del sistema. Ciononostante, molti brand sono sempre più attenti alla provenienza dei materiali utilizzati, soprattutto delle gemme prodotte da organismi viventi, e alla tutela delle persone coinvolte nei processi di estrazione e lavorazione, fino alla produzione dei gioielli e di altri articoli di lusso.

Sicuramente l’alta gioielleria sta cominciando ad adattarsi alla realtà odierna. Negli ultimi anni sono aumentate le vendite online e le interazioni digitali con i clienti.

Le aziende e i marchi si impegnano ad adottare procedure eticamente corrette in ogni fase del business, allineandosi volontariamente a standard e certificazioni.

Al tempo stesso, assume nuova rilevanza tra i giovani il lato esperienziale dell’acquisto, contrapponendosi alle mere scelte d’investimento o all’aderenza alle tradizioni. Questi cambiamenti di attitudine e aspettative nei confronti della gioielleria di qualità nelle nuove generazioni avranno un impatto sul nostro settore, diverso a seconda dell’ambiente culturale dei clienti e del loro grado di affinità e attaccamento verso i preziosi.

Oggi più che mai, brand e prodotti hanno successo se sanno raccontare bene le loro storie. In passato l’alta gioielleria non aveva bisogno di strategie di comunicazione o attività promozionali. Per vendere bastava esistere, dato che tante persone erano culturalmente legate al significato intrinseco dei gioielli e dei metalli preziosi. Questo è ancora vero per molti clienti, soprattutto nelle zone rurali dell’Asia e tra le generazioni più mature.

Ma con il diffondersi di uno stile di vita globalizzato e metropolitano, la connessione emotiva con i gioielli di lusso si assottiglia sempre più. I clienti, più giovani e digitalizzati, si discostano dai riti della tradizione e non seguono più gli usi e i costumi dei genitori e dei nonni, preferendo investire tempo e risorse in prodotti ed esperienze che regalino emozioni in linea con le esigenze e i desideri personali.

Non stiamo parlando di un trend effimero. Per avere successo nei prossimi decenni, i creatori di gioielli dovranno puntare all’innovazione attuando un progetto coordinato che abbracci design, sviluppo del prodotto e marketing. Una cosa sia chiara: non è sfruttando le idee degli stagisti del reparto design né lanciando una campagna di Influencer Marketing su Instagram che si diventa competitivi nel medio termine.

Lo sviluppo di una proposta efficace parte da una corretta individuazione dei problemi e su questo vorrei concentrarmi oggi. Ci sono delle domande fondamentali a cui dobbiamo rispondere sul perché qualcuno dovrebbe voler acquistare i nostri prodotti e come. Dobbiamo capire il processo decisionale che sta dietro l’acquisto di ogni prodotto e definire lo spettro di percorsi possibili per trovare la corrispondenza ideale tra ciò che possiamo offrire e ciò di cui i nostri clienti hanno bisogno.

Chi decide lo stile di un gioiello e chi il budget da spendere o investire? Molto spesso queste decisioni vengono prese da due o più persone in modo indipendente, ma che comunque devono accertarsi di fare la scelta giusta anche senza confrontarsi direttamente con gli altri interlocutori, ma affidandosi ai consigli del gioielliere.

Per quale occasione sarà acquistato il mio prodotto? Dovremo raccontare una storia diversa a seconda che il gioiello venga proposto per un anniversario, un fidanzamento o un matrimonio, per una festività o una ricorrenza religiosa, per San Valentino o per la Festa della Mamma, come una piacevole “follia” o per il piacere di fare un regalo.

Chi acquisterà il prodotto, dove e come? Il set valoriale e le attitudini alla base dell’acquisto saranno completamente diversi se il cliente acquista il gioiello per sé o per un’altra persona, se il gioiello viene acquistato da una donna o da un uomo. Questo vale anche nell’analisi del processo d’acquisto dei gioielli nuziali. Siamo di fronte a scenari completamente diversi se pensiamo, per esempio, alla vendita di una parure di gioielli per una sposa indiana rispetto alla scelta di un anello di fidanzamento negli Stati Uniti. Non solo. Dobbiamo capire a fondo le attitudini e le aspettative della persona che indosserà i gioielli, il suo stile di vita, le sue difficoltà e i suoi interessi. E da ultimo, ma non per questo meno importante, dobbiamo imparare a comunicare con i nostri clienti e coinvolgerli abbattendo le barriere che già oggi incontriamo, come la disinformazione, i prodotti falsi e contraffatti, la sfiducia.

Ma soprattutto dobbiamo capire e attrarre i nostri potenziali clienti. I potenziali clienti sono, per definizione, clienti inesistenti e quindi dobbiamo studiarli con grande attenzione ancor prima di iniziare a comunicare con loro. Questo segmento è il target più ostico, che richiede un investimento maggiore di risorse e non promette un ritorno certo. Oggi i nostri potenziali clienti sono rappresentati essenzialmente dai giovani Millennials e dagli ancora più giovani esponenti della Generazione Z nelle aree urbane. Molte indagini di mercato indicano che questi potenziali clienti hanno comportamenti d’acquisto diversi da quelli delle generazioni precedenti, per via del fatto che usano le tecnologie digitali per ogni aspetto della propria vita.

Per esempio, cercano informazioni e leggono i pareri di altri clienti sul Web, invece di andare personalmente nei negozi o chiedere consiglio ad amici e parenti. Affidarsi completamente alle tecnologie digitali significa anche che si aspettano un’offerta immediata e personalizzata, acquisti semplici e la possibilità di rendere e sostituire i prodotti senza fatica. Devono sentire di aver fatto la scelta giusta, per quanto spensierata o disinvolta possa sembrare questa scelta. Questo target non è fedele ai brand a lungo termine e spesso e volentieri cambia idea.

Le tecnologie digitali hanno innescato un processo di smaterializzazione in ogni aspetto della nostra vita. Il significato di ricchezza e lusso continuerà inevitabilmente a evolversi, cambiando la percezione del valore dei materiali preziosi. Etica e sostenibilità sono in cima alla scala dei valori del grande pubblico e questo porta a interrogarsi sulla reale necessità di utilizzare gemme naturali e metalli preziosi. L’idea stessa di lusso sta cambiando, in un mondo in cui elementi fondamentali come l’acqua pulita, il tempo e la pace diventano i tesori più ricercati. È chiaro che, nel lungo periodo, la percezione del valore dell’alta gioielleria sarà diversa da quella che conosciamo oggi, e che dobbiamo metterci subito al lavoro per soddisfare le esigenze dei nostri futuri clienti.

Ogni azienda deve capire quali saranno le funzioni e i servizi più richiesti dal proprio target di riferimento; quali materiali e prodotti saranno accettati e quali procedure devono essere messe in atto per dimostrare coerenza. È cruciale capire quale messaggio dev’essere comunicato oggi e che tipo di storie i brand e i prodotti dovranno raccontare in futuro – per cambiare senza perdere i nostri attuali punti di forza, ma piuttosto aumentando il potenziale di crescita.

In ogni caso il settore del gioiello deve investire grandi risorse non solo pensando a quali prodotti venderà, ma anche a quali servizi ed emozioni offrire a corollario. All’acquisto di un gioiello sono legate molte sensazioni positive, che non devono più essere date per scontate, ma elaborate coscientemente e usate come leve di successo.

Come produttori e venditori di gioielli, dobbiamo chiederci: quali esperienze positive possiamo evocare o creare? Per chi? Dobbiamo capire cosa vuol dire quando diciamo che i nostri gioielli rappresenteranno un bene prezioso per una sposa o una dichiarazione di stile per chi li indossa. Cosa serve per essere notati e scelti con l’aiuto di un gioielliere di famiglia, o proposti da un brand riconosciuto. Come i metalli preziosi possono diventare accessori di lusso, dispositivi di comunicazione personale o apparecchiature medicali, emblemi religiosi o status symbol; e in che modo infondono sicurezza e felicità.

Il ruolo dell’alta gioielleria è intimamente connesso con la natura umana, e continuerà a esserlo finché saprà vestire le forme, i simboli e le funzioni che i clienti ricercano.

Gli elementi positivi che l’alta gioielleria sa suscitare nel pubblico sono una carta vincente in termini di competitività, e per questo devono essere gestiti e comunicati con sapienza. Rappresentano le solide fondamenta che ci guideranno nel prossimo decennio, aiutandoci a costruire una straordinaria personalità imprenditoriale.

a speech by Stefania Trenti

The Italian jewellery sector in 2019

Positive turnover and production also in 2019

• According to ISTAT data, production in the jewellery and bijoux sector recorded yet another considerable increase in the first 10 months of 2019: +19.5%, for the third year running. 
• Turnover also increased considerably: +11.4% between January and October 2019. Turnover increased for the tenth year running.

Price of gold is increasing…

As of the month of May, considerable global economic uncertainty led to a significant increase in the price of gold which quickly exceeded 1,500 dollars an ounce between August and September. It then continued to stand at higher levels than the mean value in 2018.
On average in 2019, the price of gold increased by 15.9% in Euros and 9.7% in dollars. 

…with negative effects on global demand

Global demand for gold jewellery reacted rapidly to the new price scenario, recording a significant drop in the third quarter (-15.6%), particularly in two main markets (China and India) and in the Middle East.

Source: Intesa Sanpaolo on World Gold Council data – Gold Demand Trends

Excellent performances for Italian exports…

In the first nine months of 2019, gold jewellery exports grew by 12.1% in quantity and by 8.8% in value in Euros.

…with widespread positive results on (almost) all markets…

…and districts

Provincial export figures are only available on a more aggregate level (including costume jewellery) and only in value (not in quantity).
All the districts registered positive development, with the best results in Arezzo. 

The success of luxury towed by Switzerland, France and Italy

Excellent results in the USA

The prospects for the next few months

Global trade picking up but trends showing modest growth

Forecasts for 2021

• Slight recovery in the first six months of 2020 but annual figure lower than 2019 due to a disadvantageous towing effect.
• A slight acceleration (of annual data) expected in 2021, also due to trade agreements.

From Asia, the first signs of cycle stabilization

USA cycle: controlled slowdown 

Consumers are optimistic

The employment market is the power towed by consumption: unemployment at its minimum since 1969

Family budgets are in order at last

Euro area: internal demand sustained by real incomes and tax policies

Foreign demand more favourable in 2020

Italy: still modest growth

• In 2020, we expect a slight acceleration to 0.3% (0.4% incorrect for working days) from 0.2% in 2019.
• A growth of 0.5% expected in 2021.

Budget law: resources destined for VAT blockage

The latest modifications have seen an easing and deferral of the plastic tax until July, a postponement of the sugar tax until October and a substantial zeroing of the squeeze on company cars. The manoeuvre has risen to 32 billion.

Note: effect on net debt in billions
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo processing on DPB 2020

Steady consumption thanks to good ready income dynamics

Growth can begin again in the medium term

Note: cumulated effects on the GDP of a 100 base-point drop in returns on Government bonds in the medium to long term (more or less in line with that registered in the last 6 months) (% deviation from the baseline) and on PA expenditure due to interests (in % of GDP).

Source: Banca d’Italia, MEF, Intesa Sanpaolo processing

Precious material prices  

Geopolitical uncertainty should continue in 2020 to support the price of gold which, in our expectations, should continue on a consolidation course, remaining within the mean in 2020 at around 1,500$/troy ounce, with a potential risk of increase deriving from ample liquidity on the markets and expansive monetary policies in all areas.

Euro in slight improvement against the USD within a 12-month horizon

Important Information

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