The Italian jewellery sector in 2019
Positive turnover and production also in 2019
- According to ISTAT data, production in the jewellery and bijoux sector recorded yet another considerable increase in the first 10 months of 2019: +19.5%, for the third year running.
- Turnover also increased considerably: +11.4% between January and October 2019. Turnover increased for the tenth year running.
Evolution in turnover and production in the jewellery sector (var.%)
Jewellery sector: ATECO code 32.1
*2018: January – November
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo, Istat data processing
Price of gold is increasing…
As of the month of May, considerable global economic uncertainty led to a significant increase in the price of gold which quickly exceeded 1,500 dollars an ounce between August and September. It then continued to stand at higher levels than the mean value in 2018.
On average in 2019, the price of gold increased by 15.9% in Euros and 9.7% in dollars.
Monthly gold prices
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo processing on LME data
…with negative effects on global demand
Global demand for gold jewellery reacted rapidly to the new price scenario, recording a significant drop in the third quarter (-15.6%), particularly in two main markets (China and India) and in the Middle East.
Global demand for gold jewellery: trend var.% (tons)
Global demand for gold jewellery: trend var.% by nation
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo on World Gold Council data – Gold Demand Trends
Excellent performances for Italian exports…
In the first nine months of 2019, gold jewellery exports grew by 12.1% in quantity and by 8.8% in value in Euros.
Evolution in gold jewellery exports (trend var.%)
* Codes HS 711319 for gold and other precious materials Source: Intesa Sanpaolo, Istat data processing
…with widespread positive results on (almost) all markets…
Evolution in Italian gold jewellery exports (trend var.%)
Codes HS 711319 for gold and other precious materials
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo, Istat data processing
…and districts
Provincial export figures are only available on a more aggregate level (including costume jewellery) and only in value (not in quantity).
All the districts registered positive development, with the best results in Arezzo.
Italian jewellery and bijoux* in 2019 (var.%)
*Code 32.1 Source: ISTAT data processing
The success of luxury towed by Switzerland, France and Italy
Global gold jewellery export rates* (%)
N.B. Net of flows to and from the United Arab Emirates and between China and Hong Kong
*Code 711319 Source: processing on UNCTAD Comtrade data
Excellent results in the USA
USA gold jewellery import rates* (%)
*Code 711319 Source: processing on US Trade data
The prospects for the next few months
Global trade picking up but trends showing modest growth
Variations are calculated on the CPB monthly world trade index. The shaded area shows forecasts. Source: Intesa Sanpaolo data processing
Forecasts for 2021
- Slight recovery in the first six months of 2020 but annual figure lower than 2019 due to a disadvantageous towing effect.
- A slight acceleration (of annual data) expected in 2021, also due to trade agreements.
GDP growth forecasts
Source: Refinitiv-Datastream and Intesa Sanpaolo data processing
From Asia, the first signs of cycle stabilization
The OECD forecast indicator for China confirms the turnaround
Source: OECD
Global SME manufacturing benefits from the recovery of emerging countries
Source: IHS Markit
Growth towards potential
Source: Refinitiv-Datastream
Manufacturing heading towards stabilization
Source: Refinitiv-Datastream
Growth in consumption sustained by solid ready income dynamics
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
Families are very optimistic
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
The unemployment rate is at a minimum since the end of 1969…
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
…with salary dynamics speeding up
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
Salary and employment growth supports incomes and consumption
Source: Eurostat and Intesa Sanpaolo projections
Correct primary balance for the cycle: 2020 budgets show a modest slowdown (0.3% at the Eurozone level)
Source: European Commission
Foreign demand more favourable in 2020
In the Euro area, foreign demand should partially recover over the next few quarters
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo estimates and Oxford Economics
Italy: still modest growth
- In 2020, we expect a slight acceleration to 0.3% (0.4% incorrect for working days) from 0.2% in 2019.
- A growth of 0.5% expected in 2021.
GDP increasing in the last few quarters despite a drop in industrial activity
Source: Refinitiv-Datastream, Istat and Intesa Sanpaolo processing
Budget law: resources destined for VAT blockage
The latest modifications have seen an easing and deferral of the plastic tax until July, a postponement of the sugar tax until October and a substantial zeroing of the squeeze on company cars. The manoeuvre has risen to 32 billion.
Interventions (impact in billions on 2020)
Coverage (impact in billions on 2020)
Note: effect on net debt in billions
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo processing on DPB 2020
Steady consumption thanks to good ready income dynamics
The various GDP components contribution to growth
Source: Refinitiv-Datastream, Istat and Intesa Sanpaolo processing
Growth can begin again in the medium term
The drop in interest rates leads to savings for the State and a boost in GDP growth
The re-acceleration of monetary aggregates (whose turnaround has always preceded that of the cycle) is a hopeful sign of a future growth in GDP in the medium term
Note: cumulated effects on the GDP of a 100 base-point drop in returns on Government bonds in the medium to long term (more or less in line with that registered in the last 6 months) (% deviation from the baseline) and on PA expenditure due to interests (in % of GDP).
Source: Banca d’Italia, MEF, Intesa Sanpaolo processing
Precious material prices
Geopolitical uncertainty should continue in 2020 to support the price of gold which, in our expectations, should continue on a consolidation course, remaining within the mean in 2020 at around 1,500$/troy ounce, with a potential risk of increase deriving from ample liquidity on the markets and expansive monetary policies in all areas.
Price of gold ($/troy ounce)
Source: processing on LME data
Euro in slight improvement against the USD within a 12-month horizon
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo
Important Information
The economists drafting this report state that the opinions, forecasts, and estimates contained herein are the result of independent and subjective evaluation of the data and information obtained and no part of their compensation has been, is, or will be directly or indirectly linked to the views expressed.
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