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Lo scenario globale dell’industria orafa durante il Covid-19

Lo scenario globale dell’industria orafa durante il Covid-19

una relazione di Sara Giusti

Abstract

Il settore della gioielleria è stato duramente colpito dalla pandemia di Covid19. La domanda mondiale è diminuita drasticamente nel 2020, colpita dalla chiusura dei negozi, dall’arresto dei flussi turistici, dalla diminuzione del potere d’acquisto tra i consumatori globali, dall’aumento dell’incertezza e dai prezzi dell’oro ai massimi livelli. Lo scenario per il 2021 resta molto incerto, a seconda dell’evoluzione della pandemia, con un rimbalzo della domanda che lascerà il mercato della gioielleria ancora ben al di sotto dei livelli del 2019.

Il settore orafo italiano nel 2021

La domanda mondiale di gioielli in oro ha continuato a crescere anche nel 3° trimestre 2021 (+33%) con un rallentamento atteso rispetto alla crescita nei primi due trimestri, che nel 2020 erano invece stati maggiormente colpiti dal calo legato alla crisi. Nei mesi estivi il settore orafo italiano ha confermato la buona dinamica già registrata a inizio anno e complessivamente nei primi nove mesi si è attestato già sopra i livelli pre-COVID sia in termini di fatturato (+13,1%), sia nelle esportazioni in valori (+6,9%) e quantità (+8,0%).

Materie prime: pesano la variante Omicron e le politiche monetarie

L’impatto negativo della variante Omicron e la minaccia di politiche monetarie più restrittive rappresentano ora i principali ostacoli per i mercati delle materie prime e potrebbero innescare più ampie correzioni dei prezzi nel breve termine. Tuttavia, un temporaneo indebolimento dei corsi delle materie prime favorirebbe l’economia mondiale, contribuendo ad accelerare i tassi di crescita, e semplificherebbe il compito delle principali banche centrali, che potrebbero continuare a sostenere la ripresa economica invece di combattere le pressioni inflazionistiche.

Metalli preziosi: preferiamo il palladio all’oro

Nel 2021, le quotazioni dei metalli preziosi hanno registrato una flessione. Manteniamo una view negativa su oro e argento, poiché l’adozione di politiche monetarie più restrittive dovrebbe ridurre la propensione a investire nei due metalli. Per contro, ci attendiamo un parziale recupero di platino e palladio, grazie alla probabile accelerazione della domanda dal settore automobilistico. Pertanto, nell’ambito di un’asset allocation strategica a medio termine, preferiamo il palladio all’oro.

Il settore orafo italiano nel 2021

Ha continuato anche nel 3° trimestre 2021 la ripresa della domanda mondiale di gioielli in oro (+33%), anche se in rallentamento rispetto ai primi due trimestri (+54% nel 1° trimestre e +62% nel 2° trimestre) e con un divario rispetto al periodo pre-crisi del -14%. Il settore orafo italiano ha confermato una buona dinamica che lo ha portato a superare i valori dei primi nove mesi del 2019 sia in termini di fatturato (+13,1%), sia nelle esportazioni in valori (+6,9%) e in quantità (+8,0%).

Nel 3° trimestre 2021 la domanda mondiale di gioielli in oro ha mostrato un rimbalzo significativo rispetto al 2020 (+33% in quantità), anche se in naturale rallentamento rispetto a quanto registrato nei primi due trimestri (+54% nel 1° trimestre e +62% nel 2° trimestre), che nel 2020 erano stati maggiormente segnati dalla crisi (Fig. 1); complessivamente nei primi nove mesi del 2021 la domanda mondiale ha segnato ancora un ritardo rispetto al 2019 del -14%. Grazie al forte rimbalzo dei primi tre mesi (+216%) è la Cina il mercato che ha presentato la crescita nel 2021 più marcata (+84%), seguita da India (+45%) e Medio Oriente (+43%), che sono tra i mercati con la crescita più elevata nel 3° trimestre insieme a Hong Kong (Fig. 2). Nel confronto con il periodo pre-crisi sono Cina e Stati Uniti i mercati più rilevanti che hanno già superato i livelli del 2019, rispettivamente del +4,1% e del 17,1%.

Figura 1 – Domanda mondiale di gioielli in oro (livelli in tonnellate e variazione % trimestrale)
Fonte: World Gold Council – Gold Demand Trend

Figura 2 – Domanda di gioielli in oro nei primi nove mesi 2021 (variazione % su dati in tonnellate)
Nota: (*) Al netto della Russia. I paesi sono esposti in ordine decrescente per valore della domanda nel 2021. Fonte: World Gold Council – Gold Demand Trend

Le esportazioni italiane di gioielli in oro hanno registrato, invece, nei primi nove mesi del 2021 una piena ripresa dei valori pre-COVID, sia in valori (+6,9%), sia in quantità (+8,0%), con un forte rimbalzo nel 2° trimestre (+251% in valori; +273% in quantità), confermato anche nel 3° trimestre con tassi di crescita pari a circa il 60% (Figg. 3-4).

Figura 3 – Evoluzione trimestrale delle esportazioni italiane di gioielli in oro* (var. %)
Nota: (*) Codice 711319. Fonte: elaborazioni Intesa Sanpaolo su dati Istat

Figura 4 – Andamento delle esportazioni italiane di gioielli in oro* rispetto al 2019 (var. %)
Nota: (*) Codice 711319. Fonte: elaborazioni Intesa Sanpaolo su dati Istat

Dal punto di vista dei principali mercati di sbocco, gli Stati Uniti hanno confermato il ruolo di primo mercato di riferimento delle esportazioni italiane di gioielli in oro grazie a valori pressoché raddoppiati rispetto ai primi nove mesi del 2020 (+98%) e al superamento dei dati pre-COVID sia in valori (+66,3%), sia in quantità (+44,5%). È continuato, inoltre, il significativo trend di crescita verso gli Emirati Arabi (+141,1% in valori; +151,0% in quantità), che hanno recuperato gli importi dei primi nove mesi del 2019 (+8,8%), mentre hanno segnato ancora un divario in termini di quantità (-12,8%). Un’attenzione particolare va agli scambi con l’Irlanda, effetto delle policy degli operatori stranieri già presenti nel 2020 che hanno confermato l’utilizzo del mercato irlandese come base fiscale e logistica per servire altri mercati, tra cui, con ogni probabilità, il Regno Unito (dove nel periodo gennaio-settembre si è registrato un crollo dei valori esportati dall’Italia, -35,8%). Le esportazioni verso la Svizzera, nonostante il significativo rimbalzo (+42,1% in valori, +48,9% in quantità), hanno mostrato un ritardo rispetto ai primi nove mesi del 2019 superiore al -35%, probabilmente anche in questo caso legato alle politiche distributive delle grandi maison del Lusso, per le quali la Svizzera rappresenta un polo logistico di riferimento. Particolarmente rilevante, inoltre, la crescita registrata dalle vendite verso il Sud Africa, che sono più che raddoppiate rispetto al 2020, quando erano comunque cresciute nonostante la crisi legata alla pandemia (Tab. 1).

Dal punto di vista territoriale, sono state confermate le evidenze già registrate nei primi due trimestri con un maggior dinamismo nelle province di Vicenza e Arezzo, che complessivamente hanno segnato un rimbalzo rispetto al 2020 del +70% per Vicenza e del +92% per Arezzo, mentre la crescita nel distretto di Valenza si è attestata al +27%. Queste dinamiche si sono tradotte in un pieno recupero rispetto al pre-crisi per i distretti di Vicenza e Arezzo, che hanno mostrato un incremento rispetto al 2019 del +17%, mentre per Valenza si sconta ancora un ritardo del -36%, probabilmente influenzato più che per gli altri due distretti dalle policy di prezzo delle multinazionali (il dato a livello territoriale è disponibile solo in valore e non in quantità) (Figg. 5-6).

Figura 5 – Evoluzione delle esportazioni di gioielleria e bigiotteria* (var. % con il corrispondente periodo dell’anno precedente a prezzi correnti)
Nota: (*) Codice ATECO 3.21. Fonte: elaborazioni Intesa Sanpaolo su dati Istat

Figura 6 – Evoluzione delle esportazioni di gioielleria e bigiotteria* a confronto con il periodo pre-COVID (var. % a prezzi correnti)
Nota: (*) Codice ATECO 3.21. Fonte: elaborazioni Intesa Sanpaolo su dati Istat

Nel periodo gennaio-settembre 2021 le esportazioni del distretto orafo di Vicenza sono state pari a 1,2 miliardi di euro con una crescita di oltre 480 milioni di euro rispetto al corrispondente periodo del 2020 (+69,9%) e in crescita anche rispetto al 2019 (+16,7%). Le esportazioni sono state sostenute soprattutto dai buoni risultati delle vendite verso gli Stati Uniti, che sono più che raddoppiate rispetto al 2020 (+113%) con un importante incremento anche rispetto al pre-crisi (+79,9%), oltre che da una significativa crescita verso il Sud Africa (+82,4% rispetto al 2020 e +74,6% verso il 2019); si è rafforzato inoltre il trend di crescita delle esportazioni verso la Malesia, già importante nel 2020 (+94,4%), che nei primi nove mesi del 2021 rappresenta il sesto mercato di riferimento rispetto al decimo nel 2020. Ritornano sopra i livelli del 2019 anche le esportazioni verso gli Emirati Arabi Uniti (+6,2%), mentre non recupera il divario l’export verso Hong Kong (-52,1%) (Tab. 2).

Anche il distretto di Arezzo ha recuperato il valore delle esportazioni del pre-COVID e con 1,8 miliardi di euro ha incrementato di circa 880 milioni di euro il valore rispetto ai primi nove mesi del 2020 (+92,4%) e di 270 milioni di euro il valore del 2019 (+17,3%). Trainante la crescita delle esportazioni verso gli Stati Uniti, che sono più che raddoppiate rispetto al 2020 (+129,5%) e nettamente superiori al 2019 (+87,8%), e verso il Sud Africa, che ha incrementato di oltre 80 milioni di euro il valore del 2019 ed è arrivato a rappresentare il 5,1% delle esportazioni distrettuali. Da segnalare, inoltre, il completo recupero anche delle esportazioni verso gli Emirati Arabi Uniti (+15,3%), che rappresentano il primo mercato di riferimento, oltre alla ripresa verso la Francia (+15,2%) e la Turchia (+30,9%), mentre hanno continuato a registrare un divario negativo rispetto al 2019 le esportazioni verso Hong Kong (-37,1%) (Tab. 3).

Il distretto orafo di Valenza Po invece ha mostrato ancora un divario rispetto al 2019 (-36,2%) e con un valore di oltre un miliardo di euro di esportazioni ha segnato una crescita di 222 milioni di euro rispetto al 2020 (+27,3%). Nell’analisi dei paesi di destinazione si può notare come il distretto risulti condizionato dalle scelte logistiche di alcuni importanti operatori, visibili dal forte incremento registrato dalle vendite verso l’Irlanda, che a partire dal 2020 è diventato il primo mercato di sbocco, mentre nel 2019 rappresentava poco più del 4% delle esportazioni. Penalizzate invece le esportazioni verso la Francia, in calo sia verso il 2020 (-34,7%) sia verso il 2019 (-73%), e verso la Svizzera (-23,4% verso il 2020 e -83,2% verso il 2019) (Tab. 4).

Gli indici di produzione e fatturato hanno confermato i segnali di recupero: nella media dei primi nove mesi del 2021 la produzione industriale e il fatturato del settore sono cresciuti circa del 65% rispetto al 2020, ma anche nel confronto con la media del 2019 hanno registrato un incremento del 13,1% per il fatturato e dell’8,5% nella produzione (Fig. 7). Anche le ultime evidenze del mese di ottobre confermano questa tendenza, con indici in crescita del 15% rispetto al 2019 sia per fatturato sia per produzione.

Le prospettive dell’economia mondiale sono attualmente molto incerte, condizionate dalla persistenza delle strozzature di offerta, ma le attese della crescita reale si confermano robuste anche nel 2022. Il settore italiano della gioielleria ha mostrato una buona capacità di risposta alla crisi, potendo contare su un buon presidio dei mercati internazionali, con un’attenzione crescente verso la digitalizzazione, le politiche di marchio e la sostenibilità, rafforzate dalla qualità e dalla bellezza dei gioielli Made in Italy.


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Metalli preziosi: transizione verso un mondo post-pandemia

Metalli preziosi: transizione verso un mondo post-pandemia

una relazione di Daniela Corsini

Abstract

Nel 2020, l’epidemia di Covid-19 ha interrotto le catene di approvvigionamento globali e aumentato la domanda di beni rifugio. Nel 2021, il mercato globale dell’oro dovrebbe beneficiare di un rimbalzo della domanda di gioielli e di un contesto macroeconomico favorevole tra politiche monetarie espansive, tassi di interesse bassi e un aumento delle aspettative di inflazione.

Materie prime: pesano la variante Omicron e le politiche monetarie

L’impatto negativo della variante Omicron e la minaccia di politiche monetarie più restrittive rappresentano ora i principali ostacoli per i mercati delle materie prime e potrebbero innescare più ampie correzioni dei prezzi nel breve termine. Tuttavia, un temporaneo indebolimento dei corsi delle materie prime favorirebbe l’economia mondiale, contribuendo ad accelerare i tassi di crescita, e semplificherebbe il compito delle principali banche centrali, che potrebbero continuare a sostenere la ripresa economica invece di combattere le pressioni inflazionistiche.

Le prospettive macroeconomiche si confermano più deboli di quanto inizialmente previsto, a causa delle elevate pressioni inflazionistiche e dei timori di una stretta monetaria più rapida di quanto precedentemente anticipato da parte della Federal Reserve. Inoltre, l’inattesa diffusione della variante Omicron ha provocato una revisione al ribasso delle stime di domanda mondiale di materie prime, ritardando ulteriormente la ripresa in alcuni settori, come l’aviazione, o causando un peggioramento delle prospettive per le filiere globali a causa della persistente minaccia di colli di bottiglia logistici e chiusure temporanee delle attività economiche e produttive.

A nostro avviso, in questo momento l’impatto negativo della variante Omicron e la minaccia di politiche monetarie più restrittive rappresentano i principali ostacoli per i mercati delle materie prime e potrebbero innescare più ampie correzioni dei prezzi di mercato nel breve termine.

Tuttavia, un temporaneo indebolimento dei corsi delle materie prime addurrebbe grandi benefici all’economia mondiale, contribuendo ad accelerare i tassi di crescita, e semplificherebbe il compito delle principali banche centrali, che potrebbero continuare a sostenere la ripresa economica invece di combattere le pressioni inflazionistiche alimentate dalle materie prime.

Nel nostro scenario di base, dopo una probabile, più profonda, correzione a inizio anno, i prezzi della maggior parte delle materie prime potrebbero riprendere una traiettoria di moderato rialzo. Infatti, le quotazioni di petrolio e metalli non ferrosi potrebbero recuperare parte del terreno perso non appena le banche centrali avranno rassicurato i mercati e la crescita economica globale si sarà consolidata

Nel 2022, gli specifici fondamentali di domanda e offerta dovrebbero ritornare ad essere i principali driver dei prezzi delle materie prime, prevalendo sui fattori macroeconomici, e la volatilità dovrebbe essere alimentata soprattutto da flussi di notizie riguardanti interruzioni delle forniture, ritardi nelle filiere logistiche e previsioni sulle future dinamiche di consumo, soprattutto in Cina.

Nel medio e lungo termine, continuiamo ad attenderci un trend rialzista per i metalli industriali, mentre i prezzi di gas naturale ed energia dovrebbero registrare una progressiva diminuzione, pur mantenendo le consuete oscillazioni stagionali.

Previsioni per l’universo delle materie prime

Petrolio. A seguito del recente indebolimento dei fondamentali di domanda e offerta e dei timori di una più rapida stretta monetaria, abbiamo rivisto al ribasso le nostre stime sulle quotazioni del petrolio nel 2022. A nostro avviso, una temporanea correzione potrebbe spingere il Brent verso un livello medio di 65 dollari nel 1° trimestre 2022. Successivamente, le pressioni al rialzo sul prezzo del petrolio potrebbero riprendere forza a fronte di previsioni più ottimistiche sulla domanda mondiale, grazie a un aumento stagionale dei consumi di combustibili e, si spera, di un allentamento dei timori sull’andamento dell’epidemia. Di conseguenza, ci attendiamo che si consolidi un trend rialzista del prezzo del petrolio a partire dal 2° trimestre 2022. Nel nostro scenario di base, prevediamo una quotazione media per il Brent di 67,5 dollari nel 2022 e di 70 dollari nel 2023. La volatilità dovrebbe rimanere una importante caratteristica di mercato e contribuirà spesso ad amplificare movimenti intraday.

Mercati energetici. Anche se difficilmente potranno ripetersi ogni anno le condizioni estreme che hanno caratterizzato i mercati mondiali di gas ed energia alle porte della stagione invernale 2021/22, possiamo comunque attenderci più frequenti periodi di stress di mercato e una maggiore volatilità dei prezzi dell’energia, dovuti alla necessaria e inevitabile transizione verso fonti energetiche più pulite e alla progressiva penetrazione delle energie rinnovabili.

Metalli preziosi. Nel 2021, le quotazioni di tutti i principali metalli preziosi hanno registrato una flessione. Manteniamo una view negativa su oro e argento, poiché riteniamo che l’adozione di politiche monetarie più restrittive continuerà a ridurre la propensione a investire nei due metalli. Per contro, ci attendiamo un parziale recupero delle recenti perdite subite da platino e palladio, grazie alla probabile accelerazione della domanda proveniente dal settore automobilistico, dovuta all’allentamento della crisi dei semiconduttori.

Metalli industriali. L’inattesa diffusione della variante Omicron e le aspettative di una più rapida stretta da parte della Federal Reserve hanno determinato un aumento del rischio di una più marcata correzione dei prezzi di gran parte dei metalli industriali. Ora, prevediamo infatti una diminuzione delle quotazioni nel 1° trimestre 2022. Tuttavia, più avanti nel corso del 2022, gli specifici fondamentali di domanda e offerta dovrebbero tornare ad essere i principali driver e quindi le quotazioni dei metalli non ferrosi dovrebbero recuperare terreno. Nel medio/lungo termine, continuiamo ad attenderci un trend rialzista per i metalli industriali.

Merci agricole. L’agricoltura è il settore delle materie prime che esibisce la più marcata elasticità dell’offerta ai prezzi. Di conseguenza, le elevate quotazioni registrate nel 2021 dovrebbero contribuire ad aumentare l’offerta nel 2022, laddove possibile, e potrebbero determinare diffuse diminuzioni dei prezzi in anticipazione della prossima stagione dei raccolti. Tuttavia, anomale condizioni meteorologiche restano la minaccia più preoccupante e potrebbero alimentare volatilità, a causa degli impatti più gravi e meno prevedibili del cambiamento climatico e del riscaldamento globale sul settore.

Metalli preziosi: preferiamo il palladio all’oro

Nel 2021, le quotazioni dei metalli preziosi hanno registrato una flessione. Manteniamo una view negativa su oro e argento, poiché l’adozione di politiche monetarie più restrittive dovrebbe ridurre la propensione a investire nei due metalli. Per contro, ci attendiamo un parziale recupero di platino e palladio, grazie alla probabile accelerazione della domanda dal settore automobilistico. Pertanto, nell’ambito di un’asset allocation strategica a medio termine, preferiamo il palladio all’oro.

Nel 2021, le quotazioni di tutti i principali metalli preziosi hanno registrato una flessione. Oro e argento hanno subito pressioni al ribasso dovute al rafforzamento del dollaro americano e agli annunci di un’anticipazione della stretta monetaria da parte delle principali banche centrali. In effetti, le aspettative di un rialzo dei tassi scoraggiano gli investimenti in oro e altri asset infruttiferi, poiché ne determinano un aumento del costo opportunità. Manteniamo una view negativa su entrambi i metalli, poiché riteniamo che l’ostacolo rappresentato dall’attesa stretta monetaria continuerà a ridurre la propensione a investire in oro sui mercati finanziari. Attualmente, riteniamo che l’argento non sia abbastanza forte per potersi decorrelare dall’oro, nonostante i promettenti fondamentali a lungo termine.

Nel 2° semestre, anche le quotazioni di platino e palladio hanno subito una diminuzione, poiché la scarsità di semiconduttori ha avuto un impatto negativo più grave del previsto sulla produzione di autoveicoli e, di conseguenza, sul consumo di entrambi i metalli. Probabilmente i prezzi hanno toccato i minimi e attualmente ci attendiamo un parziale recupero delle recenti perdite subite, complice la probabile accelerazione della domanda dal settore automobilistico dovuta al graduale allentamento della crisi dei semiconduttori.

Nel nostro scenario di base, prevediamo un consolidamento della crescita globale e un graduale allentamento dei colli di bottiglia e della crisi dei semiconduttori. Le politiche monetarie dovrebbero subire una stretta, pur continuando a sostenere la ripresa dell’economia mondiale sinché necessario. Pertanto, nell’ambito di un’asset allocation strategica a medio termine, preferiamo il palladio all’oro.

Oro

Secondo gli ultimi dati pubblicati dal World Gold Council (WGC), nel 3° trimestre 2021 i mercati finanziari hanno ulteriormente perso appetito per l’oro a causa dell’attesa di adozione di politiche monetarie più restrittive e del dibattito riguardo l’avvio del tapering da parte della Fed.

Considerando i volumi di oro detenuti da ETF come proxy dell’appetito dei mercati finanziari per il metallo giallo, a fine settembre le posizioni totali detenuti da ETF erano vicine alle 3.600 tonnellate, poiché il comparto aveva registrato disinvestimenti pari a circa 156 tonnellate da inizio anno, la diminuzione più forte dal 2013. Nel solo 3° trimestre 2021, le posizioni in oro detenute da ETF sono diminuite di circa 27 tonnellate. Di conseguenza, nel trimestre questi fondi hanno fornito un contributo negativo alla domanda di oro, rappresentando una perdita netta pari al 2% circa della domanda globale. Si tratta di un cambiamento significativo del sentiment di mercato, considerando che i flussi degli ETF avevano fornito un contributo positivo pari al 4% circa del consumo globale nel 2° trimestre 2021 e avevano rappresentato ben il 40% della domanda mondiale nel 2° trimestre 2020, una percentuale senza precedenti.

Considerando la rilevanza dei flussi in oro da ETF, nel 3° trimestre 2021 la domanda mondiale di metallo prezioso ha subito una contrazione del 7% a/a, nonostante tutte le componenti non finanziarie siano aumentate. Infatti, la ripresa della crescita economica mondiale ha spinto al rialzo il consumo di oro nei settori gioielleria (+33% a/a) e tecnologia (+7% a/a), mentre i maggiori tassi di risparmio, i timori sui rischi di inflazione e l’incertezza sull’andamento dell’epidemia di coronavirus hanno alimentato la domanda di lingotti e monete (+18% a/a). Nel settore ufficiale, la domanda è stata sostenuta dal rinnovato interesse per la diversificazione delle riserve ufficiali. Infatti, le banche centrali sono passate dall’essere venditrici nette di oro nel 3° trimestre 2020 ad acquirenti nette di metallo nel 3° trimestre 2021.

Considerando le attese di politiche monetarie più restrittive e di una crescita globale ancora solida, nei prossimi trimestri le componenti non finanziarie della domanda di oro potrebbero rafforzare la loro ripresa, e prevediamo un incremento degli acquisti in gioielleria, tecnologia e nel settore ufficiale. Per contro, gli ETF aventi oro fisico come sottostante potrebbero essere penalizzati da maggiori disinvestimenti dovuti all’aumento del costo opportunità legato al possesso del metallo giallo, a fronte di aspettative di un rialzo dei rendimenti e dei rischi di rialzo dei tassi di interesse di riferimento.

Nel nostro modello di base, prevediamo una quotazione media per l’oro di circa 1.770 dollari nel 1° trimestre 2022 e una possibile diminuzione intorno a una media di 1.720 dollari nel 2022. Nonostante lo scenario monetario sfavorevole, ci attendiamo solo moderate pressioni al ribasso sulle quotazioni dell’oro, grazie al forte sostegno fornito dalla ripresa in atto nel settore della gioielleria, favorita dalla crescita economica, e dal settore ufficiale, poiché le banche centrali potrebbero sfruttare il calo delle quotazioni per diversificare le proprie riserve. Inoltre, i timori relativi all’inflazione potrebbero frenare i disinvestimenti dagli ETF.

A causa della forte incertezza che grava sullo scenario macroeconomico per l’impossibilità di prevedere l’andamento dei rischi epidemiologici, i prezzi record dell’energia e i persistenti colli di bottiglia che penalizzano le filiere logistiche e le attività manifatturiere, le nostre previsioni rimangono esposte a rischi significativi.

Per l’oro, lo scenario più pessimistico sarebbe quello di un contesto macroeconomico caratterizzato da un’ulteriore accelerazione della crescita mondiale favorita da un’attenuazione dei timori epidemiologici, dall’allentamento dei colli di bottiglia e da un forte impegno delle banche centrali a intervenire per impedire il surriscaldamento dell’economia. Infatti, in questo scenario gli investitori accorderebbero la loro preferenza agli asset ciclici piuttosto che ai beni rifugio e l’aumento dei tassi di interesse scoraggerebbe gli investimenti in oro. In questo scenario, le quotazioni del metallo potrebbero scendere rapidamente in prossimità di un supporto di 1.450 dollari.

Per contro, lo scenario più ottimistico per l’oro sarebbe quello di un contesto macroeconomico caratterizzato dal peggioramento delle prospettive di crescita globale, complici una diffusione incontrollata dell’epidemia e vaccini poco efficaci. Le banche centrali sarebbero quindi costrette a rinviare la stretta monetaria pianificata nel tentativo di sostenere le rispettive economie, mentre i colli di bottiglia delle filiere logistiche e produttive permarrebbero, alimentando le pressioni inflazionistiche. In questo scenario estremo di stagflazione, l’oro potrebbe ritestare i suoi massimi al di sopra dei 2.000 dollari.

Argento

Nel nostro modello di base, prevediamo un prezzo medio per l’argento di circa 24 dollari l’oncia sia per il 1° trimestre 2022 che per l’intero anno. Ci attendiamo che il metallo scambi per la maggior parte del tempo all’interno di un intervallo compreso tra 21 e 27 dollari l’oncia.

Rispetto all’oro, l’argento dovrebbe mantenersi più volatile, ma probabilmente non sarà abbastanza forte per potersi decorrelare dal metallo giallo. Di conseguenza, nei prossimi anni l’argento appare destinato a seguire il trend ribassista dell’oro, nonostante i fondamentali positivi e le previsioni di aumento della domanda globale, soprattutto nel settore delle tecnologie verdi.

Per i prossimi anni, ci attendiamo un rapporto tra oro e argento ancora leggermente superiore alla media di lungo periodo, data la ancora forte correlazione positiva di lungo termine tra i due metalli, nonostante il supporto fornito all’argento dalla transizione verde.

Platino e palladio

Le nostre previsioni sui metalli del gruppo del platino (PGM) sono strettamente connesse alle aspettative di una ripresa nel settore automobilistico e, di conseguenza, agli sviluppi della crisi dei semiconduttori. Infatti, secondo le stime di Johnson Matthey, l’85% circa della domanda di palladio proviene dalle marmitte catalitiche utilizzate per lo più nei veicoli dotati di motori a benzina, mentre oltre il 30% della domanda di platino proviene dalle marmitte catalitiche utilizzate per lo più nei veicoli dotati di motori diesel.

Nel 2021, i PGM hanno registrato un ciclo di espansione e crisi. In effetti, nel primo semestre platino e palladio hanno sovraperformato gli altri metalli preziosi, poiché i produttori di autoveicoli hanno rapidamente incrementato gli acquisti per rifornire i magazzini e soddisfare i nuovi ordinativi, nonostante i primi segnali di rallentamenti lungo le filiere produttive dovuti alla carenza di semiconduttori.

Successivamente, con il passare del tempo e il consolidamento della ripresa mondiale, la scarsità di semiconduttori si è aggravata, costringendo i produttori di autoveicoli a rivedere al ribasso i piani di produzione e, in alcuni casi, a bloccare alcuni stabilimenti produttivi. Di conseguenza, la domanda di PGM si è drasticamente ridotta. Diversi produttori hanno rivisto al ribasso le proprie previsioni di output, alimentando il pessimismo sui mercati finanziari e dubbi sulla futura crescita di consumi di platino e palladio nel settore.

Attualmente, i produttori di autoveicoli sono probabilmente ben forniti per soddisfare le loro esigenze di PGM a medio termine. Di conseguenza, finora i bassi prezzi non hanno attirato i consumatori, a causa delle stime ancora incerte sulla produzione futura. Più a lungo termine, nonostante ci sia ancora spazio per un aumento dei prezzi, probabilmente il potenziale di rialzo dei PGM è stato strutturalmente ridotto dalla crisi dei semiconduttori, poiché gli attuali ritardi nelle dinamiche di consumo dei PGM implicano che l’offerta beneficerà di più tempo per poter soddisfare la domanda e che l’offerta secondaria beneficerà di più tempo per tornare a fluire sul mercato, grazie a una ripresa delle attività di riciclo.

Nel nostro scenario di base, per il 1° trimestre 2022 ipotizziamo un prezzo medio per il platino e il palladio rispettivamente di 1.025 dollari l’oncia e di 2.000 dollari l’oncia. Secondo le nostre previsioni, nel 2022 le quotazioni potrebbero raggiungere un livello medio vicino a 1.075 dollari per il platino e 2.050 dollari per il palladio.

A nostro avviso, il palladio potrebbe aver toccato i minimi, poiché la soglia di 1.700 dollari dovrebbe rappresentare un forte supporto per il metallo. Per contro, il minimo di 950 dollari raggiunto a novembre è un debole supporto per il platino e riteniamo che il livello di 900 dollari costituisca un più solido livello minimo.

Manteniamo una view rialzista a lungo termine (nonostante la revisione al ribasso delle previsioni rispetto al mese di giugno dovuta ai disagi più gravi e prolungati del previsto lungo la filiera), poiché ci attendiamo un possibile miglioramento della crisi dei semiconduttori nel 2022, grazie ai piani per ampliare la produzione di microchip a livello mondiale, e quindi prevediamo una ripresa sia della produzione di autoveicoli che della domanda globale di PGM.

Appendice

Certificazione degli analisti

Gli analisti finanziari che hanno predisposto la presente ricerca, i cui nomi e ruoli sono riportati nella prima pagina del documento dichiarano che:
(1) Le opinioni espresse sulle società citate nel documento riflettono accuratamente l’opinione personale, indipendente, equa ed equilibrata degli analisti;
(2) Non è stato e non verrà ricevuto alcun compenso diretto o indiretto in cambio delle opinioni espresse.

Comunicazioni specifiche

Gli analisti citati non ricevono, stipendi o qualsiasi altra forma di compensazione basata su specifiche operazioni di investment banking.

Comunicazioni importanti

Il presente documento è stato preparato da Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. e distribuito da Intesa Sanpaolo SpA-London Branch (membro del London Stock Exchange) e da Intesa Sanpaolo IMI Securities Corp (membro del NYSE e del FINRA). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. si assume la piena responsabilità dei contenuti del documento. Inoltre, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. si riserva il diritto di distribuire il presente documento ai propri clienti. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. è una banca autorizzata dalla Banca d’Italia ed è regolata dall’FCA per lo svolgimento dell’attività di investimento nel Regno Unito e dalla SEC per lo svolgimento dell’attività di investimento negli Stati Uniti.

Comunicazioni importanti

Il presente documento è stato preparato da Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. e distribuito da Intesa Sanpaolo SpA-London Branch (membro del London Stock Exchange) e da Intesa Sanpaolo IMI Securities Corp (membro del NYSE e del FINRA). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. si assume la piena responsabilità dei contenuti del documento. Inoltre, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. si riserva il diritto di distribuire il presente documento ai propri clienti. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. è una banca autorizzata dalla Banca d’Italia ed è regolata dall’FCA per lo svolgimento dell’attività di investimento nel Regno Unito e dalla SEC per lo svolgimento dell’attività di investimento negli Stati Uniti.

Le opinioni e stime contenute nel presente documento sono formulate con esclusivo riferimento alla data di redazione del documento e potranno essere oggetto di qualsiasi modifica senza alcun obbligo di comunicare tali modifiche a coloro ai quali tale documento sia stato in precedenza distribuito. Le informazioni e le opinioni si basano su fonti ritenute affidabili, tuttavia nessuna dichiarazione o garanzia è fornita relativamente all’accuratezza o correttezza delle stesse.

Le performance passate non costituiscono garanzia di risultati futuri.

Lo scopo del presente documento è esclusivamente informativo. In particolare, il presente documento non è, né intende costituire, né potrà essere interpretato, come un documento d’offerta di vendita o sottoscrizione di alcun tipo di strumento finanziario. Inoltre, non deve sostituire il giudizio proprio di chi lo riceve.

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. non assume alcun tipo di responsabilità derivante da danni diretti, conseguenti o indiretti determinati dall’utilizzo del materiale contenuto nel presente documento.

Il presente documento potrà essere riprodotto o pubblicato esclusivamente con il nome di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A..

Il presente documento è stato preparato e pubblicato esclusivamente per, ed è destinato all’uso esclusivamente da parte di, Società che abbiano un’adeguata conoscenza dei mercati finanziari, che nell’ambito della loro attività siano esposte alla volatilità dei tassi di interesse, dei cambi e dei prezzi delle materie prime e che siano finanziariamente in grado di valutare autonomamente i rischi.

Tale documento, pertanto, potrebbe non essere adatto a tutti gli investitori e i destinatari sono invitati a chiedere il parere del proprio gestore/consulente per qualsiasi necessità di chiarimento circa il contenuto dello stesso.

Per i soggetti residenti nel Regno Unito: il presente documento non potrà essere distribuito, consegnato o trasmesso nel Regno Unito a nessuno dei soggetti rientranti nella definizione di “private customers” così come definiti dalla disciplina dell’FCA.

Per i soggetti di diritto statunitense: il presente documento può essere distribuito negli Stati Uniti solo ai soggetti definiti ‘Major U.S. Institutional Investors’ come definito dalla SEC Rule 15a-6. Per effettuare operazioni mobiliari relative a qualsiasi titolo menzionato nel presente documento è necessario contattare Intesa Sanpaolo IMI Securities Corp. negli Stati Uniti (vedi sotto il dettaglio dei contatti).

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. pubblica e distribuisce ricerca ai soggetti definiti ‘Major U.S. Institutional Investors’ negli Stati Uniti solo attraverso Intesa Sanpaolo IMI Securities Corp., 1 William Street, New York, NY 10004, U.S.A, Tel: (1) 212 326 1199.

Incentivi relativi alla ricerca

Ai sensi di quanto previsto dalla Direttiva Delegata 593/17 UE, il presente documento è classificabile quale incentivo non monetario di minore entità in quanto:
– contiene analisi macroeconomiche (c.d. Macroeconomic Research) o è relativo a Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (c.d. FICC Research) ed è reso liberamente disponibile al pubblico indistinto tramite il sito web della Banca – Q&A on Investor Protection topics – ESMA 35-43-349, Question 8 e 9.

Metodologia di distribuzione

Il presente documento è per esclusivo uso del soggetto che lo riceve da Intesa Sanpaolo e non potrà essere riprodotto, ridistribuito, direttamente o indirettamente, a terzi o pubblicato, in tutto o in parte, per qualsiasi motivo, senza il preventivo consenso espresso da parte di Intesa Sanpaolo.

Il copyright ed ogni diritto di proprietà intellettuale sui dati, informazioni, opinioni e valutazioni di cui alla presente scheda informativa è di esclusiva pertinenza del Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo, salvo diversamente indicato. Tali dati, informazioni, opinioni e valutazioni non possono essere oggetto di ulteriore distribuzione ovvero riproduzione, in qualsiasi forma e secondo qualsiasi tecnica ed anche parzialmente, se non con espresso consenso per iscritto da parte di Intesa Sanpaolo.

Chi riceve il presente documento è obbligato a uniformarsi alle indicazioni sopra riportate.

Metodologia di valutazione

Il presente documento è stato preparato sulla base della seguente metodologia.

Dati Macroeconomici
I commenti sui dati macroeconomici vengono elaborati sulla base di notizie e dati macroeconomici e di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream. Le previsioni macroeconomiche e sui tassi d’interesse sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo, tramite modelli econometrici dedicati. Le previsioni sono ottenute mediante l’analisi delle serie storico-statistiche rese disponibili dai maggiori data provider ed elaborate sulla base anche dei dati di consenso tenendo conto delle opportune correlazioni fra le stesse.

Previsioni Comparto Energetico
I commenti sul comparto energetico vengono elaborati sulla base di notizie e dati macroeconomici e di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream. Le stime di consenso, se non diversamente specificato, provengono dalle principali Agenzie internazionali sull’energia, su tutte l’IEA (International Energy Agency – che si occupa del settore a livello mondiale), l’EIA (Energy Information Administration – istituto che si occupa specificatamente del settore energetico USA) e l’OPEC. Le previsioni sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo tramite modelli dedicati.

Previsioni Comparto Metalli
I commenti sul comparto metalli vengono elaborati sulla base di notizie e dati macroeconomici e di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream.
Le stime di consenso sui metalli preziosi, se non diversamente specificato, provengono principalmente dalla GFMS, la storica agenzia di previsioni basata a Londra. Le previsioni riguardano: oro, argento, platino e palladio. Le previsioni sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo tramite modelli dedicati.
Le stime di consenso sui metalli industriali, se non diversamente specificato, provengono principalmente dalla Brook Hunt, agenzia di previsioni indipendente che dal 1975 redige statistiche e previsioni su metalli e minerali, e dal World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), una struttura indipendente di ricerca sul mercato globale dei metalli industriali che pubblica una serie di analisi statistiche con cadenza mensile, trimestrale e annuale. Le previsioni sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo tramite modelli dedicati.

Previsioni Comparto Agricolo
I commenti sul comparto agricolo vengono elaborati sulla base di notizie e dati macroeconomici e di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream.
Le stime di consenso sui prodotti agricoli sono molteplici. Ogni singolo paese ha la propria agenzia interna di statistica che stima e prevede i raccolti, la capacità produttiva, la quantità di offerta di prodotti e soprattutto la quantità (assoluta e percentuale) di terra disponibile per la messa a coltura di un determinato prodotto.
A livello internazionale le principali agenzie sono: l’USDA (United States Department of Agricolture) che, oltre a fornire i dati relativi al territorio americano, si occupa in generale anche del settore granaglie a livello mondiale mediante il sottocomparto della FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service); l’Economist Intelligence Unit, del Gruppo Economist, che si occupa trasversalmente di tutti i prodotti agricoli a livello mondiale; e la CONAB (Companhia Naciònàl de Abastecimento), l’agenzia del Governo brasiliano che si occupa di agricoltura (con un occhio di riguardo per il caffè) e che fornisce anche uno sguardo su tutto il continente sudamericano.
Le previsioni sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo tramite modelli dedicati.

Livelli tecnici
I commenti sui livelli tecnici si basano sulle notizie e i dati di mercato disponibili tramite strumenti informativi quali Bloomberg e Refinitiv-Datastream. Le previsioni sui livelli tecnici di interesse sono realizzate dalla Direzione Studi e Ricerche di Intesa Sanpaolo tramite modelli tecnici dedicati. Le previsioni sono ottenute mediante l’analisi delle serie storico-statistiche rese disponibili dai maggiori data provider ed elaborate sulla base anche dei dati di consenso tenendo conto delle opportune correlazioni fra le stesse. Vi è inoltre un approfondimento legato alla scelta degli opportuni strumenti derivati che meglio rappresentano il comparto o la specifica commodity su cui si vuole investire.

Raccomandazioni
Outlook Negativo: la raccomandazione di outlook Negativo per un settore è un’indicazione di ampio respiro. Essa indica non solo il deteriorarsi delle condizioni di prezzo degli indici o dei future che meglio rappresentano la materia prima in questione (quindi il ridursi di una performance di prezzo), ma implica anche la riduzione delle previsioni produttive, climatiche e di approvvigionamento (energetico o idrico) che caratterizzano, più di altri strumenti finanziari, questi comparti.
Outlook Neutrale: la raccomandazione di outlook Neutrale per un settore è un’indicazione che abbraccia molti aspetti. Essa indica che la combinazione delle previsioni di prezzo per gli indici e i future e l’insieme delle condizioni produttive, climatiche e di approvvigionamento (energetico o idrico) porteranno ad un movimento laterale dei prezzi o delle scorte o della capacità produttiva, registrando perciò performance nulle o minime per il comparto in esame.
Outlook Positivo: la raccomandazione di outlook Positivo per un settore è un’indicazione di ampio spettro. Essa indica non solo il miglioramento netto delle condizioni di prezzo degli indici o dei future che meglio rappresentano la materia prima in questione (quindi una performance positiva di prezzo), ma implica anche il miglioramento delle previsioni produttive, climatiche e di approvvigionamento (energetico o idrico) che caratterizzano, più di altri strumenti finanziari, questi comparti.

Frequenza e validità delle previsioni

Le indicazioni di mercato si riferiscono a un orizzonte temporale di breve periodo (il giorno corrente o i giorni successivi, salvo diversa indicazione specificata nel testo). Le previsioni sono sviluppate su un orizzonte temporale compreso tra una settimana e 5 anni (salvo diversa indicazione specificata nel testo) e hanno una validità massima di tre mesi.

Comunicazione dei potenziali conflitti di interesse

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. e le altre società del Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo (di seguito anche solo “Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo”) si sono dotate del “Modello di organizzazione, gestione e controllo ai sensi del Decreto Legislativo 8 giugno 2001, n. 231” (disponibile sul sito internet di Intesa Sanpaolo, all’indirizzo: https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/it/governance/dlgs-231-2001) che, in conformità alle normative italiane vigenti ed alle migliori pratiche internazionali, include, tra le altre, misure organizzative e procedurali per la gestione delle informazioni privilegiate e dei conflitti di interesse, ivi compresi adeguati meccanismi di separatezza organizzativa, noti come Barriere informative, atti a prevenire un utilizzo illecito di dette informazioni nonché a evitare che gli eventuali conflitti di interesse che possono insorgere, vista la vasta gamma di attività svolte dal Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo, incidano negativamente sugli interessi della clientela.

In particolare, l’esplicitazione degli interessi e le misure poste in essere per la gestione dei conflitti di interesse – facendo riferimento a quanto prescritto dagli articoli 5 e 6 del Regolamento Delegato (UE) 2016/958 della Commissione, del 9 marzo 2016, che integra il Regolamento (UE) n. 596/2014 del Parlamento europeo e del Consiglio per quanto riguarda le norme tecniche di regolamentazione sulle disposizioni tecniche per la corretta presentazione delle raccomandazioni in materia di investimenti o altre informazioni che raccomandano o consigliano una strategia di investimento e per la comunicazione di interessi particolari o la segnalazione di conflitti di interesse e successive modifiche ed integrazioni, dal FINRA Rule 2241, così come dal FCA Conduct of Business Sourcebook regole COBS 12.4 – tra il Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo e gli Emittenti di strumenti finanziari, e le loro società del gruppo, nelle raccomandazioni prodotte dagli analisti di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. sono disponibili nelle “Regole per Studi e Ricerche” e nell’estratto del “Modello aziendale per la gestione delle informazioni privilegiate e dei conflitti di interesse”, pubblicato sul sito internet di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A all’indirizzo https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/it/research/RegulatoryDisclosures. Tale documentazione è disponibile per il destinatario dello studio anche previa richiesta scritta al Servizio Conflitti di interesse, Informazioni privilegiate ed altri presidi di Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., Via Hoepli, 10 – 20121 Milano – Italia.

Inoltre, in conformità con i suddetti regolamenti, le disclosure sugli interessi e sui conflitti di interesse del Gruppo Bancario Intesa Sanpaolo sono disponibili all’indirizzo https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/it/research/RegulatoryDisclosures/archivio-dei-conflitti-di-interesse ed aggiornate almeno al giorno prima della data di pubblicazione del presente studio. Si evidenzia che le disclosure sono disponibili per il destinatario dello studio anche previa richiesta scritta a Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. – Macroeconomic Analysis, Via Romagnosi, 5 – 20121 Milano – Italia.

Intesa Sanpaolo Spa agisce come market maker nei mercati all’ingrosso per i titoli di Stato dei principali Paesi europei e ricopre il ruolo di Specialista in Titoli di Stato, o similare, per i titoli emessi dalla Repubblica d’Italia, dalla Repubblica Federale di Germania, dalla Repubblica Ellenica, dal Meccanismo Europeo di Stabilità e dal Fondo Europeo di Stabilità Finanziaria.

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The jewellery industry global scenario in time of Covid-19

The jewellery industry global scenario in time of Covid-19

a speech by Sara Giusti

Abstract

The jewellery industry has been severely affected by the Covid19 pandemic. World demand dropped sharply in 2020, hitted by shop closures, stop in tourism flows, decrease in purchasing power across global consumers, increase uncertainty and gold prices at maximum levels. The scenario for 2021 remains highly uncertain, depending on the evolution of pandemic, with a rebound in demand that will still leave jewellery market well below 2019 levels.

The Italian jewellery industry in 2021

World demand for gold jewellery continued to grow in the third quarter of 2021 (+33%), with a slowdown expected compared to the growth in the first two quarters, which were the hardest hit by the crisis-related downturn in 2020. During the summer months, the Italian jewellery industry continued the strong performance already seen at the beginning of the year and for the first nine months as a whole it was already above pre-COVID levels both with respect to turnover (+13.1%) and exports in terms of values (+6.9%) and quantity (+8.0%).

Commodities: hit by Omicron and monetary policies

The negative impact of the Omicron variant and the threat of more restrictive monetary policies now represent the worst headwinds for commodity markets and could trigger deeper corrections in market prices in the near term. However, temporarily weaker commodity prices would clearly benefit the global economy, contributing to an acceleration in growth rates, and simplify the task of the main central banks, which could continue supporting the global recovery instead of fighting commodity-driven inflationary pressures.

Precious metals: we favour palladium vs. gold

In 2021, all the main precious metals have fallen in price. We maintain a negative view on both gold and silver, as we think that the headwinds of more restrictive monetary policies will continue to weaken appetite for both metals on financial markets. On the contrary, we now expect that platinum and palladium could recover part of their recent losses, as demand from the automotive sector should pick up thanks to the easing semiconductor shortage. Thus, in a medium-term strategic asset allocation we would favour palladium vs. gold.

The Italian jewellery industry in 2021

The recovery in world demand for gold jewellery continued in the third quarter of 2021 (+33%), although at a slower pace than in the first two quarters (+54% in the first quarter and +62% in the second quarter) and with a lag of -14% compared to the pre-crisis period. The Italian jewellery industry continued its strong performance which brought it above the values of the first nine months of 2019 both with respect to turnover (+13.1%) and exports in terms of values (+6.9%) and quantity (+8.0%).

In the third quarter of 2021, world demand for gold jewellery recovered significantly on 2020 (+33% in quantity), although with a natural slowdown compared to the first two quarters (+54% in the first quarter and +62% in the second quarter), which were hit harder by the crisis in 2020 (Fig. 1). For the first nine months of 2021 as a whole, world demand still lagged behind 2019 by -14%. Thanks to the strong upturn in the first three months (+216%), China was the market with the strongest growth in 2021 (+84%), followed by India (+45%) and the Middle East (+43%), which were among the markets with the highest growth in the third quarter, along with Hong Kong (Fig. 2). Compared to the pre-crisis period, China and the United States were the most important markets, which have already surpassed 2019 levels by +4.1% and 17.1% respectively.

Italian exports of gold jewellery, on the other hand, fully recovered their pre-COVID values in the first nine months of 2021, both in terms of values (+6.9%) and quantity (+8.0%), with a strong upturn in the second quarter (+251% in values; +273% in quantity), which also continued in the third quarter with growth rates of around 60% (Figures 3-4).

In the main export markets, the United States retained its role as the primary market for Italian gold jewellery exports due to values that almost doubled compared to the first nine months of 2020 (+98%) and to the fact that they exceeded pre-COVID figures both in terms of values (+66.3%) and quantities (+44.5%). The significant growth in exports to the Arab Emirates also continued (+141.1% in values; +151.0% in quantities), which recovered the amounts for the first nine months of 2019 (+8.8%), although still lagging behind in terms of quantities (-12.8%). Of particular note was the trade with Ireland, as a result of the policies of foreign operators already present in 2020 that confirmed the use of the Irish market as a tax and logistics base for other markets, probably also including the United Kingdom (where imports from Italy plummeted -35.8% in the period January-September). Despite the significant rebound (+42.1% in values and +48.9% in quantity), exports to Switzerland lagged behind the figures for the first nine months of 2019 by more than -35%, probably also in this case reflecting the distribution policies of the large luxury brands that use Switzerland as a main logistics hub. Particularly noteworthy was the growth in sales to South Africa, which more than doubled on 2020, when they had grown despite the crisis generated by the pandemic (Table 1).

At local level, the figures already recorded in the first two quarters were confirmed, with stronger performance in the provinces of Vicenza and Arezzo, which posted an overall recovery compared to 2020 of +70% for Vicenza and +92% for Arezzo, while the Valenza district recorded growth of +27%. This performance resulted in a full recovery compared to the pre-crisis period for the Vicenza and Arezzo districts, with an increase of +17% compared to 2019, while Valenza still lagged behind by -36%, probably influenced more than the other two districts by the pricing policies of multinationals (the figure at local level is only available in values and not in quantity) (Figures 5-6).

In the period January-September 2021, exports of the Vicenza jewellery district amounted to EUR 1.2Bn with growth of over EUR 480M compared to the same period of 2020 (+69.9%) and also up compared to 2019 (+16.7%). Exports were driven above all by the strong sales to the United States, which more than doubled on 2020 (+113%) with a substantial increase also compared to the pre-crisis period (+79.9%), and by the significant growth in exports to South Africa (+82.4% compared to 2020 and +74.6% compared to 2019). The growth in exports to Malaysia, which was already significant in 2020 (+94.4%), also strengthened, and in the first nine months of 2021 it ranked as the sixth largest market compared to tenth in 2020. Exports to the United Arab Emirates (+6.2%) exceeded 2019 levels, while exports to Hong Kong were not recovering (-52.1%) (Table 2).

The Arezzo district also recovered the value of pre-COVID exports and at EUR 1.8Bn had increased its value by around EUR 880M compared to the first nine months of 2020 (+92.4%) and by EUR 270M compared to 2019 (+17.3%). Of particular significance was the growth of exports to the United States, which more than doubled compared to 2020 (+129.5%) and significantly exceeded 2019 (+87.8%), as well as to South Africa, which increased on the value in 2019 by more than EUR 80M, coming to represent 5.1% of district exports. Also noteworthy was the complete recovery in exports to the United Arab Emirates (+15.3%), which is the primary market, in addition to the recovery versus France (+15.2%) and Turkey (+30.9%), while exports to Hong Kong continued to fall compared to 2019 (-37.1%) (Table 3).

The Valenza Po jewellery district, on the other hand, still showed a lag compared to 2019 (-36.2%) and, with a value of over EUR 1Bn in exports, recorded growth of EUR 222M compared to 2020 (+27.3%). The analysis of the countries of destination shows that this district was affected by the logistic choices of some major operators, which can be seen in the strong increase in sales to Ireland, which became the primary market from 2020, whereas in 2019 it accounted for just over 4% of exports. In contrast, exports to France were negatively affected, falling both in 2020 (-34.7%) and in 2019 (-73%), as well as exports to Switzerland (-23.4% in 2020 and -83.2% in 2019) (Table 4).

The production and turnover indices confirmed the signs of recovery: in the average for the first nine months of 2021, industrial production and turnover in the sector grew by around 65% compared to 2020, but they also increased by 13.1% in turnover and 8.5% in production when compared to the average for 2019 (Fig. 7). The latest results for October also confirmed this trend with indices increasing 15% over 2019 in terms of turnover and production.

The outlook for the global economy is currently very uncertain, due to the persistent supply bottlenecks, but real growth expectations remain robust in 2022. The Italian jewellery industry has shown itself to be well capable of responding to the crisis, thanks to the strong presence in international markets, with a growing focus on digitalisation, brand policies and sustainability, bolstered by the quality and elegance of Italian-made jewellery.


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Additive manufacturing of platinum alloys – practical aspects during LPBF of jewellery items

Additive manufacturing of platinum alloys – practical aspects during LPBF of jewellery items

a speech by Ulrich Klotz

Abstract

In the present paper, optimum process parameters were determined for typical 950Pt jewellery alloy. Optimum densities of <99.9% were reached for a wide range of processing parameters. However, the resulting density was found to depend significantly on the part geometry and on the chosen support structure. The supports have to take into account for the geometrical orientation of the part relative to the laser build direction and the orientation on the build plate. Local overheating is responsible for porosity in these areas. Therefore, the supports play an important role in the thermal management have to be optimized for each part. The design of suitable supports was successfully demonstrated for a typical jewellery ring sample.

1 Introduction

The additive manufacturing of platinum alloys jewellery items found increasing interest in the last years. However, so far most work focused on gold alloys [1–4] and publications presented results on platinum alloys [5–7] Two aspects promote such interest: on one hand, the investment casting process of platinum alloys is rather challenging and struggles with casting defects such as shrinkage porosity, micro porosity or investment reactions [8–10]. On the other hand the physical properties of platinum alloys, particularly the reflectivity of the infrared laser light, are much more similar to steel or titanium alloys [11]. This makes the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process much easier compared to gold or silver alloys. In the past, the LPBF process of different 950Pt alloys has been successfully demonstrated for several alloys on different machines [5,12].
In the present work LPBF trials were conducted with a commercially available 950Pt-Au-In alloy (alloy 951Pt P1, C. Hafner, Germany). The LPBF process parameter were optimized concerning minimum porosity. The effect of support structures was studied and effects on alloy chemistry and defects are described in detail.

2 Experimental

2.1 Laser Powder Bed Fusion experiments

A MLab R LaserCUSING machine (ConceptLaser/GE Additive, Lichtenfels, Germany) with a laser power of max. 100 W was used in this study. The laser power was set to 95 W and kept constant for all tests. Despite the relatively low laser power a sufficient energy density could be achieved because of the small spot size (30 µm) of the machine. A two-step scanning routine was applied where the contour scan was made prior to the hatch scan [1]. The contour scan speed was 600 mm/s for all tests. The hatch scan parameters were varied to find optimum parameters with minimum porosity in a test part. The hatch distance and the laser speed were changed from 27 – 63 µm and 100 – 600 mm/s, respectively. The powder was provided as alloyed powder. It had a size distribution of 5 -30 µm (d10/d90 value) and was applied with rubber lip wiper in layers of 20 µm.
The test part has an angular shape with wires and plates of different diameters similar to the one described in [1]. The support structure and the slicing of the model was done with the software AutoFab. The part was oriented in a 45° angle relative to the movement of the wiper.

2.2 Microstructure investigation and porosity measurement

The test parts were embedded in epoxy (EPO Fix) and metallographically prepared. Grinding was done with grit P320, P600, P1200 paper followed by subsequent polishing with 9 µm and 3 µm diamond paste The last polishing step was made with 0,04 µm OPS suspension. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images were obtained by a ZEISS Gemini instrument that is equipped with an energy dispersive x-ray (EDX) instrument for local chemical analysis.
The porosity measurement was conducted by image analysis with the software AxioVision (ZEISS, Germany) on a stitched light optical image recorded at 5x optical magnification (Figure 1). The horizontal part of the sample was selected as region of interest (ROI). In order to determine the porosity the image was binarized using a threshold value at the minimum of the histogram. The porosity value is given as the percentage of black pixels inside the ROI.

3 Results

3.1 Process parameter optimization

Figure 1 shows two examples of test samples that were produced by different sets of laser parameters. The right part shows the optimum process parameters with minimum porosity. Figure 2 illustrates the effect of the laser parameters on the porosity. The lowest porosity values of about 0,1 % (99,9% density) were achieved for a hatch distance of 63 µm. At this hatch distance, the porosity levels are nearly independent of the laser speed. The porosity increases with decreasing hatch distance and increasing laser speed. Both, decreasing hatch distance and increasing laser speed result in lack-of-fusion porosity. A hatch distance of 63 µm and a laser sped of 500 mm/s were selected as optimum parameters throughout this study.

Figure 1: Typical metallographic section of the test samples. Left: hatch distance 27 µm, laser speed 600 mm/s. Right: hatch distance 63 µm, laser speed 500 mm/s

Figure 2: Effect of hatch distance and laser speed on the porosity. Laser power 95W.

3.2 Design of support structures for jewellery parts

Two jewellery items, typical engagement rings with three or seven stones, were provided by project partners for additive manufacturing. The rings were supported by columnar hollow supports in areas less than 45° to the build plate (Figure 3). The supports were symmetrical on both sides of the ring. The wiper applied the powder on the build plate perpendicular to the plane of the ring shank. The laser direction was from right to left. Defects occurred on the right side in unsupported areas of the ring shank. Along a certain length of the ring shank, material is missing, but only on the right, outer side of the ring shank. The problem starts at the end of the support structure and it ends at a build angle of 90°.

Figure 3: As manufactured rings with standard support structure. The arrow marks defects on one side of the ring shank.

In order to understand the problem, the AM process was interrupted at a height of 7 mm, which is in the problematic region of the ring shank. An SEM investigation of the last built layer (Figure 4) indicates a perfect surface on the left side of ring. On the right side however, the surface appears highly porous. The surface is uneven with significant balling of the melt pool. The view on the outer surface of the ring shank and a metallographic section through the centre of the ring shank (Figure 5) show powder particles that stick to the surface. The powder particles itself show a layer of much finer particles that appears like a kind of condensate on the surface. Local chemical analysis using EDX showed an enrichment of the condensate in the alloying Au and In compared to the ring shank material.

Figure 4: Interrupted build job at a height of ca. 7mm. Surface of the left and right side of the ring shank according to Figure 3.

Figure 5: Detail of the surface area of the right ring shank as marked in Figure 4.

4 Discussion

4.1 Parameter optimization

Suitable LPBF parameters of the chosen 950Pt platinum could be determined to obtain a porosity below 0,1 %. The porosity is a factor of 10 lower compared to surface treated 18k 3N gold alloys that were produced using the same machine [1]. Staiger [13] investigated the width and depth of laser tracks on metallic sheet material and found that the width and depth of a 950 platinum alloy was comparable to austenitic stainless steel and grade 5 titanium. 18k palladium white gold showed slightly higher width and depth compared to 950 platinum, while 18k yellow and red gold showed much lower width and depth of the laser lines. The similarity of 950 platinum to austenitic stainless steel and grade 5 titanium is due to its similar reflectivity for the infrared light and the similar thermal conductivity.
The porosity of parts produced by LPBF is a function of scan speed [14,15]. At low scan speed, i.e. high energy tendency the porosity is relatively high due to keyhole porosity. Keyholing could be achieved on 950 platinum sheet only at extremely low scan speed (25-50 mm/s at 95W) [13]. According to Tang et al. [15] the lowest porosity is a achieved in a range of medium scan speed. For 950 platinum alloys, this was achieved in the present study at 100-600 mm/s (hatch distance 63 µm, laser power of 95 W, Figure 2). If the scan speed is further increased, Tang et al. [15] describe an increase of porosity due to lack of fusion. This work showed lack of fusion in 950 platinum for hatch distances below 63 µm. The previous study on 18K yellow gold [1] found lack of fusion for the complete range of process parameters. Fully dense gold parts could be achieved at much higher laser powers of 375 W [4].

4.2 Optimization of the support structure

The condensation of material that was observed on the defective ring shank (Figure 5) requires an initial evaporation of alloying elements. This is a clear indication of localised excessive heating of the material. In order to identify the reason for such overheating the process condition were analysed in detail. It appears that the laser is working from the right to the left during the hatch scan. The different curvature of the ring on left and right side relative to the laser direction results in insufficient heat dissipation on the right side of the ring shank. The laser is scanning from right to left. Therefore, it first encounters an unsupported powder bed with limited heat dissipation on the right side of the ring shank. As a consequence, about 50% of ring shank cross section (Figure 4) is locally overheated, which results in the evaporation of the lower melting elements (Au, In) of the alloys. The left ring shank however does not sufer from such overheating because the laser starts on a well supported powder bed. On the very left side of the left ring shank the already lasered layer provides sufficient heat dissipation to prevent overheating.
In order to prevent the defective ring shank, sufficient heat dissipation has to be provided on the right side of the ring shank by additional supports. The critical angle that requires additional supports was determined to be ca. 61° and 72° on the left and the right side of the ring shank, respectively. The critical angles on either side were determined by an optical quality control of the rings.The supports should reach up to 6 mm and 8 mm on the left and the right side of the ring, respectively. Such regions are marked in red in Figure 6. These angles are much larger than a conventional rule of thumb that only surfaces with an angle below 45° should require supports.

Figure 6: Critical regions with possible excessive heating are shown in red.

Finally, all regions with smaller angles relative to the building plate were supported. Figure 7 shows the support structures before and after optimization. With the optimized supports the ring could be manufactured without defects Figure 8. Polishing and stone setting resulted in perfect finish.

Figure 7: CAD-Model of the ring with the original support structure (left) and the optimized support structure (right). Arrows indicate the additional supports.

Figure 8: Final ring (outer diameter 23 mm) with optimized support structure after the LPBF process (left) and after polishing and stone setting (right).

5 Summary and Conclusions

The additive manufacturing of 950 platinum alloys was successfully demonstrated by the laser powder bed fusion technology. The optimum process parameters were a hatch distance of 63 µm and a laser speed of 100-600 mm/s at a laser power of 95 W (Nd-YAG laser with 1064nm wavelength and a spot size of 30 µm). For such parameters a residual porosity below 0,1 % could be reached. A smaller hatch distance resulted in lack of fusion porosity. 950 platinum alloys can be processed with similar parameters like austenitic stainless steel (316L).
Jewellery ring samples were prepared with conventional support structures. However, it appeared that the supports have to take into account machine-specific laser scanning procedures. Additional supports were required at positions were the laser encounters an unsupported powder bed, if the orientation of the parts was below ca. 72° relative to the build plate. Otherwise, excessive heating resulted in the evaporation of material and defective surfaces. Therefore, a careful design of the supports structures has to be considered as part of the LPBF process optimization.

6 Acknowledgements

This research project was supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) through the AiF (IGF no. 20670N) based on a decision taken by the German Bundestag. We kindly acknowledge the support of the members of the users committee, in particular, the provision of 950Pt alloy powder and 3D CAD models by C. Hafner GmbH+Co.KG and Christian Bauer Schmuck GmbH+Co.KG, respectively. We thank the colleagues at fem for their contribution, namely Dario Tiberto, Daniel Blessing and for the additive manufacturing trials, metallography and SEM.

7 References

[1] U.E. Klotz, D. Tiberto, F. Held, Optimization of 18-karat yellow gold alloys for the additive manufacturing of jewelry and watch parts, Gold Bull. 50 (2017) 111–121. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13404-017-0201-4.
[2] U.E. Klotz, D. Tiberto, F.J. Held, Additive manufacturing of gold alloys, Galvanotechnik. 110 (2019) 1436–1439.
[3] 2018 – Precious Project: Polishing and Finishing Additive Manufacturing (AM) Jewelry, St. Fe Symp. (n.d.). http://www.santafesymposium.org/2018-santa-fe-symposium-papers/2018-precious-project-polishing-and-finishing-additive-manufacturing-am-jewelry (accessed November 12, 2021).
[4] H. Ghasemi-Tabasi, J. Jhabvala, E. Boillat, T. Ivas, R. Drissi-Daoudi, R.E. Logé, An effective rule for translating optimal selective laser melting processing parameters from one material to another, Addit. Manuf. 36 (2020) 101496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addma.2020.101496.
[5] D. Zito, A. Carlotta, A. Loggi, P. Sbornicchia, D. Bruttomesso, S. Rappo, Definition and Solidity of Gold and Platinum Jewelry Produced Using Selective Laser Melting (SLMTM) Technology, in: St. Fe Symp. Jewel. Manuf. Technol., Met-Chem Research, ABQ, NM USA, 2015: pp. 455–491.
[6] D. Zito, A. Carlotto, Optimization of SLM Technology Main Parameters in the Production of Gold and Platinum Jewelry, (2014). https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/!-!-!-!-!-!-!-Optimization-of-SLM-Technology-Main-Zito-Carlotto/b6e82b6c0fcf378dc654b1b4e506ce2b8608a4fc (accessed November 12, 2021).
[7] J. Strauss, Additive Manufacturing of Precious Metals, in: 2020. https://doi.org/10.31399/asm.hb.v24.a0006556.
[8] U.E. Klotz, T. Drago, The role of process parameters in platinum casting, Platin. Met. Rev. 55 (2011) 20–27. https://doi.org/10.1595/147106711X540373.
[9] T. Heiss, U.E. Klotz, D. Tiberto, Platinum investment casting, part i: Simulation and experimental study of the casting process, Johns. Matthey Technol. Rev. 59 (2015) 95–108. https://doi.org/10.1595/205651315X687399.
[10] U.E. Klotz, T. Heiss, D. Tiberto, Platinum investment casting, part II: Alloy optimisation by thermodynamic simulation and experimental verifi cation, Johns. Matthey Technol. Rev. 59 (2015) 129–138. https://doi.org/10.1595/205651315X687515.
[11] U.E. Klotz, D. Tiberto, F. Held, Additive Manufacturing of 18Karat Yellow-Gold Alloys, in: St. Fe Symp. 2016, Met-Chem Research, ABQ, NM, USA, 2016: pp. 255–272. http://www.santafesymposium.org/2016-santa-fe-symposium-papers/2016-additive-manufacturing-of-18karat-yellow-gold-alloys-1 (accessed November 12, 2021).
[12] T. Laag, J. Heinrich, Powder Processing of Platinum Group Metals: Advantages and Challenges, in: St. Fe Symp. 2018, Met-Chem Research, ABQ, NM, USA, 2018: pp. 327–343. https://www.santafesymposium.org/2018-santa-fe-symposium-papers/2018-powder-processing-of-platinum-group-metals-advantages-and-challenges?rq=platinum (accessed November 12, 2021).
[13] R. Staiger, Einfluss der Prozessparameter und er Werkstoffeigenschaften bei der additiven Fertigung von metallischen Werkstoffen, Bachelor Thesis, HFU Hochschule Furtwangen, 2019.
[14] H. Gong, K. Rafi, H. Gu, T. Starr, B. Stucker, Analysis of defect generation in Ti–6Al–4V parts made using powder bed fusion additive manufacturing processes, Addit. Manuf. 1–4 (2014) 87–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addma.2014.08.002.
[15] M. Tang, P.C. Pistorius, J.L. Beuth, Prediction of lack-of-fusion porosity for powder bed fusion, Addit. Manuf. 14 (2017) 39–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addma.2016.12.001.

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Precious metals: transitioning into a post-pandemic world

Precious metals: transitioning into a post-pandemic world

a speech by Daniela Corsini

Abstract

In 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic disrupted global supply chains and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. In 2021, the global gold market should benefit from a rebound in jewelry demand and a supportive macroeconomic environment amid expansionary monetary policies, low interest rates and a pick-up in inflation expectations.

Commodities: hit by Omicron and monetary policies

The negative impact of the Omicron variant and the threat of more restrictive monetary policies now represent the worst headwinds for commodity markets and could trigger deeper corrections in market prices in the near term. However, temporarily weaker commodity prices would clearly benefit the global economy, contributing to an acceleration in growth rates, and simplify the task of the main central banks, which could continue supporting the global recovery instead of fighting commodity-driven inflationary pressures.

The macroeconomic outlook remains weaker than earlier expected due to persistently high inflation pressures, and concerns about a quicker than earlier expected pace of tightening from the Federal Reserve. In addition, the unexpected spread of the Omicron variant forced downward revisions to estimates about global commodity demand, further delaying the recovery in some sectors, like the aviation industry, or worsening the prospects of global supply chains due to the persistent threat of logistic bottlenecks and lockdowns.

In our opinion, the negative impact of the Omicron variant and the threat of more restrictive monetary policies now represent the worst headwinds for commodity markets and could trigger deeper corrections in market prices in the near term.

However, temporarily weaker commodity prices would clearly benefit the global economy, contributing to an acceleration in growth rates, and simplify the task of the main central banks, which could continue supporting the global recovery instead of fighting commodity-driven inflationary pressures.

According to our baseline scenario, after a probable, deeper correction in early 2022, most commodities could resume a path of modest price increases. In fact, market prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals could recover part of the lost ground as soon as central banks reassure markets and global economic growth consolidates.

In 2022, specific supply and demand fundamentals should come back as core drivers of commodity prices, prevailing over macroeconomic factors, and volatility should be mainly fuelled by news flows about supply disruptions, delays across the logistic chains and forecasts about future consumption patterns, especially in China.

In the medium- and long-term, we still forecast a bullish trend for industrial metals, while natural gas and energy prices should gradually decrease, maintaining their usual seasonal swings.

Forecasts for the commodities universe

Crude oil. Given the recent weakening in crude oil supply and demand fundamentals and concerns about a quicker pace toward restrictive monetary policies, we revised downwards our estimates for crude prices in 2022. In our opinion, a temporary correction could push Brent near an average of USD 65 in 1Q22. Then, upward pressures on crude prices could resume strength driven by more optimistic forecasts about global crude demand, thanks to a seasonal increase in fuel consumption and, hopefully, easing concerns about the development of the epidemic. Thus, we envisage a rising trend in crude prices from the 2Q22 onwards. In our baseline scenario, we now forecast that on average Brent should record a level of USD 67.5 in 2022 and USD 70 in 2023. Volatility should remain an important market feature and will often contribute to amplify intra-day market movements.

Energy. Although the extreme conditions faced by global gas and power markets ahead of the 2021/22 winter are unlikely to repeat every year, we can expect further moments of market stress and more volatility on energy prices, as the necessary and ineluctable transition toward cleaner energy sources proceeds and the penetration of renewable energies progresses.

Precious metals. In 2021, all the main precious metals have fallen in price. We maintain a negative view on both gold and silver, as we think that the headwinds of more restrictive monetary policies will continue to weaken appetite for both metals on financial markets. On the contrary, we now expect that platinum and palladium could recover part of their recent losses, as demand from the automotive sector should pick up thanks to the easing semiconductor shortage.

Industrial metals. After the unexpected spread of the Omicron variant and talks about a quicker pace of tightening from the Federal Reserve, the risk of a deeper correction in most industrial metals’ prices intensified and now we see lower prices in 1Q22. However, later in 2022 specific supply and demand fundamentals should come back as core drivers of metals’ prices, and non-ferrous metals’ prices should recover ground. In the medium- and long-term, we still forecast a bullish trend for industrial metals.

Agricultural products. Agriculture is the most supply-elastic commodity sector. Thus, the high prices recorded in 2021 should contribute to expand supplies in 2022, when possible, and could trigger widespread price declines in anticipation of the next harvest season. However, unusual weather patterns remain the most worrying threat and could fuel volatility due to deeper and less predictable impacts of climate change and global warming on the sector.

Precious metals: we favour palladium vs. gold

In 2021, all the main precious metals have fallen in price. We maintain a negative view on both gold and silver, as we think that the headwinds of more restrictive monetary policies will continue to weaken appetite for both metals on financial markets. On the contrary, we now expect that platinum and palladium could recover part of their recent losses, as demand from the automotive sector should pick up thanks to the easing semiconductor shortage. Thus, in a medium-term strategic asset allocation we would favour palladium vs. gold.

In 2021, all the main precious metals have fallen in price. Gold and silver suffered downward pressures due to a stronger U.S. dollar and announcements from the main central banks anticipating tighter monetary policies. In fact, expectations of higher rates discourage investments in gold and other non-interest-bearing assets as they increase their opportunity cost. We maintain a negative view on both metals, as we think that the headwinds of more restrictive monetary policies will continue to weaken appetite for gold on financial markets. Currently, silver isn’t strong enough to decouple from gold despite the promising fundamentals in the long term.

In the second half, platinum and palladium prices also dropped, as the global shortage of semiconductors had a deeper than expected negative impact on global vehicle production and thus on consumption of both metals. Prices probably bottomed and we now expect that platinum and palladium could recover part of their recent losses, as demand from the automotive sector should pick up thanks to the easing semiconductor shortage.

In our baseline scenario, we envisage a consolidation in global growth and a gradual easing of bottlenecks and semiconductor shortage. Monetary policies should tighten, but remain supportive of the global economic recovery as long as necessary. Thus, in a medium-term strategic asset allocation we would favour palladium vs. gold.

Gold

The latest data published by the World Gold Council (WGC) show that appetite for gold on financial markets further deteriorated during 3Q21 as monetary policies were tightening and the Fed progressed toward the planned tapering.

Considering ETFs’ holdings as a proxy for gold appetite on financial markets, at the end of September global holdings were close to 3,600 tons, as the sector had recorded outflows worth about 156 tons since January 2021, the largest decline since 2013. In 3Q21, ETFs’ gold holdings decreased by about 27 tons, thus ETFs’ contribution to gold demand turned negative during the quarter, representing a net loss worth about 2% of global demand. It is a remarkable change in market sentiment, when considering that ETFs’ flows were a positive contributor worth about 4% of global consumption in 2Q21 and covered a stunning 40% of demand in 2Q20.

Given the relevance of ETFs’ flows, in 3Q21 global gold demand contracted by 7% y/y, although all non-financial components of gold demand rose. In fact, a recovery in global economic growth boosted gold consumption in the jewellery (+33% y/y) and technology sectors (+7% y/y), while higher saving rates, concerns about inflation risks and uncertainty about epidemiological developments fuelled demand for bars and coins (+18% y/y). In the official sector, a renewed appetite in diversifying official reserves supported gold demand. In fact, central banks turned from net sellers of gold in 3Q20 to net buyers of the precious metal in 3Q21.

Given the current expectations of tighter monetary policies and still robust global growth, over the next quarters the non-financial components of gold demand may extend their recovery, and we envisage higher purchases from the jewellery, technology and official sectors. On the contrary, gold-backed ETFs could suffer from more outflows due to an increase in the opportunity cost of holding gold, amid expectations of higher yields and threats of higher benchmark interest rates.

According to our baseline model, we forecast that gold could average about USD 1,770 in 1Q22 and could decline toward a USD 1,720 average in 2022. Despite the unfavourable monetary framework, we envisage only moderate downside pressures on gold prices thanks to the important support of the ongoing recovery in the jewellery sector, which should gain support from global growth, and of the official sector, as central banks could take advantage of lower gold prices to diversify their reserves. In addition, inflation concerns could limit the volumes of ETFs’ outflows.

Given the exceptionally high level of uncertainty that clouds the macroeconomic framework due to unpredictable development in epidemiological risks, record high energy prices and persistent bottlenecks negatively affecting logistic chains and manufacturing activities, our forecasts remain subject to significant risks.

The worst-case scenario for gold would be a macroeconomic environment characterized by a further acceleration in global growth, thanks to fading epidemiologic concerns, easing bottlenecks and a strong commitment from central banks to intervene and prevent the economy from overheating. In fact, under this scenario investors would favour cyclical assets against safe haven assets, while higher interest rates would also discourage gold holdings. Under such worst-case scenario, gold could quickly drop toward a USD 1,450 support.

On the contrary, the best-case scenario for gold would be a macroeconomic environment characterized by a deterioration in the prospects for global growth, possibly driven by a spreading epidemic coupled with scarcely effective vaccines. Central banks would be forced to postpone a planned tightening of monetary conditions in an effort to support their economies, while bottlenecks to logistic and supply chains would persist, fuelling inflation pressures. Under such extreme scenario of stagflation, gold could retest its peaks above USD 2,000.

Silver

According to our baseline model, silver should trade close to an average price of USD 24 an ounce both in 1Q22 and in 2022. We expect that the metal could remain most of the time in a trading range between USD 21 and USD 27 an ounce.

Relative to gold, silver should maintain higher volatility, but it will not probably be strong enough to decouple from the yellow metal. Thus, silver will probably follow gold’s downward trajectory over the next years despite positive fundamentals and expectations of expanding global demand, especially in green technologies.

We expect that the gold/silver ratio could remain slightly above its long-term average over the next years, as the long-term positive correlation between silver and gold should remain significant, despite the support granted to silver by the green transition.

Platinum and palladium

Our forecasts for platinum-group metals (PGM) are strictly connected with expectations about a possible recovery in the automotive sector and thus with developments in the semiconductor crisis. In fact, according to estimates from Johnson Matthey, about 85% of palladium demand comes from autocatalysis mainly used in vehicles mounting gasoline-powered engines, while more than 30% of platinum demand comes from autocatalysis mainly used in vehicles mounting diesel-powered engines.

In 2021, PGM have gone through a boom and bust cycle. In fact, in the first half platinum and palladium overperformed other precious metals because car manufacturers quickly expanded their purchases to restock their warehouses and satisfy new vehicle orders, despite the first signs of disruptions to global supply chains due to semiconductors’ shortage.

Then, as time passed, and the global recovery consolidated, semiconductor scarcity deepened and forced car manufacturers to scale down their output plans and even halt some production facilities. As a consequence, PGM demand faded. Several car producers revised downwards their output guidance, fuelling pessimism on financial markets and raising doubts about future consumption growth for platinum and palladium in the sector.

Now, car producers are probably adequately supplied to meet their medium-term needs of PGM. Thus, so far low prices have failed to attract consumers due to still uncertain estimates about future vehicle production. In the longer term, although we still see ample room for a recovery in prices, probably the upward potential for PGM prices has been structurally lowered by the semiconductor crisis, as the current delays in PGM consumption patterns imply more time for global PGM supply to satisfy demand and more time for secondary supply to flow back in the market thanks to a pick-up in recycling activities.

Our baseline scenario now assumes an average platinum price of USD 1,025 an ounce and an average palladium price of USD 2,000 an ounce in 1Q22. We forecast that in 2022 platinum could trade near a USD 1,075 average and palladium near a USD 2,050 average.

In our opinion, palladium probably bottomed in late November, as USD 1,700 should represent a strong support for the metal. On the contrary, the USD 950 low reached in November is a weaker support for platinum, and we see the level of USD 900 as a more solid floor.

We maintain a bullish view in the long term (albeit forecast numbers have been revised downward from previous forecasts due to longer and deeper than expected disruptions along the supply chain) because we expect that the semiconductor crisis could ease in 2022, following plans to expand the global output of microchip, and both vehicle production and global demand for PGM should pick up.

Appendix

Analyst Certification

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Valuation Methodology

This document has been prepared in accordance with the following method.

Macroeconomic Data
Comments on macroeconomic data are prepared based on macroeconomic and market news and data available via information providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv-Datastream. Macroeconomic and interest rate forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated econometric models. Forecasts are obtained using analyses of historical-statistical data series made available by the leading data providers and also on the basis of consensus data, taking account of appropriate connections between them.

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Comments on the Energy Sector are prepared based on macroeconomic and market news and data available via information providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv-Datastream. Unless otherwise stated, consensus estimates come from the leading international energy Agencies, primarily the IEA (International Energy Agency – which deals with this sector on a global scale), the EIA (Energy Information Administration – an institute that deals specifically with the US energy sector) and OPEC. Forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated models.

Forecasts in the Metals Sector
Comments on the Metals Sector are prepared based on macroeconomic and market news and data available via information providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv-Datastream.
Unless otherwise specified consensus estimates on precious metals come mainly from GFMS, the long-established forecasting agency based in London. The forecasts cover gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated models.
Unless otherwise stated, consensus estimates for industrial metals come mainly from Brook Hunt, an independent forecasting agency which has prepared statistics and predictions on metals and minerals since 1975, and from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), an independent research body on the global market of industrial metals which publishes a series of monthly, quarterly and annual statistical analyses. Forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated models.

Forecasts in the Agricultural Sector
Comments on the Agricultural Sector are prepared based on macroeconomic and market news and data available via information providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv-Datastream.
There are several consensus estimates on agricultural products. Each individual country has its own internal statistics agency that estimates and forecasts crops, production capacity, the product supply quantities and, above all, the amount of land available for cultivating a particular product, in both absolute and percentage terms.
At an international level, the main agencies are: the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) which, in addition to providing data on the US territory, also deals in general with the grain industry worldwide through the FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service); the Economist Intelligence Unit of the Economist Group which deals with all agricultural products on a global scale; and CONAB (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento), the Brazilian Government agency that deals with agriculture (with a particular focus on coffee) and which also provides some insight into the entire South America.
Forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated models.

Technical levels
Comments on technical levels are based on market news and data available via information providers such as Bloomberg and Refinitiv-Datastream. Interest rate technical level forecasts are prepared by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department, using dedicated technical models. Forecasts are obtained using analyses of historical-statistical data series made available by the leading data providers and also on the basis of consensus data, taking account of appropriate connections between them. There is also a further in-depth study linked to the choice of appropriate derivatives that best represent the sector or the specific commodities on which one intends to invest.

Recommendations
Negative Outlook: a Negative Outlook recommendation for a sector is a wide-ranging indication. It not only indicates deteriorating price conditions of the indices or futures that best represent the commodity in question (thus the reduction of a price performance), but it also implies the deterioration in the forecasts on production, weather and input supplies (like water or energy) that characterize these sectors more than other financial instruments.
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Market indications refer to a short period of time (the same day or the following days, unless stated otherwise in the text). Forecasts are developed over a time span of between one week and 5 years (unless specified otherwise in the text) and have a maximum validity of three months.

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Furthermore, in accordance with the aforesaid regulations, the disclosures of the Intesa Sanpaolo Banking Group’s interests and conflicts of interest are available through webpage https://group.intesasanpaolo.com/en/research/RegulatoryDisclosures/archive-of-intesa-sanpaolo-group-s-conflicts-of-interest. The conflicts of interest published on the internet site are updated to at least the day before the publishing date of this report.
We highlight that disclosures are also available to the recipient of this report upon making a written request to Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. – Macroeconomic Analysis, Via Romagnosi, 5 – 20121 Milan – Italy.
Intesa Sanpaolo Spa acts as market maker in the wholesale markets for the government securities of the main European countries and also acts as Government Bond Specialist, or in comparable roles, for the government securities issued by the Republic of Italy, by the Federal Republic of Germany, by the Hellenic Republic, by the European Stability Mechanism and by the European Financial Stability Facility.

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Lithography-based metal manufacturing of jewelry and watch cases made from 316L stainless steel and titanium alloys

Lithography-based metal manufacturing of jewelry and watch cases made from 316L stainless steel and titanium alloys

a speech by Carlo Buckhardt

Abstract

In order to overcome existing restraints in the in-service behaviour of currently available additive manufacturing (AM) materials’ sets, an advanced production method for high performance technology metals was developed on the basis of a modified vat polymerisation-based (VP) printing for metal powders. The new lithography-based metal manufacturing (LMM) process is able to photoharden highly filled innovative metal-photopolymeric binder.
After debinding and sintering, the fully dense metal AM parts will provide various advantages such as superior properties with respect to cracks or internal stress when compared to laser-based powder bed fusion (L-PBF) AM parts. LMM is suitable to build very detailed, complex structures with a minimum of after-treatments without need for support structures, exhibiting superior surface quality, having less demanding requests with respect to powder particle size/morphology and allowing effective re-use of the feedstock materials.
In the paper, the LMM process will be explained in detail, its suitability for the production of jewellery and watch pieces will be demonstrated for stainless steel type materials and titanium alloys on various samples, an outlook for precious metal powders will be given

Pforzheim University

  • founded 1899
  • one of the biggest Universities for Applied Sciences in Germany (~6.000 students)
  • threefaculties:
    Business, Economics & Law
    Engineering
    Design
  • 29 Bachelor-and 17 Master-Courses
  • one of 7 fully certified universities in Germany

Institute for Precious and Technology Metals

Partner oftheregional precision engineering industry

  • contract research, serial inspections, damage analyses, expert opinions, production optimisations, etc.
  • fully equipped materials lab; incl. 2 SEM, FIB, EDX/XRD, Laserscan, DTA, mechanical testing, corrosionetc. (DAkkSakkredited)
    National and international research partner
  • recycling of rare earth metals/permanent magnets
  • additive manufacturing of metals
    Head: Prof. Dr.Carlo Burkhardt
  • 4 national projects, 3 international multilateral (EU) projects (>30 M€ overall budget)

LMM Additive Manufacturing

Lithography-based Metal Manufacturing

  • basedon theVat-PolymerizationPrinciple
  • verygoodsurfacecharacteristics
  • verygoodgeometricalprecision
  • nothermal distortions
  • materials: stainlesssteel, toolsteel, titanium, […]
  • suitable also for non-weldable materials
  • printing speed: max. 16 cm³/h
  • suitable for:
  • smalland very small parts(<30g)
  • smalltomoderate quantities

LMM-Process

How it works





LMM-Process

Sintering

LMM-Process

Shrinkage

LMM-Process

Precision

  • finished part tolerances up to ±0.5% of nominal dimension possible
  • stair-step effect due to layer-by-layer production

LMM-Process

Surfaces

LMM-Process

Some parts




MetShape GmbH

  • Start-up and spin-off of Pforzheim University as of 01.04.2019
  • funded by the program “Young Innovators” of the Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts Baden-Württemberg
  • specialized in additive component manufacturing using the Lithography-based Metal Manufacturing process (LMM) and related development services
  • main focus:

    • conducting feasibility studies for components and materials
    • small scale productions
    • installationof process chains for in-house production

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THE EVOLUTION OF PLATINUM JEWELLERY ALLOYS: FROM THE 1920s TO THE 2020s

THE EVOLUTION OF PLATINUM JEWELLERY ALLOYS: FROM THE 1920s TO THE 2020s

a speech by Christopher W Corti

Abstract

Platinum has only been known to Europe since the 16th century. This was impure platinum which is found as grains of native metal in alluvial deposits, often associated with native gold. Such grains are mainly platinum alloyed with the other 5 platinum group metals and were exploited by pre-Colombian Indians of Ecuador and Colombia in NW South America.

In more recent times, the popular use of platinum in jewellery dates from the early 20th century, often as a basis for diamond (and other precious gemstone) jewellery.  Its use in jewellery was restricted in the Second World War as it was considered a strategic industrial metal with limited availability. Thus, early jewellery alloys tended to be based on the existing industrial alloys and comparatively little development of specific jewellery alloys was carried out.  Its acceptance as a hallmarkable jewellery metal came much later in 1975 when, with a wider availability of the metal, platinum was promoted as a high value jewellery metal and platinum jewellery started to grow in popularity, mainly at 950 and 900 fineness qualities. Since that time there has been alloy development specifically for jewellery application and tailored to the requirements of different manufacturing technologies.

This presentation reviews the evolution of platinum alloys over the last century against the challenges – physical and metallurgical – presented in developing improved alloys for jewellery application.

INTRODUCTION

Platinum has only been known to Europe since the 16th century with rumours of the existence of a white metal, platina, in central and south America that cannot be melted1. This was impure platinum which is found as grains of native metal in alluvial deposits, often associated with native gold. Such grains are mainly platinum alloyed with the other 5 platinum group metals (PGMs – palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, osmium and iridium) – and were exploited by pre-Colombian Indians of Ecuador and Colombia in NW South America. Analysis of ancient trinkets indicates that iron and copper were also present as impurities1.

JEWELLERY ALLOYS: 1920s to 1999

In more recent times, the popular use of platinum in jewellery dates from the late 19th– early 20th century, often as a basis for diamond (and other precious gems) jewellery. Smith, in his book published in 19332, notes its use in jewellery at 99.5% fineness with small additions of alloying metals to harden it, including Ir, Rh, Ru, Au, Ag and Cu. He also notes that the platinum standard (in the UK) is 950 fineness and is finding general acceptance.  The term ‘platinum’ is deemed to include iridium.  He further notes that much of the platinum in use in jewellery is alloyed with copper to improve hardness and colour. The use of platinum in jewellery was restricted in the Second World War as it was considered a strategic industrial metal with limited availability, which led to the development of white gold alloys as an alternative for jewellery. Thus, early jewellery alloys tended to be based on the existing industrial alloys and comparatively little development of specific jewellery alloys was carried out. These tended to be 90-95% platinum alloyed with other PGMs, usually iridium. These alloys have high melting temperatures, making manufacturing of jewellery, particularly investment (lost wax) casting, difficult and challenging for the jeweller used to gold and silver.

A further issue had been the lack of accurate analysis techniques. All this meant that its acceptance as a hallmarkable jewellery metal in the UK came much later in 19753.  From this time, with its now much wider availability, platinum was promoted by the platinum producers as a rare, high value jewellery metal and platinum jewellery grew in popularity, mainly at 950 and 900 fineness qualities, in Japan, Europe and the USA, although some growth in demand began earlier in Japan in the 1960s for historical reasons linked to the ban on the import of gold until 1973.  This marketing and growth led to some alloy development such as the platinum-cobalt alloy for investment casting4 and the use of gallium additions to produce heat treatable alloys with higher strength and hardness5 as Normandeau has reported6. For example, one European platinum producer lists only 4 alloys for jewellery application in their catalogue dating to the late 1980s, all at 950 fineness, namely platinum – copper, platinum – cobalt, platinum -ruthenium and platinum-gallium-indium. The copper alloy is listed as a general purpose alloy and the cobalt alloy is listed as suitable for investment casting. Another European producer lists only 3 alloys at 950 fineness:  Pt-5Cu, Pt-5Co/Ni and Pt-5Ru.

Huckle of Johnson Matthey reported on the development of platinum alloys to overcome production problems at the 1996 Santa Fe Symposium7. He noted that platinum and its alloys had some different characteristics compared to gold and silver, notably weight, hardness and thermal conductivity and that its alloys have a high density, as well as high melting points. Its high surface resistance leads to clogging (galling) and high wear of saw blades, files and machine tools. He notes that, in Japan, Pt-Pd alloys are in common use, particularly Pt-10%Pd, whereas in Europe Pt-5% Cu is preferred but that it is not a good casting alloy whereas for casting application Pt-5%Co is finding success. In the USA, he notes Pt-10%Ir is commonly in use as an all-purpose alloy and that Pt-5%Ru is used where a hard, good machining alloy is needed. He also notes Pt-5% Co is finding growing use for casting applications in the USA.

Maerz (Platinum Guild International) also reviewed platinum jewellery alloys at the 1999 Santa Fe Symposium8 and this built on the information provided by Huckle. It sums up the alloys widely available and their application in jewellery at that time with some comment on the new alloys being introduced, Table2.

In this context, Maerz and Huckle noted that it is important to recognise the different marking standards of various countries at that time. Maerz noted that European countries generally allowed only 950 fineness alloys, with some allowing no negative tolerance (Austria, Ireland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, United Kingdom and Switzerland), some allowing a small negative tolerance (Denmark, Portugal and Italy) and others allowing iridium content to be counted as platinum within the 950 standard (Belgium, France, Italy, Greece, Netherlands and Spain). In Germany, he noted that several fineness standards and alloys were allowed, Table 1.

In the USA, he noted that the standard for jewellery to be marked as platinum was 950 fineness but that the minimum amount of platinum allowed was 500 parts per thousand with the rest of the alloy comprising 950 parts per thousand total platinum group metals (PGMs) with a zero tolerance. He also notes that 950,900 and 850 fineness standards are allowed in Japan.

With regard to actual alloy compositions, he notes that each alloy is made for specific manufacturing functions. Some alloys are preferred for tubing or machining and others for casting, for example, and there are differences in preference in different countries. Table 2 lists the alloys in common (or growing) usage around the world with their function and countries of major use.  He also lists separately a number of alloys that are specific to Japan

Maerz’s list did not record the platinum-5% copper alloy (except its use in Japan) which has been mentioned above as an alloy commonly used in Europe. Maerz does note that, in the USA, the most common alloys in use are 950 platinum with 5% cobalt or ruthenium and 900 platinum – 10% iridium alloy. However, in an updated later version of this paper9, the Pt-5Cu alloy is included.

In his book published in 1984, Savitskii10 notes only two 950 fineness alloys are in use in the old USSR – Pt-5 Ir in Russia and Pt-4.5 Pd – 0.5 Ir in East Germany (GDR).

TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF ALLOYS: 1920s to 1999

From the list of alloys summarised in Table 2, it is evident that at 950 and 900 fineness qualities, there is a broad range of alloys available to the jeweller, each suited to various manufacturing techniques. All have a good white colour, although some may benefit from rhodium plating, e.g. Pt-10% Pd alloy, to give a brighter, whiter colour. The main differences lie in their hardness (or strength) and melting ranges.

Battaini has examined the microstructure of several platinum alloys11 and notes many alloys are single phase, as one might expect from examination of their phase diagrams, particularly at 950 and 900 fineness qualities.  Some alloy systems, however, show large areas of miscibility gaps at low temperatures, for example Pt-Au and Pt-Cu systems and this raises the possibility of age-hardening alloys by heat treatment.  Platinum-5% gold is an example here, Fig 1(a), where an aged hardness of HV300 can be attained, leading to better scratch and wear resistance, but I have not observed its use in as-cast Pt-Au rings12,13, suggesting it is a treatment not in common use. Platinum- cobalt, Fig 1(b), forms an ordered intermetallic compound, Pt3Co, that could also enable some hardening at 950 fineness.  The use of gallium also allows age hardening, as is evident from the phase diagram, Fig 2, as well as lowering melting ranges and its use forms the basis of several heat treatable alloys as noted earlier.

Clearly, some alloys are quite soft (hardness lies in range HV50-100), some have a moderate hardness (HV100-150) and others are quite hard (HV 150 – 350), the higher values usually when in the age-hardened condition. In a recent study by the author of customer complaints12,13, it has been noted that use of soft alloys is a significant factor in platinum jewellery becoming deformed in shape and badly scratched when worn by consumers, particularly in as-cast gem-set rings and wedding bands.

Work around the turn of the 21st century and summarised in recent reviews14,15 has demonstrated that microalloying of pure platinum and its alloys with small additions of calcium and/or rare earth metals such as cerium, samarium and gadolinium, typically up to about 0.3%, can increase hardness substantially but such micro-alloys do not appear to have been commercialised by the jewellery industry, probably because they are not easily cast or recyclable.

The melting point of pure platinum is 1769°C, considerably higher than gold (1064°C) and silver (961°C). Its alloys tend to have similarly high melting ranges, as shown in Table 3, although the gallium-containing alloys do have a significantly reduced melting range. Thus, melting and casting platinum alloys requires good furnace equipment capable of attaining melt temperatures some 100°C above the liquidus temperature of the alloy for investment casting. Induction melting is preferred. Melting by gas torch is not easy, although a propane or hydrogen-oxygen torch can be used by bench jewellers.  However, in general, working of platinum alloys is not a problem, although polishing requires skill and effort to obtain a good quality polish. Machining of platinum also requires skill to obtain a good smooth finish, requiring special tool materials and different tool geometries16, as platinum tends to gall (adhere) on the tool. The low thermal diffusivity of platinum alloys makes welding easier, particularly laser welding18 compared to gold and silver alloys.

The major manufacturing problem has been with investment casting.  The high melting and casting temperatures require use of special phosphate bonded investment mould materials19 and the poor melt fluidity requires use of centrifugal casting machines20 to obtain good mould fill rather than the modern gravity machines commonly used for gold and silver. The new generation of tilt casting machines are also suitable. The chief problem with platinum casting is getting defect-free castings7,20,21 and there have been several investigations on the relative merits of different alloys4,22-24, looking particularly at surface quality, form-filling and gas and shrinkage porosity. The general findings from these studies show the Pt-5%Co alloy to be the best of current alloys but still not ideal.

JEWELLERY ALLOYS: 2000 to the Present

There have been several studies to develop improved platinum jewellery alloys in the last two decades. These have focussed on either stronger (harder) alloys or improved investment casting

alloys, although alloys suitable for additive manufacturing (3D printing) technology have also been of interest.

A] Stronger, harder alloys

The resistance of jewellery to abrasion and knocks – wear and scratch resistance – depends to a large extent on the hardness of the alloy. As noted earlier, a study of customer complaints showed platinum rings and wedding bands to be particularly prone to deformation of shape (misshapen) and to heavy wear (scratches and dents) during customer service (i.e. whilst being worn), when made in soft – moderately hard alloys. Hard alloys tend to be difficult to work in manufacture, especially to set gems in mounts, and so it is advantageous if an alloy is relatively soft whilst being manufactured into a piece of jewellery but can be subsequently hardened to improve its durability whilst being worn by the customer. This can be achieved by age hardening of suitable alloys after manufacture, a treatment involving the precipitation of a dense dispersion of fine particles of a second phase within the matrix grains.

For platinum, it has been noted that some current alloys are age-hardenable and alloys containing gallium have been developed specifically for this purpose. The first was the Pt-3% Ga-1.5% In alloy developed by Johnson Matthey5 and others have also followed such as the HTA alloy6 developed by Imperial Smelting and the ‘S’ alloys developed by S Kretchmer and discussed by Maerz8. Weisner, in a paper25 presented in 1999, discusses heat treatable alloys and notes earlier work at Degussa, C Hafner, Johnson Matthey (Pt-Ga-In) and S Kretchmer (Pt-Ga-Pd) to develop heat treatable 950 platinum alloys. He notes that all are ternary alloys, many with melting ranges much lower than the conventional binary alloys, suggesting they all contain gallium and/or indium additions. Such alloys are useful for their spring properties in springs and clasps, for example.

Research26 carried out at Mintek, South Africa in 2005 has examined potential platinum alloy systems with additions of 7% or less to identify suitable binary alloy systems that can be substantially age-hardened. Over 20 alloying metals were studied in the preliminary trials at levels of addition of 2 & 4 % and those showing promise were also studied at the 3% addition level. From this work, alloys with additions of Ti, Zr, Sn, Ga, Ge, Mg, In and V were studied in more depth. From this, along with consideration of other aspects, it was concluded that the best alloy was a Pt-2% Ti alloy which had as cast and annealed hardnesses sufficiently low to be easily worked and formed but with subsequent heat treatment, the hardness value could be increased by about HV90. Interestingly, there are parallels here with the development of 990Gold (Au-1%Ti) alloy27. The Mintek work does not appear to have been further developed into a commercial alloy, possibly because it does not show much advantage over the existing commercial gallium-containing alloys.

More recently, a harder general purpose alloy, TruPlat™, has been introduced to the market in the USA by Hoover & Strong. It is a 950Pt-Ru-Ga alloy that is not age-hardenable. It has a higher work hardening rate compared to 950Pt-Ru, with an annealed hardness of HV180.

B] Improved casting alloys

The motivation here is to develop alloys less prone to casting defects, particularly casting porosity.  Use of alloys with lower melting ranges to inhibit mould reaction is desirable too. Work carried out by Fryé at Techform and Klotz and co-workers at FEM 23,24 28-30, 32 on platinum cast in shell and conventional moulds has focussed on which alloys are best in terms of casting porosity formation, form-filling and surface quality and establishing the mechanical properties of cast alloys. The use of computer simulation of the casting process has also assisted in optimising process parameters in casting. Fryé has also shown the benefits of a Hot Isostatic Pressing (HIP) treatment post casting in removing porosity from castings and improving mechanical properties. What is particularly noticeable is the growing number of new platinum casting alloys that feature in these studies.  This alloy development started a little earlier in 1997.

In a paper34 presented at the 1997 Platinum Day symposium in New York, Lanam, Pozarnik and Volpe reported on a new investment casting alloy, 950 Pt-Cu-Co, developed at Engelhard, that combines the good properties of Pt-5Co and Pt-5Cu and reduces the issue of magnetism in Pt-Co alloy. It’s as-cast hardness is about HV119, somewhat lower than Pt-5Co. Porosity was still present and it had a tendency to form a surface oxide on heating.

Another alloy development was presented by Normandeau in 200035 in which he reported on a new 950 platinum Hard Casting Alloy (HCA) with an as-cast hardness of HV 160-170, much higher than Pt-5Co alloy. Little detail is given on the composition but the discussion in the paper points to it being a 950Pt-Ga-Ir alloy, since he provides data on the Ga:Ir ratio and it’s effect on hardness.

A further alloy development was presented by Grice & Cart in 200236 where the development of a 950 Pt-Au-X alloy, PlatOro™, is reported as an alternative to Pt-5Co. This has an as-cast hardness of HV125, a little softer than Pt-5Co alloy but is non-magnetic and has lower melting range of 1590° – 1629°C. This does not appear to be the Pt-Au-In alloy examined by Fryé & Klotz30 and Maerz and Laag33, Table 4, since the melting ranges and hardness values are different.  Grice has since reported37 that the PlatOro™ alloy is actually a Pt-Au-Cu alloy but is no longer commercially produced.

Fryé and Fischer-Buehner in their study reported in 201124 recognised the inadequacies of the existing commercial casting alloys and widened their search to include 3 newer versions that contained undisclosed elements, which they designated as hard alloys (HV175 or greater). These are included in the table of alloys reported in Table 4. The platinum-cobalt- X hard alloy with unknown additions appeared to show some promise. The Pt-Ru-X alloy is now known to be the Pt-Ru-Ga alloy from Hoover & Strong37 and the Pt-Co-X alloy is a Pt-Co-In alloy from Legor38 and is harder and non-magnetic compared to Pt-Co.

In 2014, Klotz et al at FEM utilised computer simulation of casting and thermodynamic calculations to optimise the process parameters of casting Pt-5Ru and Pt-5Co alloys29 and was significant in that ternary alloys of 950 platinum-cobalt-ruthenium alloys were explored. Improved form-filling and surface quality resulted from additions of Co to Pt-Ru alloys, the optimum amount depending on casting technique – centrifugal or tilt casting.

 

Maerz and Laag33 studied six alloys in their 2016 study, Table 4, which used tilt casting (as opposed to centrifugal casting) in their trials. Two contained gallium or indium and these alloys showed higher as-cast hardness and were rated high in terms of castability. Each alloy had different strengths and weaknesses and the authors concluded that no alloy was perfect but that progress was being made. It is noted that C Hafner patented an alloy, 950 Pt-Au-In in 2013, with the use of Ir or Ru as grain refiners39, which is probably the alloy referred to in Table 4

The largest range of alloys was studied by Fryé and Klotz, Table 4, who also measured mechanical properties and wear resistance of castings30. They warned against use of soft alloys in cast jewellery and noted pronounced micro-segregation in Ga- and In-containing alloys which increased micro shrinkage porosity. Hot isostatic pressing treatment (HIPing) after casting eliminated porosity and restored ductility. They also noted wear was related to hardness, harder alloys wearing less.

It is clear from the foregoing that no new alloy completely met the desired casting requirements, although a database of mechanical properties of many of the casting alloys was established by Klotz and Fryé for alloys in the as-cast and in the HIPed condition32. This database has data on 13 compositions at 950 fineness and 2 at 900 fineness. As well as the conventional compositions described in Tables 2 and 4, it also includes some newer ternary/quaternary compositions, as shown in Table 5, which only lists the hardness values; perhaps, it also clarifies some of the unknown compositions documented in Table 4.

A more fundamental approach to improved casting alloy design39 has been undertaken recently by Professor Glatzel and his co-workers at the University of Bayreuth and Richemont International.  They looked to develop an improved casting alloy of 950 fineness with the following requirements:

  • Low casting temperature
  • Small melting range
  • Microstructure that is homogenous, fine-grained (100 – 150 µm) and with low porosity
  • Hardness in range Hv 155-170 for wear resistance and good ductility (>30%)
  • Good reflectance with a bright surface
  • Alloying elements that are biocompatible and recyclable

Their benchmark alloy was the 95Pt-1.8Cu-2.9Ga which is a recent alloy development (see Tables 4 & 5). Excluding allergenic, radioactive and toxic elements, 25 possible alloying elements were selected and ranked according to a Suitability Index which comprised 4 characteristics: maximum solubility in platinum (Cmax), hardness Index (Hi), melting interval index (Mii) and liquidus temperature change index (Tlci). From these, a first iteration of 5 alloys were selected for testing and following this, a second set of 5 alloys were selected for testing. Casting was performed in a tilt casting machine. These alloys contained up to 5 alloying elements from a list including Al, Au, Cu, Cr, Fe, Ir, Mn, Pd, Rh and V. From these 10 alloys, two in the second iteration were found to be the most promising, Table 6. It is very evident that these compositions are radically different from those listed in Tables 4 and 5.  They have a hardness of HV 164 (A2) & 165 (B2) respectively compared to HV 225 for the benchmark Pt-Cu-Ga alloy. It will be interesting to see if these or similar alloys are developed to commercial status and find a niche amongst the current alloys. With the base metal alloying elements including iron and manganese, it is possible there may be tarnishing issues with such alloys, if we compare the experiences in developing alternative white gold compositions.

C] Alloys for Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing)

The development of Additive Manufacturing (3D printing) of jewellery has attracted much interest in the industry in recent years and considerable R & D has been carried out on developing machine technology, build techniques and suitable alloys. The technology involves selective laser melting (SLM) of successive layers of alloy powders, and it has become evident that such powders need to be tailored in composition to suit the process. Alloying additions of high vapour pressure metals are not desirable, for example.  In the field of carat golds, it is also important to reduce reflectivity and thermal conductivity/diffusivity to better absorb energy and inhibit heat loss through the metal, thus enhancing consolidation of the powders during laser melting. Examples of modifying carat gold alloy compositions have been discussed40.  Regarding platinum alloys, these tend to have considerably lower thermal conductivities as has been discussed by Wright in terms of laser welding18 and Zito in terms of 3D printing of jewellery41 Work at Progold Spa on laser selective melting of 950 fineness platinum jewellery has been reported by Zito and his co-workers41-44. In his 2014 paper41, Zito used an unspecified 950 Pt alloy powder whilst in his 2015 paper43, Zito used a 950 platinum alloy powder ‘with alloying additions slightly different from the cobalt-containing alloy used in the preceding work’ but gives no further details other than to say it was not doped with semiconductor elements to reduce thermal conductivity (as was done with the carat gold alloys in his work). In the 2018 paper, in which jewellery made by SLM is compared to the same pieces made by investment casting44, Zito notes the items produced by casting and by SLM were made in the same 950 Pt-Cu-Ga-In alloy but gives no details on actual composition. This is different from the casting alloys discussed in the earlier section, in that it contains indium as well as copper and gallium.

Thus, it appears that there is little need to develop special alloy compositions suited to 3D printing technology; the conventional alloys are acceptable and do not appear to pose any major problems.

D] Other Alloys

To conclude this paper, I note there are other recent alloy developments that appear in the patent and other literature that do not fit into the 3 preceding categories. For example, European Patent applications from Heimerle and Meule45 describe alloys that have optimised processing properties at 950 and lower finenesses based on Pt-W-Cu –(Ru/Rh/Ir) and described as having high hardness and abrasion resistance. The Ru/Rh/Ir additions act as grain refiners.

Another patent from the watchmaker, Omega SA46, concerns 950 platinum alloys that are cobalt- and nickel-free, based on Pt-Ir-Au-Ge- (Ru/Rh/ Pd/Sn/Ga/Re) that have mechanical properties that meet the criteria for watchmaking whilst having the colour and luminosity of Pt-Ir alloys.

 

CONCLUSIONS

  1. There has been an evolution of – and growth in – platinum alloy compositions for jewellery application since the 1920s, with a focus on developing alloys suited to the manufacturing technologies in current use. Until the advent of the 21st century, most platinum alloys for jewellery were based on the existing industrial alloys with the platinum -iridium alloys favoured in the early part of the 20th century.
  2. There is now a wide range of alloys available at 950 and 900 fineness levels with a spectrum of properties. Of note has been the development of heat treatable alloys containing gallium.
  3. The investment casting of platinum alloys remains a major issue in terms of surface quality and defect formation, particularly gas and shrinkage porosity. The use of hot isostatic pressing post casting removes porosity and improves mechanical properties. As yet, there is no ideal casting alloy to replace the universally accepted Pt-5Co alloy..
  4. There has been a major evolution in platinum alloys, particularly for investment (lost wax) casting application, in the last two decades (21st century). A recent substantial, structured alloy development approach has produced some significantly different casting alloys containing up to 5 alloying metals It remains to be seen if these prove to be superior.
  5. The new manufacturing technology of additive manufacturing (3D printing) does not appear to require special alloy compositions.

 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to thank Massimo Poliero and his staff at Legor Srl for inviting me to present at the Jewellery Technology Forum once again.  It is always a pleasure to present at this important international technology conference.

Thanks are also due to many friends and companies in the industry for information and allowing use of pictures and tables; these include Johnson Matthey, Legor,FEM, Progold, Platinum Guild International, Hoover and Strong and Techform.

 

REFERENCES

  1. D McDonald & L B Hunt, “A History of Platinum and its allied metals”, 1982, Johnson Matthey, Chapter 1. ISBN 0 905118 83 9
  2. E A Smith, “Working in Precious Metals”, 1933. Reprinted 1978, N.A.G. Press Ltd. Chapter 15. ISBN 7198 0032 3
  3. J S Forbes, “Hallmark – A history of the London Assay Office”, 1998, Unicorn Press/The Goldsmiths’ Company, Chapter 12. ISBN 0 906290 26 0
  4. G Ainsley, A A Bourne & R W E Rushforth, “Platinum Investment Casting Alloys”, Platinum Metals Review, 1978, vol 22(3), 78-87
  5. A A Bourne and A Knapton, US patent US4165983A, 1979/ UK patent GB58258A, 1981
  6. G Normandeau & D Euno, “Understanding Heat Treatable Platinum Alloys”, 1999, Santa Fe Symposium, ed D Schneller, Met-Chem Research Inc, 73-103. See also ibid,1998, Platinum Day symposium, Platinum Guild International, vol 5, 35-41
  7. J Huckle, “The Development of Platinum Alloys to overcome Production Problems”, 1996, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, ed D Schneller, Met-Chem Research Inc, 301-325. See also: J Huckle, “Choosing platinum alloys to maximise production efficiency”, Platinum Day symposium, 1995, Platinum Guild International, vol 1, 2-6,
  8. J Maerz, “Platinum Alloy Applications for Jewelry”, 1999, Proc. Santa Fe Symposium, ed D Schneller, Met-Chem Research Inc, 55-71 ,
  9. Maerz, “Platinum Alloys – Features and Benefits”,2004, Platinum Guild international. Download from the Ganoksin website: www.ganoksin.com/article/platinumalloys-features-benefits )
  10. E M Savitskii, “Handbook of Precious Metals”, English edition ed. A Prince, 1989, Hemisphere Publishing Corp., Chapter 6. ISBN0 89116 709 9
  11. P Battaini, “Metallography of Platinum and Platinum Alloys”, 2010, Proc. Santa Fe Symposium, ed E Bell, Met-Chem Research Inc, 27-49. Also: ibid, Platinum Metals Review, 2011, vol 55(2),74-83
  12. C W Corti, “Jewellery – Is it fit for Purpose?: An Analysis based on examination of customer complaints”, Presented at the Jewellery Technology Forum, Held at Vicenza, Italy, January 2018 (download from Legor/JTF website)
  13. C W Corti, “Jewelry – Is it fit for purpose? An analysis based on customer complaints”, 2018, Proc. Santa Fe Symposium, Ed E Bell, Met-Chem Research Inc, p163-175
  14. C W Corti, “Microalloying of High Carat Gold, Platinum and Silver”,, presented at the Jewellery Technology Forum, Vicenza, Italy, 17-18th June 2005. Publ. in conference proceedings.
  15. C W Corti, “Jewellery Alloys – Past, Present and Future”, Keynote lecture presented at the 1st Jewellery Materials Congress, Goldsmiths Hall, London, July 2019 (download from website https://www.assayofficelondon.co.uk/events/the-goldsmiths-company-jewellery-materials-congress .
  16. R W E Rushforth, “Machining Properties of Platinum”, Platinum Metals Review, 1978, vol 22 (1), p2-12
  17. C W Corti, “Basic Metallurgy of the Precious Metals – Part 1”, 2017, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, Ed E Bell, Met-Chem Research Inc, 25-61
  18. J C Wright, “Laser-welding platinum jewellery”, 2001, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, ed E bell, Met-Chem Research Inc, p455-468. See also J C Wright, “Jewellery-related properties of platinum”, Platinum Metals Review, 2002, vol 46(2) 66-72
  19. P J Horton, “Investment Powder Technology – The Present and the Future”, 2001, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, Ed. E Bell, Met-Chem Research Inc, 213-239
  20. J Maerz, “Platinum Casting Tree Design”, 2007, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, Ed E Bell, Met-Chem Research Inc, 305-322
  21. R Atkin, “Trouble Shooting Platinum Casting Defects and Difficulties”, 1996, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, Ed D Schneller, Met-Chem Research Inc, 327-337.
  22. P Lester, S Taylor & R Süss, “The Effect of different investment powders and flask temperatures on the casting of platinum alloys”, 2002, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, Ed E Bell, Met-Chem Research Inc, 321-334.
  23. U Klotz & T Drago, “The role of process parameters in Platinum Casting”, 2010, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, ed E Bell, Met-Chem research Inc, 287-325 and references therein. Also, ibid, Platinum Metals Review, 2011, vol 55(1), 20-27
  24. T Fryé & J Fischer-Buehner, “Platinum alloys in the 21st Century: A Comparative Study”, 2011, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, Ed E Bell, Met-Chem Research Inc, 210-229 and references therein. Also ibid, Platinum Metals Review, 2012, vol 56(3),155-171. An updated version also presented at the Jewellery Materials Congress, London, July 2019 (download from https://www.assayofficelondon.co.uk/events/the-goldsmiths-company-jewellery-materials-congress )
  25. K Weisner, “Heat treatable platinum for jewelry”, 1999, Platinum Day symposium, Platinum Guild International, vol 6, 25-30
  26. T Biggs, S Taylor & E van de Lingen, “The hardening of platinum alloys for potential jewellery application”, Platinum Metals Review, 2005, vol 49(1), 2-15.
  27. C W Corti, “Metallurgy of Microalloyed 24 carat Golds”, 1999, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, Ed E Bell, Met-Chem Research Inc, p379-402; also ibid, Gold Bulletin, vol 32(2), 39-47
  28. T Fryé, J T Strauss, J Fischer-Buehner, U Klotz, “The effects of Hot Isostatic Pressing of platinum alloy castings on mechanical properties and microstructure”, 2014, Proc. Santa Fe Symposium, Ed E Bell & J Haldeman, Met-Chem Research Inc, 189-209
  29. U Klotz, T Heiss, D Tilberto & F Held, “Platinum investment casting: Materials properties, casting simulation and optimum process parameters”, presented at Santa Fe Symposium, 2014 but published in Proc Santa Fe Symposium, 2015, ed E Bell et al, Met-Chem Research Inc, p143-180. Also, ibid, Johnson Matthey Technology Review, 2015, vol 59(2), 95-108 & 129-138
  30. T Fryé & U Klotz, “Mechanical properties and wear resistance of platinum jewelry casting alloys: A comparative study”, 2018, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, ed E Bell et al, Met-Chem Research Inc, 235-273.
  31. T Laag & H-G Schenzel, C Hafner GmbH, German patent application DE10212007299A1, 17.10.2013,
  32. U Klotz & T Fryé, “Mechanical properties of platinum jewellery casting alloys”, 2019, Johnson Matthey Technology Review, vol 63(2), 89-99
  33. J Maerz & T Laag, “Platinum Alloys, Features and benefits: comparing six platinum alloys”, 2016, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, ed E Bell et al, Met-Chem Research Inc, 335-353
  34. R Lanam, F Pozarnik, T Volpe, “Platinum alloy characteristics: A comparison of existing platinum casting alloys with Pt-Cu-Co”, 1997, Platinum Day symposium, Platinum Guild International, vol 3, 2-12
  35. G Normandeau & D Ueno,”Platinum alloy design for the investment casting process”, 2000, Platinum Day symposium, Platinum Guild International,, vol 8, 41-49
  36. S Grice & C Cart, “PlatOro™: The perfect marriage”, 2002, Platinum Day symposium, Platinum Guild International, vol 10, 4-7
  37. S Grice, Private communication, June 2021
  38. R Bertoncello & J Fischer-Bühner, Legor patent application ITM120110750A1, 2011 “Platinum-cobalt alloys with improved hardness”.
  39. T Trosch, F Lalire, S Pommier, R Völkl, U Glatzel, “Optimisation of a jewellery platinum alloy for precision casting: Evaluation of mechanical, microstructural and optical properties”, 2018, Johnson Matthey Technology Review, vol 62(4),364-382.
  40. U Klotz, D Tilberto & F Held, “Additive manufacturing of 18 karat yellow gold alloys”, 2016, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, ed. E Bell et al, Met-Chem Research Inc, 255-272
  41. D Zito, A Carlotto, P Sbornicchia et al, “Optimisation of SLM technology main parameters in the prodiction of gold and platinum jewellery”, 2014, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, ed E bell & J Haldeman, Met-Chem Research Inc, 439-469
  42. D Zito, V Allodi,, P Sbornicchia & S Rappo, “Why should we direct 3D print jewelry? A comparison between two thoughts: Today and tomorrow”, 2017, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, ed E Bell et al, Met-Chem Research Inc, 515-556
  43. D Zito, A Carlotto, A Loggi, P Sbornicchia, D Bruttomesso & S Rappo, “Definition and solidity of gold and platinum jewlry produced using selective laser melting (SLM™) technology, 2015, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, ed E Bell et al, Met-Chem Research Inc, 455-491
  44. D Zito, “Potential and innovation of the selective laser melting technique in platinum jewelry”, 2018, Proc Santa Fe Symposium, ed E Bell et al, Met-Chem Research Inc, 625-684
  45. G Steiner, “Platinum Alloy for Jewelry”, European patents EP 2260116B1, 2014 and EP 209994181, 2007, Heimerle & Meule GmbH,
  46. E Leoni et al, “Platinum alloy” European Patent EP3502286 (A1), 2019, Omega SA.

 

Note: Papers published in Platinum Metals Review/Johnson Matthey Technology Review can be downloaded free from the archive at https://www.technology.matthey.com/ . Many papers from the various Santa Fe Symposia can be downloaded free from the Santa Fe Symposium website archive at www.santafesymposium.org . Papers from Gold Bulletin can be downloaded from the Springer/Gold Bulletin website at https://link.springer.com/journal/13404/volumes-and-issues

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Progress in titanium investment casting

Progress in titanium investment casting

a speech by Florian Bulling

Introduction

Titanium alloys are known for their high mechanical strength, low density and high corrosion resistance. Therefore, their application is mainly in the field of aerospace industry, but also in medicine as implant material. The alloy Ti-6Al-4V, also known as Grade 5 titanium is the most widely used alloy. Other titanium-based alloys are the intermetallic compounds NiTi, known as Nitinol®, which is used for its superplasticity as stent material or as actuator. Another important alloy is the intermetallic compound TiAl, which is used in aircraft turbine engines.

The excellent and outstanding properties of these alloys are opposed by the difficulties in manufacturing titanium alloys. The high chemical reactivity of titanium melts allows only cold-walled crucible melting techniques such as vacuum arc melting.

Induction melting and casting was so far compromised by crucible reactions [1-4]. A very recent review on crucibles for induction melting of titanium alloys can be found in [4]. Conventional crucible materials such as alumina or quartz are not suitable due to the decomposition of the ceramic in contact with the titanium melt. Even high stability refractories such as zirconia or yttria, which are used as crucible coatings, are not stable enough [3].

A new ceramic material based on calcium zirconate (CaZrO3) [1, 5-7] was recently introduced. Calcium zirconate is a synthetic ceramic material that is produced by melting a stoichiometric mixture of calcia and zirconia in an arc furnace (fused CaZrO3). Alternatively, it can be produced by in-situ reactive sintering. Calcium zirconate shows very promising properties as crucible as well as shell mold material. The present paper provides a comparison of a standard investment with yttria front coat compared to the new, silica-free shell mold and crucibles based on calcium zirconate.

Experimental

Crucibles

The production of the crucibles was in line with the procedure described by Schafföner et al. [8]. The crucibles were manufactured by cold isostatic pressing with two types of molding material consisting of pure fused CaZrO3 (Type A) or CaZrO3 with amounts of ZrO2 and CaO3 (Type D) for an in situ reaction [9]. A mandrel of steel was used to obtain the inner shape of the crucible. After decompressing and drying of the green ceramic crucibles they were fired at 1650°C for 6 h. Typical crucibles are shown in Figure 1 (left).

To produce crucibles for centrifugal casting a CaZrO3 slurry was used to prepare a functional coating on a commercial crucible of aluminum titanate (Porzellanfabrik Hermsdorf, Germany). The coating was fired at 1450°C to avoid cracks through different thermal expansion coefficients between the stucco and the coating of the crucible. Typical crucibles are shown in Figure 1 (right).

Shell molds

The shell molds were processed from standard wax trees according to the procedure described in [1]. The wax parts and the tree setup for centrifugal casting shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. At wax trees for tilt casting the parts were mounted at two levels of four parts each (Figure 5).

Wax trees were dipped into a calcium zirconate slurry followed by the application of calcium zirconate stucco. Six layers were applied, three fine grained and 3 coarse grained. The dipping was practiced in 2 layers per day. Each layer was dried for at least 5 h before the following layer was applied. Careful drying of the final shells was performed under controlled atmosphere in a climatic chamber at 60% humidity, at 30°C and with an air movement of 1.3 m/s for seven days. After drying, the shells were fired at 1500°C for 4 h. Before casting the shells were preheated to casting temperature. A series of shell molds for centrifugal and tilt casting is shown in Figure 4.

For comparison a commercial silica-bonded shell system, which is commercially available from Ransom&Randolph, Dentsply, USA was used. The wax parts were coated with a front coat of yttria.

Casting trials

Before casting, the crucibles were preheated in a furnace at about 200°C in order to evaporate possible humidity absorbed in the crucible. This procedure was applied to avoid cracking of the crucibles in the casting machine due to water evaporation.

For casting trials a tilt casting machine (VTC200VTi, Indutherm, Germany) and a centrifugal casting machine (TCE10, Topcast, Italy) were used. The tilt-casting machine was equipped with two rotary vane pumps connected in series and achieved a pressure of about 8×10-3 mbar and an oxygen partial pressure of 10‑4 mbar immediately before casting. Such vacuum level was necessary in order to avoid reactions of the titanium melt with the gas atmosphere. The casting chamber was back-filled with argon to atmospheric pressure. A batch size of up to 300 g was used for casting. The series of casting trials was carried out with the crucibles type A and D.

The centrifugal casting machine had a maximum power of 10 kW. By the fact that this machine was not especially designed for casting titanium only a low vacuum of 40 mbar was achieved, which meant that a significantly higher oxygen partial pressure remained during casting. This caused a stronger reaction of the titanium melt due to residual oxygen in the casting atmosphere. Before casting, the casting chamber was refilled with argon to a pressure of 700 mbar. With the centrifugal machine laboratory-produced crucibles of Al2TiO5 with a CaZrO3 coating and commercial crucibles with modified yttria coating were tested. The maximum batch size was 100 g titanium.

During inductive heating, the metal temperature was monitored using a thermal imaging camera (Pyroview 640N, DIAS, Germany). The camera allowed an integral determination of the temperature on the surface of the melt and the subsequent evaluation of the melting process. To investigate the influence of pre-casting evacuation, overheating and dwell time on the reaction between the titanium melt and the crucibles, different parameters were applied. The pre-cast evacuation was only necessary with the tilt-casting machine to achieve good form filling. Depending on the pumping duration, a low vacuum was obtained.

Starting with a low heating power, the metal charge was heated close to melting temperature. The slow heating led to a homogeneous temperature of the rod and thus kept the time of liquid phase in crucible (exposition time) short. As determined in several casting trials, the reactivity of the titanium melt was much higher than in the solid state. When the liquidus temperature was reached, the power was increased to melt the whole material and to overheat it before casting. The dwell time means the time while all of the material was liquid. During the dwell time, the melt was heated until the desired temperature was reached. After the dwell time the casting was manually triggered. In case of the tilt-casting machine, the tilt speed was set up to 47°/s until the final angle of 90° was reached to achieve a fast filling and a low heat loss.

Microstructure, hardness and composition measurement

After casting metallographic samples were prepared to investigate the interaction of alloy and shell mold. This employed electron scanning microscopy (Zeiss, Gemini SEM 300) and optical microscopy (Zeiss, Imager Z2M).

The chemical composition was analyzed in the center of sample cross sections by glow discharge optical emission spectroscopy (GDOES) (Spectruma, GDA750) and by EDS. In addition, X-ray diffraction (XRD) was carried out to examine the phase composition of the crucibles before and after the casting process. To detect possible cracks and defects, the crucibles were investigated by X-ray computed tomography (XCT).

 

 

Results and discussion

After casting and quenching, the different shell systems showed significantly different surface appearance (Figure 5). The trees with the yttria modified R&R shell showed large residues of the shell material sticking on the surface. Due to their hardness, it was impossible to remove them by water jetting. Instead, sand blasting was required to remove the remains of the shell. The new, CaZrO3-based shell showed a golden colored metal surface with few shell residues on the surface. This is an indication of a very limited reaction of the melt with the new, CaZrO3-based shell material as examined in [10].

The investigation by SEM showed the different nature of reaction of the two shell systems (Figure 6 and Figure 7). At the bottom of the pictures, the typical so-called Widmannstätten structure of the titanium alloy is visible. It consists of two phases (a, dark, and b, bright). The a-phase and the b-phase have different crystal structure that are hexagonal close packed and body centered cubic, respectively [11].

Due to the reaction with the melt the refractory from the shell decomposes [12]. Oxygen is dissolved in the alloy, which stabilizes the a-phase. Therefore, a layer of a-phase is formed at the metal surface in contact to the shell, the so-called a-case. Such a-case was found for the modified R&R shell (Figure 6, left). The a-case forms a very hard and brittle surface layer, which can be removed only with great difficulty.

The residues of the shell were surrounded by metal, which explains the difficulty in the removal of shell residues. The yttria front layer that was used to limit shell reactions was not effective. Similar effects were examined with yttria-coated crucibles. The yttria layer was dissolved into the titanium melt. During cooling yttria re-precipitated at the grain boundaries (Figure 6, right). Such ceramic inclusions resulted in embrittlement.

The calcium zirconate shell also showed certain reaction with the titanium alloy (Figure 7). However, such reaction was much weaker compared to the modified R&R shell. The porous shell was not infiltrated by the melt. For this reason, it could be removed much more easily compared to the modified R&R shell. At the interface of metal and shell, the calcium zirconate started to be dissolved by the melt.

The reaction of calcium zirconate with the melt follows a certain reaction scheme [13]. Calcium zirconate decomposes into zirconia and calcia. Both refractories further decompose to their chemical elements. Zirconium and oxygen dissolve in the titanium melt. Calcium is not soluble in titanium and evaporates. As a result, the content of zirconium and oxygen are increased. The zirconium content in the surface layer of the titanium part appears brighter in the backscattered electron image (Figure 7, indicated by arrows). However, the dissolution of oxygen and zirconium did not result in the formation of a hard a-case.

The hardness and the oxygen content in cast 10mm rods were investigated by hardness and composition profiles (Figure 8). The interface of alloy and shell is defined by the position zero. Positive and negative distance values are in the metal and in the shell, respectively. Figure 8 shows results for different combinations of crucible and shell mold. Samples melted in a copper crucible (“Cu”) were prepared by electric arc melting. Oxygen content and sample hardness were clearly correlated: The higher the oxygen content, the higher was the hardness. The samples from the yttria modified R&R shell (green and black curve) exhibited higher surface hardness and oxygen level compared to those from the calcium zirconate shell (red and blue curve). For both shells the bulk hardness was reached at a depth above 300-400µm.

The melt temperature and duration play an important role for the bulk hardness of the alloy. In order to compare different combinations of melting temperature and duration a parameter was introduced, which is based on the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) [14]. This parameter is originally used to compare diffusion controlled processes in high temperature deformation (creep). The LMP is calculated from the temperature and the logarithm of melting duration. Figure 9 shows a plot of the bulk chemical composition and the hardness over the LMP value.

It appears that oxygen and zirconium content as well as the hardness remain constant up to an LMP value of 47. The oxygen level was between the values of the feedstock and the limit given by the ASTM standard B367-09. The ASTM standard specifies no special value for the zirconium content, but a maximum concentration of 0.1 % for all other elements. Even this limit could be met with appropriate casting parameters. The hardness of the as-cast material was ca. 360 HV1, which was higher than the hardness of the feedstock (312 HV1). Such hardness increase was due to the different microstructure of as-cast material and feedstock.

At LMP values > 47 the concentrations of oxygen and zirconium increased strongly, as well as the hardness. Therefore, both temperature and melting duration have to be controlled carefully to avoid contamination of the melt. The melting range of grade 5 titanium is 1605-1660°C. A certain superheating of at least 50 K will be required to achieve sufficient form filling. The maximum LMP value of 47 can be converted into a maximum holding time of the melt in the crucible at a certain temperature. For instance the LMP = 47 equals to a holding time of 440s at 1700°C, 72s at 1750°C and only 13s at 1800°C. This indicates the high sensitivity of the reaction to uncontrolled overheating. Therefore, we have chosen to use a slow heating process that provides a homogeneous melting of the feedstock.


Besides jewelry items, the process and materials were also tested for industrial parts such as turbine wheels or small parts of glasses frames. Figure 10 shows a turbine wheel directly after casting without further surface treatment. The defect visible on the part on the left side was already present on the wax part. The feasibility of such cast parts in grade 5 titanium proves the suitability of the new shell mold for successful investment casting of titanium parts.

Summary and Outlook

A new shell mold and crucible material based on calcium zirconate was successfully tested for the investment casting of grade 5 titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V). In comparison to a commercial shell with yttria front coat, the new shell resulted in less oxygen contamination, less surface hardening and prevented the formation of an a-case. However, the control of the melt temperature was crucial to keep the oxygen level low. Excessive superheating and prolonged melting durations resulted in significant oxygen contamination and hardness increase. Ideally, the melt temperature should not exceed 1700°C to avoid contamination.

Further work will focus on the heat treatment of as-cast parts and the determination of mechanical properties. Different titanium alloys and other high melting and highly reactive alloys such as CoCr, Pt and Zr will be tested with the new calcium zirconate crucible and shell molds.

Acknowledgements

This IGF Project was supported via AiF No. 18293BG within the program for promoting the Industrial Collective Research (IGF) of the German Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), based on a decision of the German Bundestag.

References

  1. Klotz, U.E., et al., Investment casting of titanium alloys with calcium zirconate moulds and crucibles. The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2019. 103(1): p. 343-353.
  2. Nastac, L., et al., Advances in investment casting of Ti–6Al–4V alloy: a review. International Journal of Cast Metals Research, 2006. 19(2): p. 73-93.
  3. Klotz, U.E. and T. Heiss, Evaluation of crucible and investment materials for lost wax investment casting of Ti and NiTi alloys. International Journal of Cast Metals Research, 2014. 27(6): p. 341-348.
  4. Fashu, S., et al., A review on crucibles for induction melting of titanium alloys. Materials and Design, 2020. 186: p. 108295.
  5. Freitag, L., et al., Silica-free investment casting molds based on calcium zirconate. Ceramics International, 2017. 43(9): p. 6807-6814.
  6. Schafföner, S., et al., Advanced refractories for titanium metallurgy based on calcium zirconate with improved thermomechanical properties. Journal of the European Ceramic Society, 2019. 39(14): p. 4394-4403.
  7. Freitag, L., et al., Improved Precision Casting of Titanium Alloys Using Calcium Zirconate Moulds. refractories WORLDFORUM, 2019. 11(2): p. 76-82.
  8. Schafföner, S., et al., Fused calcium zirconate for refractory applications. Journal of the European Ceramic Society, 2013. 33(15-16): p. 3411-3418.
  9. Schafföner, S., et al., Influence of in situ phase formation on properties of calcium zirconate refractories. Journal of the European Ceramic Society, 2017. 37(1): p. 305-313.
  10. Bulling, F., Einfluss der Gießparameter auf die Eigenschaften von Feingussteilen aus Titanlegierungen, 2017, Hochschule Aalen: Schwäbisch Gmünd.
  11. Pederson, R., Microstructure and Phase transformation of Ti-6Al-4V, 2002, Luleå tekniska universitet.
  12. Frye, H., D.H. Sturgis, and M. Yasrebi, Basic Ceramic Considerations for the Lost Wax Processing of High Melting Alloys, in The Santa Fe Symposium, E. Bell, Editor 2000: ABQ, NM, USA.
  13. Bulling, F., et al. Investment casting of high reactive and high melting metals using calcium zirconate crucibles. in Proceedings of the liquid metal processing casting conference 2019. 2019. TMS.
  14. Larson, F. and M. J., Time-Temperature Relationship for Rupture and Creep Stresses. Transaction of the ASME, 1952. 74: p. 765-771.

 

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Geometry driven parameters and relevance of open material system for jewelry additive manufacturing

Geometry driven parameters and relevance of open material system for jewelry additive manufacturing.

a speech by Marco Giuseppe Andreetta

Sisma, a growth journey of more than sixty years

More than 40 years in jewellery making machines, more than 60 years in micromechanics

More than 20 years in laser manufacturing and laser based process expertise

More than 10 years in manufacturing of metal 3D printing machines designed for small and complex geometries

Open systems and relevance for jewellery additive manufacturing

Open systems are a value for the jewellery manufacturer, enabling:

  • freedom of choice

→ potentially every powder manufacturer could be validated

  • possibility to adapt the building parameters to each geometry

→ different geometries have different requirements. In order to exploit all the benefits of additive manufacturing it is necessary to fine tune the building strategy

A harmonized approach to precious metal 3D printing

A harmonized approach to precious metal 3D printing:

to establish a SISTEMIC COMPENTENCE

– Density > 99,9%

– Digital microstructure

– Compliance with jewellery quality standards

– Building strategies adapted to the post processing


Compatibility with material manufacturers of precious metals

Having open parameters grants compatibility with multiple precious metal material supplier, leaving the customer free to evaluate existing suppliers or propose a new one for validation.

Currently available alloys for Jewelry additive manufacturing: 

Precious metals:

Au750 White Gold

Au750 Yellow Gold

Au750 Red Gold

Ag925

Non precious metals:

Bronze9010

Stainless Steel

Titanium alloys

Partnership with Application Specialists:

The application specialist works alongside with the final customer with the machine manufacturer support.

We chose to partner with one application experts for each strategic jewellery market, in order to accomodate requests from all over the world.





Advanced parameters:

Laser  (power, scanning speed)

Hatching (hatching distance, hatching strategies, order)

Contours (number, distance)

Beam spot (diameter, compensation) 

Layer thickness (multiple layer thickness)

Protective Gas (speed, gas mixture choice)

Powders (grain size, chemical composition)

Upskin & Downskin

Advanced parameters: before and after the building process

Geometry driven parameters

Small dimension part

  • Part description: thin wall section (0.7mm)
  • Validation criteria: surface quality, complex geometries compliance

 

  • Small beam spot diameter
  • Material choice with smaller than usual grain size
  • Easy to remove support, only supportive function

Massive part

  • Part description: wall thickness changes across the part
  • Validation criteria: mechanical properties, density and geometry compliance, build speed

 

  • Medium or variable beam spot
  • Supports: heat exchange, supporting and anchoring function
  • Benefits from pre-heating
  • Skin/core laser parameters to increase build speed

Beam spot diameter: small beam spot for special applications

“Pixel” technical sample – Bronze 90-10

▪ No correlation with conventional technologies

▪ The part is made of interconnected pieces

▪ The complete part is made in a single Ø100mm print job

▪ Combination off additive manufacturing, polishing and surface treatment (gold plating)

 

▪ Small beam spot parameter choice (30µm) to make the geometry possible

▪ Parameter fine tuning of the beam compensation (on the file preparation) rather than tweaking the CAD geometry

Titanium: a growing trend in jewellery

Titanium popularity is increasing in the jewellery market.

Once considered a minor metal relegated to aviation and medical industry, is now gaining importance for many reasons:

– weights a quarter of gold → bigger items are worn without discomfort

– anti-allergenic (e.g. in watchmaking Titanium can be used by whom is allergic to Nickel contained in 904L)

– can be processed to show a wide range of bold colours

 

Titanium: traditional technologies drawbacks

Titanium has its drawbacks for traditional machining:

Traditional processing of Titanium is costly.

Dedicated machinery is used to safely and effectively work with this alloy.

Machining Titanium usually requires:

– high torque machine and low speeds, to reduce the heat generation

– higher speeds usually generate unwanted hardening of the metal, increasing tool wear

Casting Titanium is a difficult task as well.

Titanium: advantages of 3D printing

Titanium can be 3D printed easily and safely on a well tuned machine.

Indeed, is one of the easiest material to be 3D printed:

– highly self supporting → a small amount of supports leads to increased geometry freedom and reduction of post processing

– relatively low elastic modulus → controlled distorsion during 3D printing

And, moreover, a wide range of alloys are already developed for other demanding markets.

Commonly Available Titanium alloys

Ti6Al4V – gr.23 ELI

Industry standard for aerospace and medical applications. More than 350 HV5

Ti gr.1, Ti gr.2

This two Titanium grades shares corrosion resistance, weldability, and high ductility. Almost pure Titanium, other elements are less than 0,2%. Roughly 225 HV5

Ti6Al4V – gr.5

Widely available on the market, it shares the chemical composition of gr.23 but with higher amount of Oxygen.

Serial production of hollow Titanium chain. Titanium itself helps stacking easily complex geometry with small amout of supports.

Source: A 3D-Printed Ultra-Low Young’s Modulus β-Ti Alloy for Biomedical Applications by Massimo Pellizzari, Alireza Jam, Matilde Tschon, Milena Fini, Carlo Lora and Matteo Benedetti https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/13/12/2792

New Titanium alloy being researched

Requirements:

Lower elastic modulus

Great fatigue resistance

Optimal corrosion resistance

Optimal biocompatibility (alloy without Vanadium)

New Titanium alloy being researched

Findings:

Lower elastic modulus was also useful to control the deformations during the printing process

–> the  new material  has even higher buildability characteristics if compared with conventional Ti6Al4V

It may be possible to completely avoid the heat treatment or at least switch to a lower temperature aging and stress relieving process

–> Possibility of using cheaper furnaces and avoid vacuum heat treatment for Titanium

New Titanium alloy being researched

Flexible Titanium applications in the luxury market



Current developments in Sisma :

  • Development of new alloys
  • Fine tuning of existing alloys for the LMF process
  • Fine tuning of the whole process (powders, LMF, heat treatment, inert gas mixture choice) to satisfy specific market requests.

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The power of gold industry to generate positive social and environmental impact in mineral supply chain

The power of gold industry to generate positive social and environmental impact in mineral supply chain

a speech by Marco Marcin Piersiak

Abstarct

CSR. Sustainability. Responsible sourcing. Conflict free. These are key words that have become increasingly important in the gold industry in recent years.
Awareness on the issues in gold mining, such as the financing of conflict, human rights abuses, unsafe labor conditions, environmental destruction and negative social impacts, has increased. This requires the industry to take a closer look at its gold supply chains and promote solutions that provide access to conflict-free, legal or responsible gold in order to minimize the reputational risks for the sector.
Additionally, consumers are increasingly concerned about the origin of the products they buy and demand improved conditions throughout the supply chain of consumer goods. This is being reflected in the consumer spending on ethical, responsible or green products which have been increasing steadily. Market studies show that ethical consumerism is growing significantly, and ethical brand values drive purchase decisions.
Responsible gold sourcing therefore is not only a business opportunity and strategy for businesses worldwide, but a “must” for those companies who want to stay relevant for future generations.
Companies that provide their clients with responsible gold products can position and distinguish themselves from others and provide consumers with a more meaningful brand experience, while improving their corporate social responsibility and contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals.

Alliance for responsible mining: Who we are?

Non-Profit Organization established in 2004

Leading global expert on gold artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)

Experience with 150 mines in 24 countries

GOLD AND PRECIOUS METALS MINING

What about recycled gold?

90% of the work force in mining

10% of global gold production

20 million people

A sector with challenges, but…

Mining generally has a poor reputation, and in particular artisanal mining is often associated with:

 Illegality and informality or the funding of armed conflicts

In Honduras, it is estimated that there are 2.500 informal artisanal miners, informal = don’t comply with all mining norms.(legal and economical barriers to the formalization)

– Artisanal miners often live in precarious conditions, there is poor health and safety of workers, and in the worst cases you can find child labor, accidents and deaths.

– Also, gender equality or discrimination may be common.

– ASM is one of the principal sources of mercury pollution and intoxication and you may have seen pictures of vast environmental destruction due to unorganized, illegal mining.

In Honduras : ASM mining communities use approx. 90 T of mercury / year. 

Why are all of these issues so prevalent in the ASM sector?

– Lack the enabling environment to improve their conditions: ASM often isn’t supported by the state but may be ignored, stigmatized or even persecuted

– Where mining legislation does exist its often not applicable or approriate to ASM, forcing these organizations to comply with regulations meant for large scale mining, only adding more barriers for inclusion.

– Often located in remote and unregulated áreas where the state isn’t present and regulation is taken over by locals or other groups

– They also lack access to necessary resources to perform mining in an organized, efficient manner:

– absence of  education and training to formalize.

– zero access to formal banking or finance to develop their activity

– Lack of access to efficient and environmentally friendly tools and technology 

Despite all these challenges this sector has incredible potential to contribute to local & national development. In Honduras, mining sector 100 and 150 USD Million of dollar every year. And the ASM  sector has a great role to play in this aspect an.  ASM  is a source of income for many families

Why engage with ASM?

Risks & Reputation

▪ Risks of not engaging.

▪ Excluding the sector doesn’t contribute to solving its problems but deteriorates the reputation of the sector as a whole.

Corporate Social Responsibility

▪ The biggest positive economic, social and environmental impact to be made in the gold industry is in ASM.

A holistic sourcing policy should be inclusive of gold from artisanal and small-scale mining.

Mining won’t stop

Phaedon Stamatopoulos (Director of Sourcing and Refining Argor-Heraeus)

The risks to source from ASM will be present regardless the existence of LBMA Standard v. 6, 8 or 10. If refiners do not engage with the ASM. The ASM material will take other routes and enter to international gold market. The more other routes take, the more value will be lost to LBMA members. So refiners have to engage and do it appropriately.


You choice matter!

Transforming lives through responsible artesanal and small-scale mining

But how? Buying from certified ASM

More than 370 companies from 33 countries work with Fairmined

1.6 tons and 6M USD of Fairmined Premium invested by miners

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